Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

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Weatherdude20

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#4861 Postby Weatherdude20 » Thu Jan 28, 2010 6:09 pm

http://weather.weatherbug.com/TX/Denton ... code=z6286

DENTON dropped to 39 as cold air spills over the border.....
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#4862 Postby HockeyTx82 » Thu Jan 28, 2010 6:12 pm

Is that showing the Low further south?

Things look to be on track or can we expect some suprises by chance later on?
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#4863 Postby Texas Snowman » Thu Jan 28, 2010 6:15 pm

38 degrees.

Thunder, lightning, and a frog strangling heavy rain.

Gusty winds out of the NE.

And a fire burning in the wood burning stove.

Priceless! :sun:
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Re: Re:

#4864 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Jan 28, 2010 6:16 pm

Ntxw wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:
Ntxw wrote:What is the upper low hanging around southeast AZ going to do? It hasn't really moved much except maybe the slightest east.


Image


Does that look any bit ominous to you Srain? HPC has changed that like almost every run. :wink: Odd how the nam decided to keep something behind.


And to think the 10272010 12Z NAM started all the fuss yesterday. :wink:
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#4865 Postby katheria » Thu Jan 28, 2010 6:18 pm

winds switching to north per my weather station, temp finally dropping 50.1
rain: .78
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Re: Re:

#4866 Postby HockeyTx82 » Thu Jan 28, 2010 6:21 pm

Does that look any bit ominous to you Srain? HPC has changed that like almost every run. :wink: Odd how the nam decided to keep something behind.[/quote]

And to think the 10272010 12Z NAM started all the fuss yesterday. :wink:[/quote]

What you you all seeing on there? I am not following......
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#4867 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jan 28, 2010 6:24 pm

The low center is over Camanche County, TX now. All the heavy precip has moved east of Wichita Falls. Should be only very light precip there tonight. Temperature now 33 at SPS. So it appears the threat for any significant icing in the Wichita Falls area is diminishing. By significant icing, I mean damaging freezing rain that knocks down trees and power lines. The big problems will be north of the Red River (and TX Panhandle).
Last edited by wxman57 on Thu Jan 28, 2010 6:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#4868 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jan 28, 2010 6:25 pm

And to think the 10272010 12Z NAM started all the fuss yesterday. :wink:


It may have been the outlier, doesn't look like it was on too much crack now does it? :wink:
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#4869 Postby Weatherdude20 » Thu Jan 28, 2010 6:33 pm

Local temps!!!!!!!!!!

Denton 38
Gainesville 35 (Reporting MIX PRECIP!)
Bowie 35
DECATUR 33
Jacksboro 39

Currently 43 here!
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#4870 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jan 28, 2010 6:34 pm

From the latest DFW AFD:

"WE HAVE NOT MODIFIED THE WSW (WINTER STORM ADVISORY) THIS AFTERNOON
AS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PRECIP TYPES CONTINUE TO INDICATE LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE OR SNOW...ONLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE IS ABOVE FREEZING. ONCE THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES COOL TO FREEZING OR BELOW LATE TONIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION PROCESS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SLOW WITH ONLY LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS (1/10 MAYBE UP TO 2/10S) EXPECTED. THE WINTRY MIX
(FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND MAYBE LIGHT SNOW GRAINS) WILL SLIDE
DOWN THE RED RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY AND LINGER FROM GAINESVILLE TO
PARIS AND SULPHUR SPRINGS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STILL DO NOT EXPECT
ANY MORE THAN 1/10 OF ICE OR SNOW IN THIS AREA."

Yes, the models did an excellent job as far as predicting that the heavy precip would end in both Dallas-Ft. Worth up to Wichita Falls prior to the arrival of sub-freezing temps. Just a light icing potential NW of DFW up to SPS tonight.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#4871 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Jan 28, 2010 6:39 pm

Impressive disturbance rotating beneath the base of the trough at this time. Could get rather interesting for Central TX and points E a bit later...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#4872 Postby Weatherdude20 » Thu Jan 28, 2010 6:57 pm

Current conditions at Amarillo Rick-Husband International Airport

Heavy Snow, Blowing Snow, Freezing Fog, and Breezy 16 °F.


Hahaha worse possible conditions...
Last edited by Weatherdude20 on Thu Jan 28, 2010 6:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#4873 Postby mrgolf » Thu Jan 28, 2010 6:58 pm

WXMAN57,my name is kevin.I live 5 minutes south of memphis in southaven,ms.I wanted to ask your expert opinion since you are a met.We are under a winterstorm warning starting tonight midnight through friday night.Do you agree with that,and do you agree with the HPC surfacelow track thats displayed? I also have two more things to ask. 1. Where do you see the 500,850,and 700mb lows tracking? 2. Do you know larry cosgrove?He is a good guy and very informative on his newsletters. I hope to see some wintry precip in my area
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#4874 Postby msstateguy83 » Thu Jan 28, 2010 7:05 pm

just wanted to pick some brains about next wk, beyond anyone thinking some big sometime later next wk or whats your thoughts on the hints of a big feb? just currious others thoughts i know we have a on going event but if you wanna chat or discuss your thoughts pm me =)

on the other hand yup we made in up here in sps everything fine
power still on thank god but things are not so well up in oklahoma up along i-44 i've heard of transmission towers coming down including via ham radio reports of the noaa wx radio tower near lawton..
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#4875 Postby rainman31 » Thu Jan 28, 2010 7:23 pm

