Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[msstateguy83]

compare forecast data to current obs up north the front is surging!

[rainman31]

In regards to ntxw statement. I noticed that too, in fact I looked at the forecast for the 7th and it's almost 70. with several days around that in the upper sixties for highs.

[serenata09]

Where was the front forecast to be at right now? From what I can tell, seems like it is just going through OKC.

[Peanut432]

I don't know about the front but the prefrontal wind shift as passed Hollis which is as west in southwest OK possible..... 20-30 miles ene of Childress fyi

[msstateguy83]

areas in nc ok have dropped over 15+ degrees in the last 3 hrs.... almost into the upper 30s now near ponca city.. 44 as far south as kingfisher

[msstateguy83]

Per the 00 nam IT IS LAGGING THE FRONT... LOOK @ TEMPS 3 HOURS OUT ON THE CURRENT NAM.. HAS IT IN THE 50S IN NC OK... its currently in the upper 30s to low 40s!

[Extremeweatherguy]

With this storm aside, JB this morning mentioned that the EC family showed warming trends next week for early Feb which is contrary to what I had believed with the stepping down process. Though the GFS lately seem to agree on the warmth. Any thoughts?

JB does not believe we will see widespread lasting warmth though. He is still thinking that most of the U.S. (especially the further east you go) will experience a fairly chilly February.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Per the 00 nam IT IS LAGGING THE FRONT... LOOK @ TEMPS 3 HOURS OUT ON THE CURRENT NAM.. HAS IT IN THE 50S IN NC OK... its currently in the upper 30s to low 40s!

Yeah, the models don't seem to be doing so well with upstream temperatures this evening. This could potentially have huge impacts on the forecasted changeover line timing and location for tomorrow if the trends continue.

[msstateguy83]

[Peanut432]

Does that mean that the storm is shifting south pulling the front? Are the two even related or am I way off? Also does that equal more snow and less ice for Childress area? Sorry for all the questions guys I trying to learn and thanks in advance

[rainman31]

So is the front carving a line through the middle of OK.

[wxman57]

I wouldn't get too excited. Timing looks pretty good compared to models across OK. Out of curiosity, I plotted the 18Z NAM meteogram for Ponca City and Oklahoma City (below). The red "X" represents actual temps at noon, 3pm, 6pm and 8pm. As you can see, the NAM is doing pretty good with the front:

[Extremeweatherguy]

Thanks for posting that wxman57. Yeah, it looks like the NAM is actually doing pretty well in Oklahoma this evening. Impressive. The NAM doesn't seem to be doing so well further north up into Kansas though. The 18z NAM had Dodge City sitting between 35-36F at this point of the night, but the current temperature in the city is 30F (5-6 degrees colder). The same is true in Wichita. The 18z NAM had them at 35-38F right now, but their actual temperature is 32F (3-6 degrees colder). Do you think this trend of colder-than-guidance readings could spread from Kansas into Oklahoma as the night progresses and the colder air continues to be reinforced from the north?

[gboudx]

Can someone explain how the forecasts on the NWS are derived? I just clicked on the forecast for my area, and I see on Thu night a 90% of freezing rain with up to 0.1" of ice possible. And a 40% chance on Fri of freezing drizzle, with a high of 33. Then later I clicked on the same area and the forecast is all rain, with a high of 38 on Friday. Click Reload and it's back to the frozen precip. What's going on?

[Weatherdude20]

Dodge City's current observation is 27

[serenata09]

Can someone explain how the forecasts on the NWS are derived? I just clicked on the forecast for my area, and I see on Thu night a 90% of freezing rain with up to 0.1" of ice possible. And a 40% chance on Fri of freezing drizzle, with a high of 33. Then later I clicked on the same area and the forecast is all rain, with a high of 38 on Friday. Click Reload and it's back to the frozen precip. What's going on?

I know - same issue here.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Dodge City's current observation is 27

Yeah, the new report came in a few minutes after I posted.

Dodge City was supposed to be 35.2F at 9pm according to the NAM, so a report of 27F means that they are now officially running 8.2 degrees below NAM guidance. The GFS was a little closer (showing 32.2F for 9pm), but was still 5.2 degrees too warm.

It will be interesting to see if this also becomes a trend downstream later tonight.

[Peanut432]

FXUS64 KAMA 280301 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
901 PM CST WED JAN 27 2010

.UPDATE...
MID LEVEL ECHOES CONTINUED TO INCREASE ON THE 88D FOR POINTS SOUTH
AND WEST OF KAMA INDICATING INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BAROCLINIC LEAF AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE ENE...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT CROSSES THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE COLD FRONT HAS MADE
ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AREAWDIE. TEMPS BEHIND
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT...FALLING
INTO THE MID 20S ON AVERAGE. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE LATE TONIGHT...CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE REMOVED FOR THE
EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP AFTER 09Z...WITH 100 POPS AREAWIDE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. GIVEN THE PRECIP AND COLD ADVECTION...MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE REACHED THURSDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 20S
BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS FOR THURSDAY WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THIS
THINKING.

PRECIP TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN REGARDING THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
AT THIS TIME...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ZONES SEEING MAINLY SNOW...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX WITH SLEET EARLY
IN THE EVENT. ACROSS THE SOUTH...INITIAL RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LATER TONIGHT AS TEMPS FALL. THE
TRANSITION FROM FREEZING TO FROZEN PRECIP WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT
AMARILLO AROUND 8 AM AS FREEZING RAIN CHANGES OVER TO SLEET...
EVENTUALLY MIXING WITH SNOW. BY NOON...THIS SHOULD BE ALL SNOW.
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE...IT WILL TAKE LONGER TO TRANSITION
AWAY FROM FREEZING RAIN. THIS IS WHERE THE BIGGEST ICING POTENTIAL
WILL BE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1/4 OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. SNOW TOTALS OF 8
TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA...WITH THE SOUTHEAST ZONES LIKELY SEEING LOWER TOTALS DUE
TO A SLOWER TRANSITION FROM THE ICE. IN ADDITION TO THE
PRECIPITATION...SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS COULD
RESULT IN CONDITIONS THAT APPROACH BLIZZARD CRITERIA. WILL RAMP UP
WORDING IN THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING TO MENTION NEAR BLIZZARD
POTENTIAL. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND
WILL RESULT IN BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW. ALL SAID...THIS LOOKS TO BE
A HIGH END WINTER EVENT FOR ALL OF THE CWA. THE UPDATED FORECAST WILL
BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

JOHNSON

[katheria]

where exactly is the front located at this time?

[Weatherdude20]

Areas shaded in green will see an all rain event.

Areas in yellow have a slight chance for minor icing.

Areas in red need to be on high alert, depending on when the cold front comes through, will determine what type of precip falls after the Thursday rain event. Due to an extended period of Mix Precip icing up to .25" is possible.

Areas in purple could see .30" of ice due to Freezing rain and sleet. If you live in this region your temps could drop as low as 26 Thursday night.

Areas in Light blue could see a signifigant Winter Storm with Rain changing to Freezing Rain throughout the day turnung to sleet then snow gradually until precip is done on late Friday morning. By then areas here could see .25" or more of accumulated ice, and snow possibly 1-2 inches. If you live, or know someone in these areas please be careful and be ready in advance to take some action.

http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/3969/icemap.gif

Stay tuned.....

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.