Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

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gofrogs2
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#5081 Postby gofrogs2 » Mon Feb 01, 2010 11:31 pm

Whats going on with the new model runs.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5082 Postby iorange55 » Mon Feb 01, 2010 11:32 pm

New GFS is running and its certainly looking interesting early next week, but I'll let you all go look for yourselves. I wouldn't want to be helpful :P
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5083 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 01, 2010 11:32 pm

I think some of you might enjoy tonights GFS run for early next week. And its starting to look quite similar to the Japanese model run from today. Hmmmm!
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#5084 Postby gofrogs2 » Mon Feb 01, 2010 11:38 pm

Whats it saying.
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#5085 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Feb 01, 2010 11:40 pm

00z GFS 174 hour snow cover map...

Image

Everything in green is 1" or more, and everything in yellow is 6" or more.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Mon Feb 01, 2010 11:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5086 Postby iorange55 » Mon Feb 01, 2010 11:43 pm

Looks about 1-3 inches around the Dallas area, and even snow further down by Austin about. Still a long ways out, but with Larry on board, and the models continuing to get colder it's setting up pretty well.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5087 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 01, 2010 11:43 pm

Hey Portastorm - can you post that map through Tuesday morning?
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5088 Postby wxman22 » Mon Feb 01, 2010 11:44 pm

Looks very interesting to say the least

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

But would like to see a few more model runs/and other models before I start to buy into it...
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#5089 Postby gofrogs2 » Mon Feb 01, 2010 11:48 pm

Looks to me aobut four sti six inches the the fort wroth and dallas area.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5090 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 01, 2010 11:50 pm

It looks like the key for next weeks storm is going to be where and how much of the PV breaks off and heads south. That appears to all depend on how the east coast storm for this weekend plays out. If it cuts up the east coast enough, it will send pieces of energy down the backside of the eastern trough and down into the southern plains. And with it will be a pretty decent chunk of arctic air.
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#5091 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 02, 2010 12:31 am

If and again IF (though i'm liking the chances) it happens, the trends so far this season has been more precip as we get closer. Of course that is getting into the realms of details which we likely won't know until a few days prior.
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#5092 Postby DentonGal » Tue Feb 02, 2010 5:50 am

Accuweather shows snow for DFW forecast for Monday and Monday night 2/8, and again for Thursday night 2/11. Somethings going on.....
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5093 Postby BrokenGlass » Tue Feb 02, 2010 6:54 am

Fort Worth AFD has us watching for bears:

713
fxus64 kfwd 021130 aaa
afdfwd

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
530 am CST Tuesday Feb 2 2010

Aviation...
concerns...IFR/MVFR ceilings & visible today.

Boundary layer moisture is still trapped below a strong inversion
around 2500 feet and is producing MVFR ceilings across the metroplex
and IFR ceilings over kact. The ceilings will lift slowly later today and
should erode this evening as drier air works in from southeast
Oklahoma. Lots of cirrus will be present overnight as our next midweek
storm system advances to the West Coast. A weak surface trough
moved south of I-20 overnight and will result in north to
northeast winds of 5 to 10 knots across the region through early
Wednesday morning.

75

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 410 am CST Tuesday Feb 2 2010/
with low level moisture remaining trapped underneath the
inversion...mostly cloudy skies will prevail today. Temperatures
should modify slightly...but have continued the trend of
undercutting model forecast high temperatures for today. An upper
level trough will move into Baja California California tonight and lift
northeast across the plains Thursday night and Friday. We will be
in southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the main trough...which will
allow a series of upper level disturbances aloft to move across
the region. We will see a chance of rain return to the southwestern
third late tonight...and rain chances will increase Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Expect widespread rain late Wednesday through
Thursday evening. Rain should be ending from west to east late
Thursday night and Friday morning. Instabilities do not look
terribly high...so have not mentioned thunderstorms. Rainfall
totals from this event will average between 1/2 and 1 inch...with
some 1.5 to 2 inch amounts likely. With saturated soils from last
week/S rain...runoff from Wednesday and thursdays rain will result
in some river flooding. This is being addressed in the hazardous
weather outlook.

We will have a short respite from the rain Friday afternoon
through Saturday night...before the next trough approaches. The
GFS is much much colder than the European model (ecmwf) for this system. Have done
a model blend for temperatures and associated precipitation types
for Sunday night through Tuesday. If the colder GFS verifies...most
of North Texas will see some snow starting Monday across the
northwest and spreading southeast Monday night and Tuesday.

58

&&
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5094 Postby Portastorm » Tue Feb 02, 2010 7:15 am

orangeblood wrote:Hey Portastorm - can you post that map through Tuesday morning?


Sorry for the delay ... here you go ... it's the 0z GFS for next Tuesday morning ... snow depth:

Image
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5095 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Feb 02, 2010 7:40 am

Oklahoma City NWS AFD also issues a "Bear Watch" for early next week:

GFS HAS STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA SUN NIGHT INTO MON... WHICH BRINGS COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS
SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SUN. WHEREAS THE ECMWF HOLDS
THIS AIRMASS TO OUR NORTH UNTIL LATER ON MONDAY. GFS ALSO HAS
STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT PRODUCES SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
PRECIP OVER THE AREA AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH. WILL BEGIN TO
TREND COLDER BY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND INTRO SOME
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES AS WELL. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY AS GFS
WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER BOUT OF WINTER WEATHER FOR THE AREA.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5096 Postby iorange55 » Tue Feb 02, 2010 8:09 am

Groundhog says six more weeks of winter, lol.
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#5097 Postby DentonGal » Tue Feb 02, 2010 8:31 am

:uarrow: Works for me :cold:
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Mom to 8 really is enough!

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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5098 Postby vincent vega » Tue Feb 02, 2010 8:37 am

im new here, but what does all this mean for houston? im assuming that the snowfall wont get here but how cold can we expect it to get? thanks.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5099 Postby wxman57 » Tue Feb 02, 2010 8:43 am

I've been keeping a close eye on that system now forecast for the 8th-9th. I say "now forecast" for that time period because the GFS over the past week has been all over the place with how it has handled the system. Sometimes it forecast it to move through the 10th-11th, then the 12th or 13th, now the 8th-9th. With such high run-to-run variance, I'd put as much faith in the 00Z GFS run as with an LBAR track for a storm in the Caribbean.

The 06Z run, for example, moves the significant snow to northern Oklahoma with only a trace of snow in Texas along the Red River. No reason to give up your hope of snow in NE TX. The fact that there is so much model variance is actually a reason for at least some hope of snow. But without solid run-to-run consistency we can't confidently forecast snow this far out.

Oh, and if you're in Houston, like me, forget it. Absolutely nothing in any model run suggests we'll see anything but cold rain with the 2-3 west Gulf lows that form over the next few weeks. It takes a lot colder air to bring snow to the Gulf Coast.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5100 Postby msstateguy83 » Tue Feb 02, 2010 8:45 am

next week looks like possibly another major winter storm for 'parts of the region' i think up my way
near w.falls up into oklahoma & the panhandle regions we could see quite a bit of snow as we head into
monday, tuesday of next week. HOWEVER if you take a look @ the latest 06z gfs plot out of dfw it shows
temps right there at or above frzing. I hate to say it but i think its going to be another close one for you
guys/gals in the metroplex but time will tell. I would STRONGLY disagree with anyone at this point
who is calling for a 'major' winter storm in the dfw metroplex next week i honestly just see all the major
players being northwest of there.

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