Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[orangeblood]

Looking at today's model run, they sure have changed their tone for the next 10-15 days. From what was looking like a blow torch coming to a very well below normal pattern setting up. This is the type of pattern some of the long term mets in the business have been harping about for weeks now. Buckle your seat belts folks, it might be a bumpy few weeks coming up.

[msstateguy83]

orange - i totally agree i use several model sources but was just lookin @ twisterdata and on snowfall depth it is showing crazy amounts over western half of ok into n.tx and esp into the tx panhandle region between the 9th-16th

[Weatherdude20]

orange - i totally agree i use several model sources but was just lookin @ twisterdata and on snowfall depth it is showing crazy amounts over western half of ok into n.tx and esp into the tx panhandle region between the 9th-16th

Awesome

[Ntxw]

Looking at today's model run, they sure have changed their tone for the next 10-15 days. From what was looking like a blow torch coming to a very well below normal pattern setting up. This is the type of pattern some of the long term mets in the business have been harping about for weeks now. Buckle your seat belts folks, it might be a bumpy few weeks coming up.

CPC is buying it. Southern branch is active with systems, which if any of these will have enough cold air to work with? We'll see if this el nino can go out with a bang as many have hoped for...

6-10 days





8-14

[msstateguy83]

[iorange55]

That map is pretty impressive, wow.

[Ntxw]

That map is pretty impressive, wow.

If only it wasn't as far out as far can go on the GFS (sigh) so belief for it is pretty much nil. HOWEVER, el nino Februaries can be notorious for it Fyi the storm effecting us later this week looks very strong out in the pacific. Anyone with plans to the east coast should monitor it closely.

[serenata09]

Freezing Fog Advisory
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1005 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2010

...AREAS OF FREEZING FOG TO FORM ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THROUGH MID MORNING MORNING...

.CLEARING SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO FINALLY OCCUR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
NORTH TEXAS EVENING. THE LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS...SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND MOIST SOILS FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL
WILL ALL COMBINE FOR FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP. WHERE AND HOW
WIDESPREAD ARE UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...WHERE FREEZING FOG DOES DEVELOP...
LIGHT DEPOSITS OF ICE ARE EXPECTED ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-011030-
/O.NEW.KFWD.ZF.Y.0001.100201T0600Z-100201T1500Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...
SULPHUR SPRINGS...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...
BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...
KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...
EDGEWOOD...EMORY...POINT...EAST TAWAKONI...CISCO...EASTLAND...
RANGER...GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...ATHENS...GUN BARREL CITY...
COMANCHE...DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...
MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO...CORSICANA...TEAGUE...
FAIRFIELD...PALESTINE...LAMPASAS...COPPERAS COVE...GATESVILLE...
KILLEEN...TEMPLE...FORT HOOD...WACO...MARLIN...MEXIA...
GROESBECK...BUFFALO...CENTERVILLE...JEWETT...OAKWOOD...CAMERON...
ROCKDALE...HEARNE...FRANKLIN...CALVERT
1005 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2010

...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM CST
MONDAY.

AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF NORTH
TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. COMBINED WITH EXPECTED SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES...ANY THICKER FOG WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEPOSIT
A LIGHT FILM OF ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES...RESULTING IN SLICK AREAS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO NEAR A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. IF DRIVING OVERNIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SLOW DOWN...USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS...AND
LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU. BE ALERT FOR ICY SPOTS
ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...AS THEY TEND TO BECOME
SLICK QUICKLY.

[Ntxw]

A little closer than earlier today, definitely a feast to the eyes.

0z GFS 264hr



276hr

[iorange55]

I like it now if it'll just stay like that, and not change

[Ntxw]

The theme here is an active southern jet. Models keep it active, all it takes is one storm and have it just strong enough to pull that cold air south! If we're expect humungo arctic intrusions i don't think we'll get snow. Always marginal that brings in the good stuff...

[wxgirl69]

Time to put in the crickets soundtrack.

What doe that mean???????

[iorange55]

Time to put in the crickets soundtrack.

What doe that mean???????

He thought since the latest winter threat is over now the board would go quiet. But the GFS has gave us something to look forward too.

[Ntxw]

What he said, the models have changed their tune since then and are latching onto the pattern change.

[wxgirl69]

:uarrow: What he said, the models have changed their tune since then and are latching onto the pattern change.

What kind of change are we looking at? I know Wxman has said we could get some really interesting weather around valentines day... Is this the time frame the models are talking about.

