Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looks like much less moisture in this 06z run in the GFS. Basically its telling us it doesn't have a handle on what is going to happen. Going to have to wait and see what happens

[CaptinCrunch]

Wont jump on the snow bandwagon till I see what models look like this weekend, however I do feel good about the chances being there. SJS is locked and loaded with upper lows we just need that damn cold air to be in place across the DFW area for something to happen. Just remember that temps will be close so lets hope for the white stuff and not the FRZ rain stuff, as that is my biggest concern at this time for next week.

[Portastorm]

I've been keeping a close eye on that system now forecast for the 8th-9th. I say "now forecast" for that time period because the GFS over the past week has been all over the place with how it has handled the system. Sometimes it forecast it to move through the 10th-11th, then the 12th or 13th, now the 8th-9th. With such high run-to-run variance, I'd put as much faith in the 00Z GFS run as with an LBAR track for a storm in the Caribbean.

The 06Z run, for example, moves the significant snow to northern Oklahoma with only a trace of snow in Texas along the Red River. No reason to give up your hope of snow in NE TX. The fact that there is so much model variance is actually a reason for at least some hope of snow. But without solid run-to-run consistency we can't confidently forecast snow this far out.

Oh, and if you're in Houston, like me, forget it. Absolutely nothing in any model run suggests we'll see anything but cold rain with the 2-3 west Gulf lows that form over the next few weeks. It takes a lot colder air to bring snow to the Gulf Coast.

As much as it pains me, I have to agree with wxman57 here.

The Euro and the Canadian do not show the snow event for North Texas that the 0z GooFuS does. Granted, the Canadian does show something later next week ... but not on the 0z run timeframe. Like others have said .. we need to see some more consistency.

[Weatherdude20]

At least 2 new stations up here are on board.

[jasons2k]

Accuweather shows snow for DFW forecast for Monday and Monday night 2/8, and again for Thursday night 2/11. Somethings going on.....

It's just raw model output reformatted into a "forecast".

I wouldn't put any weight into it. Especially this far out.

[orangeblood]

I've been keeping a close eye on that system now forecast for the 8th-9th. I say "now forecast" for that time period because the GFS over the past week has been all over the place with how it has handled the system. Sometimes it forecast it to move through the 10th-11th, then the 12th or 13th, now the 8th-9th. With such high run-to-run variance, I'd put as much faith in the 00Z GFS run as with an LBAR track for a storm in the Caribbean.

The 06Z run, for example, moves the significant snow to northern Oklahoma with only a trace of snow in Texas along the Red River. No reason to give up your hope of snow in NE TX. The fact that there is so much model variance is actually a reason for at least some hope of snow. But without solid run-to-run consistency we can't confidently forecast snow this far out.

Oh, and if you're in Houston, like me, forget it. Absolutely nothing in any model run suggests we'll see anything but cold rain with the 2-3 west Gulf lows that form over the next few weeks. It takes a lot colder air to bring snow to the Gulf Coast.

As much as it pains me, I have to agree with wxman57 here.

The Euro and the Canadian do not show the snow event for North Texas that the 0z GooFuS does. Granted, the Canadian does show something later next week ... but not on the 0z run timeframe. Like others have said .. we need to see some more consistency.

Hey Portastrom - it appears to me that the 0Z Canadian shows a big winter storm developing in Texas Monday night and then moving along the frontal boundary to the eastern US. After the storm moves through, it encases 2/3 of the US into a deep freeze. So that's the GFS, Canadian, Japanese model all coming around on a storm next week with the EC now starting to show a similar solution. That's 3/4 of the long range model suites showing some type of winter storm next week - there appears to be a trend developing. Agree?

[msstateguy83]

orange how 'big' are we talking?? i have not had a chance to look @ the 0Z Canadian yet.

edit: for my part i see it ALL coming together in some areas i just didnt like the read out of dfw area temps
on the 06z gfs showing them to be border line and at any point when it would be winter precip
it showed the precip amts very light. i know gfs just one model, 06z just one run so we need
to look at the bigger picture as a whole, see what future runs give us.

[Portastorm]

I've been keeping a close eye on that system now forecast for the 8th-9th. I say "now forecast" for that time period because the GFS over the past week has been all over the place with how it has handled the system. Sometimes it forecast it to move through the 10th-11th, then the 12th or 13th, now the 8th-9th. With such high run-to-run variance, I'd put as much faith in the 00Z GFS run as with an LBAR track for a storm in the Caribbean.

The 06Z run, for example, moves the significant snow to northern Oklahoma with only a trace of snow in Texas along the Red River. No reason to give up your hope of snow in NE TX. The fact that there is so much model variance is actually a reason for at least some hope of snow. But without solid run-to-run consistency we can't confidently forecast snow this far out.

