Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[wxman57]

New GFS 12Z meteogram for D-FW airport area. Shows precip ending in the area with the temperature of 35F or higher tomorrow.

The temperatures on the model meteograms seem worthless. For example, the 12z NAM model has at temperature of 42 for the high today in Wichita Falls, its already 35 and falling. The models are busting across most locations in Oklahoma and North Texas. Throw them out.

Yes, a slight error in positioning of the front can make a big difference in precip type. I added a 12Z NAM image for Wichita Falls (above). Note that it forecasts a temp of 39-40F for now but the current temp at the airport is now 34F. The front sagged a bit more south there than the NAM had expected.

I made a 12Z GFS meteogram for Wichita Falls. It seems to be doing a little better with the frontal position than the NAM. It's only 2 deg. too warm with the current temps.

[HockeyTx82]

:uarrow: So when should we expect to see a change in the forecast from the Ft Worth Office or any possible warnings or advisories to go up for Denton or more of NTX?

Would everyone agree that what we are seeing is not what the models showed yesterday and things are turing into a more possible frozen precip event?

Just looked at yesterday's GFS 2m data for the D-FW airport and it's right on as far as temps. The low center has formed just WNW-NW of Abilene. Cold front extends to the east to just north of Dallas and also to the southwest of the low. It's going to be hard for that sub-freezing air to move south through Dallas until tomorrow when the low center and upper trof pass. And that's when the precip will come to an end. So it doesn't look like a big ice problem for the D-FW Metroplex.

Thanks for the feedback. Do you see any chance that Mother Nature could give us a surprise and slip that 32F line further south? Is there anything I can do to make it slip further south?

[wxman57]

Thanks for the feedback. Do you see any chance that Mother Nature could give us a surprise and slip that 32F line further south?

Mother Nature would never do that! However, in her defense, it's always difficult to pinpoint exactly where that boundary will set up between freezing and sub-freezing air.

Time for lunch!

[gboudx]

DFW staying put.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1119 AM CST THU JAN 28 2010

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. DECIDED TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDER OVERNIGHT DOWN SOUTH...AND
ADDED SOME SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AREAS NORTH OF A DENTON
TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME LIFT LINGERS
OVER THAT AREA. AS FOR THE OTHER PARAMETERS...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
CHANGING MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES BEYOND TODAY.

ALL-IN-ALL...THE MODEL FORECASTS OF THIS SYSTEM HAS REMAINED
FAIRLY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THERE HAS
BEEN SOME SLIGHT UPPER LOW/TROUGH TRAJECTORY DISPLACEMENT...BUT
THIS HAS NOT RESULT IN ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE EXISTING FORECAST.
THE WSW WILL CONTINUE AS IS FOR NOW.

[msstateguy83]

reports of 18 wheeler accident on i-44 south of walters ok near the ok/tx stateline

[srainhoutx]

Report: Heavy Freezing rain in Quanah at this time, 31 degrees, winds at 15-25 and ice accumlations of 1/4" on power lines, perhaps 1/2" on trees.

[msstateguy83]

we have had some frz rain here over the last little bit nothing to major yet but i know its on the way... iam getting the whole 9 yard ready for power to be out later this eve @ my place iam sure it will at this rate

[HockeyTx82]

Well at this point I am ok with whatever happens. I just got a promotion here at work!!!!

Some frozen stuff would still be nice, having tomorrow off would not be to bad.........

[Weatherdude20]

http://weather.weatherbug.com/TX/Wichit ... code=z6286

WICHITA FALLS HAS DROPPED TO 32!


http://weather.weatherbug.com/TX/Gaines ... code=z6286

GAINESVILLE HAS DROPPED TO 36!

[HockeyTx82]

If anyone is interested this is a webcam that the construction company has setup here at UNT so we can watch the new football stadium being built. It is really good quality. It takes a picture every few min.

http://oxblue.com/pro/open/unt/stadium?DB_OEM_ID=1800

Check it out, let me know what you think.

And here is a live webcam on the UNT campus, can't see the sky but still cool to look at.

http://129.120.145.7/view/view.shtml

[Peanut432]

Congrats on the promotion.

Heavy sleet in Hollis right now. It appears on radar that a large area of moderate to heavy sleet/freezing about to move over parts of southwest OK , se texas panhandle and NW Texas

[HockeyTx82]

Congrats on the promotion.

Heavy sleet in Hollis right now. It appears on radar that a large area of moderate to heavy sleet/freezing about to move over parts of southwest OK , se texas panhandle and NW Texas

Thank you! Would you say this the radar here is showing more then rain?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[rainman31]

I have 47.7 here in Denton on my weather station. I thought temps would have dropped more by now. Long way to go before freezing.

[HockeyTx82]

I have 47.7 here in Denton on my weather station. I thought temps would have dropped more by now.

Mine at home is always a few degrees warmer then the temp at the air port. Your home or the structure it is by might has some heat built up and thus keeping it a bit warmer.

[DentonGal]

I have 47.7 here in Denton on my weather station. I thought temps would have dropped more by now.

They did drop to about 42, then they started rising again! Go figure!

[HockeyTx82]

I have 47.7 here in Denton on my weather station. I thought temps would have dropped more by now.

They did drop to about 42, then they started rising again! Go figure!

Did not realize that, could explain it. I think someone a few posts back said the rain might bring some "warm" air down with it.........

[rainman31]

I have 47.7 here in Denton on my weather station. I thought temps would have dropped more by now.

Mine at home is always a few degrees warmer then the temp at the air port. Your home or the structure it is by might has some heat built up and thus keeping it a bit warmer.

Yes, my usually runs a little warm as well.

[txagwxman]

Looks like the models are underestimating the strength of the wetbulbing and the colder air to the north of the front...so Fort Worth (and NW/W sides) may get to 32F tomorrow morning, once the winds shift to the NW.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like the models are underestimating the strength of the wetbulbing and the colder air to the north of the front...so Fort Worth (and NW/W sides) may get to 32F tomorrow morning, once the winds shift to the NW.

Agreed. Sort of concerned with the slow movement of the 5H low as well.

[msstateguy83]

srainhoutx iam very concerned we are gonna see something widespread as far as damage path from ice, it does seem to be slowing quite a bit...