[Ntxw]

Tonight's Canadian is colder with this week's storm. Brings a pretty good nor'easter to the east coast which makes me wonder with the kind of phasing and negative tilt it has if that is any implication of a deeper trough digging further back into the plains.

[aerology]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Posted this back on page 55 still looks valid, thought I'd post it again with update:

One of the problems with the current models is the reference time frame is very narrow for initial conditions, and changes with in the past three days, a lot of times, will introduce presistance of inertia, to the medial flows, for several days, consistent with the actual flows, as the Lunar declinational atmospheric tides, make their runs across the equator from one poleward culmination to another.

Then as the tide turns and we have the severe weather bursts at declinational culmination, they get confused, or surprised, as the initial inertial effects reverse for about four days before the sweep to the other pole, that brings back the smooth flows, the models understand.

So that when the Lunar declination went to Maximum North on December 3rd, turbulence and shear introduced into the atmosphere, from the turning tide, (the models do not know about), surprised them with the usual couple of tornadoes. Now (12-13-09) that we are ~20 degrees South Lunar declination, the models have a full buffer, of five days of linear inertial movement, from the Moon's trip South across the equator (12-09-09) and is slowing it's movement.

Coming up on the Southern extent culmination, producing a secondary tidal bulge in the Northern Hemisphere, bringing us to the mid point of a 27.32 day declinational cycle (one of the four routine patterns that cycle on an 109.3 day period). This particular one (#1) that started back on Dec 3rd, has incursions of polar air masses that come down from Western Canada, through Montana and the Dakotas, to make up the Northern part of the atmospheric tidal bulge.

So I would expect to see a large invasion of cold dry air sweep almost all the way to the Gulf coast again, then the produced frontal boundary with the interesting weather, that includes change state intense precipitation. Freezing rain, where the warm over runs cold, and snow where the cold undercuts the more sluggish warm air, still moving North East by inertia alone, severe weather to form in that trailing edge of the warm moist mass, that gets over taken from behind by the polar air mass that tries to follow the tidal bulge back to the equator, which for the next 4 of 5 days powers up the cyclonic patterns generated by carolis forces, and finishes out as the Moon approaches the equator again.

Expect the same type of interaction again for a primary bulge production by the passage back North, culminating on 12-30-09, pumping in a solid polar air mass very consistent with the pattern we had on 12-03-09, (the North "lunar declination culmination")[LDC], then (#2) the next Rossby wave / jet stream regime pattern, comes back into play with much more zonal flow, and air masses invading from the Pacific, (of the two sub types of) phase with lesser amounts of Gulf moisture entrainment in this one, more in the other #4.

The (#3) third 27.32 day pattern with polar air masses invading in from the Minnesota / Great Lakes area and sweeping out through the Eastern sea board, and mostly zonal flow out west, from 01-27-10 till 02-23-10, comes next.

(current comment,) so here we are on the 1st of February 2010, the moon is crossing the equator headed South, 5 days into the East Canadian cycle (#3) Zonal flow for the western half of the USA, Cold coming down through Minnesota / Great Lakes area for the next three weeks. Southern Plains to see moisture from west coast overriding the cold air that manages to get that far South, Some snow for Texas and Oklahoma.

February 11th thru 13th should see the replay from last year, of the snow/ice storm over Kentucky Tennessee again. Still seeing the surge of Tornadoes and severe weather for the Gulf States mentioned below as a good possibility. (end of added comment)

The fourth 27.32 day cycle, that looks very similar to #2 but with much more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, usually has more hail and tornadoes associated with it than Pattern #4, and typically flows up Eastern side of tornado alley. Will be in effect from 02-23-10 through 03-22-10, and should produce the first big surge of severe tornado production, from about March 20th 2010, until about March 26 or later as the Next polar air mass cycle is coming out of western Canada, and should make for steep temperature gradients, and ion content differences.

Richard Holle

[DentonGal]

Good info Aerology and interesting website. It was actually the deep solar minimum we've been experiencing that lead me to research how that minimum affects our weather. Time will tell what history we're making with all of it.

[Texas Snowman]

Be nice to celebrate the Winter Olympic Games with some...real winter!

Here's hoping for some winter fun and games in February.

For what it's worth, I remember several big snow events in February (who could forget Valentine's Day in N. Texas a few years ago?) and several really big sleet events here in the Red River Valley back in the 1980s. Like 2-4" of sleet...that takes a while to melt.

[HockeyTx82]

Nice snow pack going on. Strange how there is a hole in the middle of the country.

http://espcgis.nesdis.noaa.gov/website/ ... viewer.htm