Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Ntxw]

Random thought: one thing Harold Taft used to point out in these situations is that the freezing temperature of water (32F) is also the melting point of ice. It really needs to be below 32 for water to freeze to solid ice.

That's not factoring in contaminants and supercooled droplets into the equation, of course...but a general rule that works most of the time.

That is very true. Only problem here is that there is cold air advection involved and it's progressively getting colder rather than warming up at least for N Tx.

[jasons2k]

It will work east into the Metro.

I dunno about that. It doesn't look very promising to my eyes. If you want to see more precip in the DFW area I would look more SW towards Stephenville and there just isn't anything there left to move-in.

[Weatherdude20]

What I'm still thinking based on data, models, and the NWS, is that a new snow band will develop and move towards the Metroplex.

[jasons2k]

Random thought: one thing Harold Taft used to point out in these situations is that the freezing temperature of water (32F) is also the melting point of ice. It really needs to be below 32 for water to freeze to solid ice.

That's not factoring in contaminants and supercooled droplets into the equation, of course...but a general rule that works most of the time.

That is very true. Only problem here is that there is cold air advection involved and it's progressively getting colder rather than warming up at least for N Tx.

Yeah, but no moisture left to work with...and at this rate DFW won't fall to freezing for several more hours.

[Weatherdude20]

Its 31 here...

[Ntxw]

Random thought: one thing Harold Taft used to point out in these situations is that the freezing temperature of water (32F) is also the melting point of ice. It really needs to be below 32 for water to freeze to solid ice.

That's not factoring in contaminants and supercooled droplets into the equation, of course...but a general rule that works most of the time.

That is very true. Only problem here is that there is cold air advection involved and it's progressively getting colder rather than warming up at least for N Tx.

Yeah, but no moisture left to work with...and at this rate DFW won't fall to freezing for several more hours.

I never bought into our precip chances this morning at least for the metro. My concern was the water leftover from the rain which there are puddles and standing water if not on the main roads, the side streets.

[jasons2k]

What I'm still thinking based on data, models, and the NWS, is that a new snow band will develop and move towards the Metroplex.

What data?

I'm looking at a good old-fashioned water vapor loop and the upper disturbance is now almost due west of DFW and all the lift with it, on its NE side, is moving into Oklahoma. This places the DFW area to its southeast (and eventually S, then SW quadrants)...not the spot you want to be for redevelopment.

Maybe after the axis passes there could be a wrap-around flurry or two, but I wouldn't bet anything on it.

[jasons2k]

I never bought into our precip chances this morning at least for the metro. My concern was the water leftover from the rain which there are puddles and standing water if not on the main roads, the side streets.

I can see how that would be a concern, but that's rarely an issue with this little moisture, so much lead time before freezing temps set in, and the ground still relatively warm. I just don't forsee any travel impacts to the DFW area from this system.

That's not to say there can't be some isolated rogue ice patch somewhere tomorrow morning...but I think odds are there will be more hazards from people/businesses running the sprinklers than any leftover precip freezing on the road. This just isn't the "event" for the DFW area that some had hoped for. Maybe next time if long-term indications hold the line.

[Weatherdude20]

Light flurries, and dropped to 30.7 now.

[Ntxw]

In regards to the long term, Srainhoutx has mentioned the pattern change and possibly setting up a cross polar flow situation in February. Currently it is 50 below and colder in a large area of Siberia.

[natlib]

Had a nice little 10 minute snow burst in San Angelo before lunch from some wraparound. Looks like its all over now. Just enought to make the roofs white and thats it.

So when is next event?????

[Weatherdude20]

30.2, Flurries, and very light snow.

[BrokenGlass]

30.2, Flurries, and very light snow.

Bragger. 37.5 and misty in Richardson.

[Ntxw]

Had a nice little 10 minute snow burst in San Angelo before lunch from some wraparound. Looks like its all over now. Just enought to make the roofs white and thats it.

So when is next event?????

Nothing exciting winter-wise from today's GFS or EC, but if you like amazing classic cool looking pacific\baja low type of storm with lots of rain, next wed\thurs is your time! Bring on the watermans!

[Weatherdude20]

Well its misreable because now it stopped snowing... Its just 30 and overcast, waiting for round 2 later =)

[Weatherdude20]

Has dropped to 29, Frz Drz and Lt Snow falling. Trees and roofs shiny, and small ice cicles forming...

[natlib]

Had a nice little 10 minute snow burst in San Angelo before lunch from some wraparound. Looks like its all over now. Just enought to make the roofs white and thats it.

So when is next event?????

Nothing exciting winter-wise from today's GFS or EC, but if you like amazing classic cool looking pacific\baja low type of storm with lots of rain, next wed\thurs is your time! Bring on the watermans!

A West Texan never complains about the rain......but I'm hoping for some more snow in February.

[Weatherdude20]

Anyone have any ideas on where that snow band near Jacksboro is heading? Its kind of backbuilding, and the NWS said another snow band would move through before 6:00pm and we haven't gotten another yet.... It looks nice on radar !

BTW its 30.4 but has been hovering around 29-31 degrees recently.

[Weatherdude20]

.UPDATE...
THE NAM IS INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF BANDING OF SNOW
FROM ABOUT WEATHERFORD INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHAHOMA. SO SOME SPOTS MAY
SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SLEET AND SNOW...MAINLY ON GRASSY AND
ELEVATED SURFACES...

NAM lied !

[jasons2k]

Anyone have any ideas on where that snow band near Jacksboro is heading? Its kind of backbuilding, and the NWS said another snow band would move through before 6:00pm and we haven't gotten another yet.... It looks nice on radar !

BTW its 30.4 but has been hovering around 29-31 degrees recently.

It's moving off to the ENE. It's on the NE periphery of the ULL center where the best lift is. It's moving out fast, so there won't be much left except maybe some wrap-around flurries or drizzle.