I don't get it temps are rising again. It got down to 43 now back up to 45.3
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#4876 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jan 28, 2010 7:25 pm

mrgolf wrote:WXMAN57,my name is kevin.I live 5 minutes south of memphis in southaven,ms.I wanted to ask your expert opinion since you are a met.We are under a winterstorm warning starting tonight midnight through friday night.Do you agree with that,and do you agree with the HPC surfacelow track thats displayed? I also have two more things to ask. 1. Where do you see the 500,850,and 700mb lows tracking? 2. Do you know larry cosgrove?He is a good guy and very informative on his newsletters. I hope to see some wintry precip in my area


Hi, Kevin,

I do agree with the warning. Just looked at model guidance for your area and it shows about 1.5 inches of precipitation from mid morning to about midnight tomorrow. During that time, your temperature is projected to be between 25-29 degrees. Checking a projected vertical temperature profile, it looks like a mostly sleet and snow event, but starting out with some freezing rain. May not be more than 1/4" accumulation of freezing rain, though. Memphis and nearby communities will become a winter wonderland by tomorrow afternoon.
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Re:

#4877 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Jan 28, 2010 7:29 pm

msstateguy83 wrote:just wanted to pick some brains about next wk, beyond anyone thinking some big sometime later next wk or whats your thoughts on the hints of a big feb? just currious others thoughts i know we have a on going event but if you wanna chat or discuss your thoughts pm me =)


A great place to start is here (see link). Certainly we will move back into the TX Topic as things progress. donsutherland1 is certainly one of the best analyst you'll find like with our Pro Mets. A wealth of information can be learned... :wink:

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=107373&start=40
Last edited by srainhoutx on Thu Jan 28, 2010 7:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#4878 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jan 28, 2010 7:30 pm

rainman31 wrote:I don't get it temps are rising again. It got down to 43 now back up to 45.3


The current RUC sounding for Denton (DTO) shows very strong low-level southerly winds overhead just above the surface (40-50 kts at 5000 ft). The strong warm advection aloft is keeping your surface temps from falling. You'll have to wait for the surface low to go by so that warm advection is shut off. And once the surface low passes, the moisture goes with it, so only light precip in the cold air.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#4879 Postby mrgolf » Thu Jan 28, 2010 7:40 pm

WXMAN57,i hope your not looking at the 18zgfs?Ive heard thats not the most reliable models since its partially ingesting data compared to 0z and 12zgfs.The 18zgfs did show close to a foot or more for my area based on twisterdata.com and it is closer to the event.Remember,i live 5 minutes south of memphis.makes a huge difference sometimes when it comes to wintry precip.Do you honestly think i will be ok where i live?We always seem to be on the fence.Im sorry,i like to ask alot of questions when it comes to events like these. :)
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#4880 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Jan 28, 2010 7:46 pm

ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
TXZ000-
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/28/10 2302Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 2245Z JBN
.
LOCATION... CENTRAL TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...TRAINING CONVECTION/HVY RAIN
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER SW NM AND MOVING ENE. SEVERAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO
ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE WITH ONE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN MX MOVING TOWARD
SW TX. IR IMAGERY SHOWS A SECOND CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS DEVELOPED OVER
CNTRL TEXAS BEHIND INITIAL LINE OF STORMS NOW CROSSING THE DALLAS/FT
WORTH METROPLEX. CLOUD TOPS ARE SHOWING A COOLING AND EXPANDING TREND
IN IR IMAGERY AND A FEW OVERSHOOTING TOPS CAN BE SEEN IN VIS IMAGERY
NEAR KBBD. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BACK BUILD ON THE TAIL END OF THIS
COMPLEX TO THE BIG BEND REGION AND IS MOVING NEWD ALONG THE SAME PATH
AS THIS COMPLEX RESULTING IN TRAINING. THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN
A STRONG AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS TX. RAIN RATES OF AT LEAST 1-1.5"/HR ARE PROBABLY
OCCURRING WITH THE CONVECTION WITH RATES AS HIGH AS 2"/HR POSSIBLE WHERE
CELL MERGERS OR OVERSHOOTING TOPS ARE OCCURRING.
.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER CNTRL
TX AND MOVE NEWD AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN MEXICO MOVES E. AN OVERALL
EXPANSION OF THE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR AS THE SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN TX. THIS MAY RESULT IN A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA BEING AFFECTED BY MOD/HVY RAINFALL THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS
WITH CONVECTION TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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