Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[srainhoutx]

An Image you don't see every day...

[Ntxw]

Might see a few more times before winter is out

[wxman57]

WXMAN57,i hope your not looking at the 18zgfs?Ive heard thats not the most reliable models since its partially ingesting data compared to 0z and 12zgfs.The 18zgfs did show close to a foot or more for my area based on twisterdata.com and it is closer to the event.Remember,i live 5 minutes south of memphis.makes a huge difference sometimes when it comes to wintry precip.Do you honestly think i will be ok where i live?We always seem to be on the fence.Im sorry,i like to ask alot of questions when it comes to events like these.

12Z and 18Z models were quite similar for both GFS and NAM. Both indicating in the 3-5" accumulation range there. 5 minutes?!! Takes me 5 minutes to exit my neighborhood. That's insignificant. Well, maybe if it was 5 minutes by high-speed jet. Who said you'd be OK? Yeah, the trees probably won't take down all the power lines, but travel will come to a halt.

[txagwxman]

Tornado watch Hill country...NAM shows limited instability over Houston tomorrow morning 4AM-7AM...but I have my doubts on this...GFS shows cape 600 joules DWH at 7AM...if isolated cell goes up it will rotate especially if something goes up ahead of the front.

So pay attention tonight on the NW side of Houston 3AM-6AM.

[srainhoutx]

Tornado watch Hill country...NAM shows limited instability over Houston tomorrow morning 4AM-7AM...but I have my doubts on this...GFS shows cape 600 joules DWH at 7AM...if isolated cell goes up it will rotate especially if something goes up ahead of the front.

So pay attention tonight on the NW side of Houston 3AM-6AM.

Agree strongly txagwxman. This event is far from over for TX.

[Weatherdude20]

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 5&map.y=27

Snow in Gainesville....

I knew something was up, because on earlier on weatherbug they were at 35 degrees.
And the last 2 reports before this were unknown precip now snow....
This is confusing... I could have swore it was sleeting out here earlier but idk....

[serenata09]

So is this definitely sealed as a non-event (winter precip wise) for DFW?

[txagwxman]

So is this definitely sealed as a non-event (winter precip wise) for DFW?

Never say never...still have the short-wave to the west and PVA to deal with tomorrow...maybe NW of DFW side sees sleet pellet/snow flurry late as cold advection sets in aloft...but don't get excited about it.


NWS freezing drizzle FTW...

[msstateguy83]

i have been so busy this eve i have not had time to look over latest model runs BUT oun last disc says 1-3 from w.falls up into central, sc ok tomorrow and that may need to be even higher due to model trends!!

[serenata09]

Any thing new with the 00z run?

[orangeblood]

Looks like a little surprise on the 00z NAM. It looks quite a bit colder for Friday morning across North Texas. According to the model printout I'm looking at, it is forecasting quite a bit more snow than previously forecasted across the northwest half of north texas. Say northwest of a line from Granbury to Fort Worth to Denton line - up to 1 inch of snow with possibly up to 3 inches out towards Mineral Wells to Bowie. I think the winter weather advisory needs to be shifted a little farther southeast than what they have now.

[msstateguy83]

i would add i think there could be big bursts of snow up along the red river from w.falls into sc, central ok.. wouldnt be shocked to see some get over 6"+ we will see...

[Ntxw]

FW is hesitant to buy into the chance from tonight's models. The Canadian shows a 'surprise' bit also for tomorrow possibly.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1135 PM CST THU JAN 28 2010

.AVIATION...
NORTHEAST AND EAST WINDS ARE PRESENT AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT BUT
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY DAYBREAK BEHIND A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL TAPER OFF AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY OR DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. ALL PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM AT THIS
TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FZDZ/-FZRA IN
THE METROPLEX FRIDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
IFR/LIFR UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE RAIN ENDS AND WILL THEN
IMPROVE TO MVFR.

[txagwxman]

Wake up people on the NW side of Houston!!!

Tornado watch imminent.

[srainhoutx]

I'm awake! Didn't see an MD yet though from SPC.

Now I do...\\MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0083
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX/UPPER TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 290922Z - 291045Z

A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TX/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. A WATCH IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TRIPLE
POINT VIA A SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT/ADJACENT WEAK WARM
FRONT...A SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO STEADILY
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT
SOME INTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE/COLD POOL CONSOLIDATION
HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST HOUR AS IT CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE I-45
CORRIDOR /AROUND 50-75 MILES N-NW OF HOUSTON AS OF 0915Z/. STRONG
LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS/AMPLE LOW LEVEL SRH
CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND AND/OR BRIEF TORNADO
RISK...BUT WITH MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION LIKELY ELEVATED IN
NATURE...THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IS A STABLE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS LIMITED TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WHILE SMALL SCALE
BOWS/EMBEDDED BOUTS OF TRANSIENT ROTATION MAY EXIST WITH THE
CONVECTIVE LINE AND/OR DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF IT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...THE POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE DOWNDRAFTS/ROTATION TO
REACH THE GROUND APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. SOME MAINLY
SUB-SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

..GUYER.. 01/29/2010


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

[txagwxman]

Wake up people on the NW side of Houston!!!

Tornado watch imminent.

I am watching rotation just west of Tomball.

[txagwxman]

Wake up people on the NW side of Houston!!!

Tornado watch imminent.

I am watching rotation just west of Tomball.

Yikes...just west of where I live.

[srainhoutx]

Saty safe txagwxman... N of me ATT

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
353 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 AM CST

* AT 351 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STAGECOACH... MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
STAGECOACH PINEHURST AND MAGNOLIA.

[txagwxman]

Saty safe txagwxman... N of me ATT

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
353 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 AM CST

* AT 351 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STAGECOACH... MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
STAGECOACH PINEHURST AND MAGNOLIA.

North of me too...my winds have veered to the SW now...I hate waking up with meso to my west and ESE wind.

[srainhoutx]

Are seeing rotation near Katy txagwxman as well?