Whats this in GOM?

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chadtm80

Whats this in GOM?

#1 Postby chadtm80 » Sat Aug 09, 2003 12:14 pm

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southerngale
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#2 Postby southerngale » Sat Aug 09, 2003 12:28 pm

Yeah, what's that???
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#3 Postby hurricanedude » Sat Aug 09, 2003 12:36 pm

a cat 5 cane coming right for you SG!!!! LOL
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Suzi Q

WHAT IS THAT?????

#4 Postby Suzi Q » Sat Aug 09, 2003 12:40 pm

Anybody got any opinions, answers....?????? :roll:
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Guest

#5 Postby Guest » Sat Aug 09, 2003 12:41 pm

Experts you thoughts or comments on the NOGAPS model 120 hours out - which is 5 days!
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JetMaxx

#6 Postby JetMaxx » Sat Aug 09, 2003 12:50 pm

Maybe NOGAPS is keying on the new INVEST near 28/50??
I haven't checked the global models this morning. I noticed one of the tropical suite models brought the new INVEST near southeast Florida at the +120 hr mark.
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#7 Postby slosh » Sat Aug 09, 2003 1:34 pm

Is there something brewing in GOM. There is alot of convection caused by the trough, what are the chances of this convection developing?

Just curious about the NOGAPS model. How is NOGAPS accuracy at the 120 mark?

Thanks
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#8 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Aug 09, 2003 1:40 pm

The NOGAPS is the navy model and IMO, isn't exactly the best model for MR, but decent. It, too, has a tendency to overamplify patterns.

In regards to the GOM mess, it is NOT related to 91L ... it seems to be a separate entity of its own looking at the surface plots all the way through. NOGAPS actually somewhat loses 91L but takes it up towards the Southeast Coast.

SF
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90L

#9 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 09, 2003 1:42 pm

I believe it's keying on the wave that was 90L. You can still find the wave south of the Dominican Republic - sans much convection. Check the 00hr NOGAPS and it moves the wave from south of the Dominican Republic into the Gulf.
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Re: 90L

#10 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Aug 09, 2003 1:44 pm

wxman57 wrote:I believe it's keying on the wave that was 90L. You can still find the wave south of the Dominican Republic - sans much convection. Check the 00hr NOGAPS and it moves the wave from south of the Dominican Republic into the Gulf.


You're right, that is 90L.
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#11 Postby Toni - 574 » Sat Aug 09, 2003 2:55 pm

The latest UKMET run takes the system across FL and into the gulf.
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Wrong system

#12 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 09, 2003 3:25 pm

We're talking about the other disturbance here, Toni. The NOGAPS brings the wave now south of the Dominican Republic into the mid Gulf next week.
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#13 Postby Lindaloo » Sat Aug 09, 2003 3:27 pm

i do not know what that red blob is hugging the ms coast. it is hot with plenty of sunshine right now. or is that a pic of a model for next week.
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#14 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Aug 09, 2003 3:30 pm

Lindaloo wrote:i do not know what that red blob is hugging the ms coast. it is hot with plenty of sunshine right now. or is that a pic of a model for next week.


Linda, that's the NOGAPS forecast plots at 120 hrs (5 days away)

SF
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Re: Wrong system

#15 Postby Toni - 574 » Sat Aug 09, 2003 5:27 pm

wxman57 wrote:We're talking about the other disturbance here, Toni. The NOGAPS brings the wave now south of the Dominican Republic into the mid Gulf next week.


Sorry for the confusion guys! Guess I had the right model but the wrong place, or is that the wrong model at the right place. Well, on second thought maybe it's not either one! LOL :o

Again, all kidding aside I will try to do better. :D
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Re: Wrong system

#16 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Aug 09, 2003 5:46 pm

Toni - 574 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:We're talking about the other disturbance here, Toni. The NOGAPS brings the wave now south of the Dominican Republic into the mid Gulf next week.


Sorry for the confusion guys! Guess I had the right model but the wrong place, or is that the wrong model at the right place. Well, on second thought maybe it's not either one! LOL :o

Again, all kidding aside I will try to do better. :D


It's a tricky situation 'cuz the UKMET has a totally different scenario in regards to the remains of 90L and 91L. Not to worry, Toni. :wink:

SF
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#17 Postby Toni - 574 » Sat Aug 09, 2003 8:19 pm

Thanks SF! :)
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#18 Postby Lindaloo » Sun Aug 10, 2003 12:00 am

Stormsfury wrote:
Lindaloo wrote:i do not know what that red blob is hugging the ms coast. it is hot with plenty of sunshine right now. or is that a pic of a model for next week.


Linda, that's the NOGAPS forecast plots at 120 hrs (5 days away)

SF



thanks mike. :)
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#19 Postby southerngale » Sun Aug 10, 2003 11:39 am

hurricanedude wrote:a cat 5 cane coming right for you SG!!!! LOL


YIKES!!! And here I sit on my booty! :roll:
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