Oh, and if you're in Houston, like me, forget it. Absolutely nothing in any model run suggests we'll see anything but cold rain with the 2-3 west Gulf lows that form over the next few weeks. It takes a lot colder air to bring snow to the Gulf Coast.

As much as it pains me, I have to agree with wxman57 here.

The Euro and the Canadian do not show the snow event for North Texas that the 0z GooFuS does. Granted, the Canadian does show something later next week ... but not on the 0z run timeframe. Like others have said .. we need to see some more consistency.

Hey Portastrom - it appears to me that the 0Z Canadian shows a big winter storm developing in Texas Monday night and then moving along the frontal boundary to the eastern US. After the storm moves through, it encases 2/3 of the US into a deep freeze. So that's the GFS, Canadian, Japanese model all coming around on a storm next week with the EC now starting to show a similar solution. That's 3/4 of the long range model suites showing some type of winter storm next week - there appears to be a trend developing. Agree?

Not quite ... but I see what you're saying. It looks to me like the 0z Canadian shows the event about 24-30 hours later than the 0z GFS. Also, the Canadian dumps some good amounts on the Panhandle but I don't see it as extensive with the snowfall across North Texas as the 0z GFS is.

[orangeblood]

orange how 'big' are we talking?? i have not had a chance to look @ the 0Z Canadian yet.

edit: for my part i see it ALL coming together in some areas i just didnt like the read out of dfw area temps
on the 06z gfs showing them to be border line and at any point when it would be winter precip
it showed the precip amts very light. i know gfs just one model, 06z just one run so we need
to look at the bigger picture as a whole, see what future runs give us.

The Canadian shows what probably would be considered the biggest winter storm of the season, as far as wide ranging impacts. It shows a 1040 Canadian High moving into North Dakota on Sunday, which strengthens to a 1053 High by Wednesday over Montana. As the front moves down into Texas, it develops a Western Gulf low that moves northeast through the mid south up into Western Pennsylvania. By the time it gets to Maine, that low strengthens to 974 MB. This is a situation that needs to be very closely monitored.

[srainhoutx]

An FYI regarding the 12Z run...

NCEP Operational Status Message
Tue Feb 2 15:15:26 2010 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 021515
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1507Z TUE FEB 02 2010
12Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION IS ON TIME...
26 DROPSONDES AND 4 FLIGHT LEVEL REPORTS WERE AVAILABLE FOR
12Z GFS INGEST IN SUPPORT OF THE WSR PROJECT
$$
SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP

http://weather.noaa.gov/tgstatus/

[Portastorm]

Very good to know srainhoutx ... thanks!

Meanwhile, through 156 hours, the 12z GFS looks a bit warmer than the 0z run and shows primarily a Panhandle snow event for next week. As usual, by the time the cold air gets to most of us, the precip will be gone.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_156l.gif

[orangeblood]

Very good to know srainhoutx ... thanks!

Meanwhile, through 156 hours, the 12z GFS looks a bit warmer than the 0z run and shows primarily a Panhandle snow event for next week. As usual, by the time the cold air gets to most of us, the precip will be gone.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_156l.gif

I saw that and something doesn't look right with what the GFS is doing with the upper level energy in the desert southwest. The location of this storm and magnitude, if there is one, will largely depend on the location of the Canadian HP. If it moves directly down into the central US into Texas, then precip will be shut down by the time the air gets cold enough for winter precip. But if it gets a little farther west and hugs the eastern slope of the rocky mountains, then we're in business.

[Portastorm]

Then, of course, the 12z GFS spins up a gi-normous Texas snowstorm at the 240-hour mark! Be still my beating heart.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_240l.gif

[KatDaddy]

FWIW Joe B is mentioning the potential of snow and ice deep into the heart of Texas next Wednesday and Thursday. Time will tell.

[gboudx]

FWIW Joe B is mentioning the potential of snow and ice deep into the heart of Texas next Wednesday and Thursday. Time will tell.

Free vid, or pro subscription?

[msstateguy83]

i think the 12z gfs took a early lunch today as far as iam concerned lol just basically total rubbish from that run, i think the snow on the monday event MIGHT NOT make dallas proper but it will be further e then just mostly the panhandle, i also dont believe the warmer temps but we will see... VERY interesting though that we have alot of the other models coming into agreement so has already been stated this needs to be watched VERY,VERY closely in the coming days...

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Ntxw]

Still a week away from that storm, we have our hands full with this week's rain storm/east coast snowstorm. Once we've past that I think we'll have a better picture. GFS will likely change it's tone a few times before then.

[KatDaddy]

Pro subscription however after adding my Wii to Internet and going to http://www.yahoo.com I had a link to Joe B videos!

Here are the links:
http://weather.yahoo.com/vidindex/index ... lrWpkHQ_kA

[Ntxw]

12z EC sure is interesting the last few frames. Though can't tell how much\where precip is with the free data.

[wxman57]

I guess it all depends on which GFS run you want to believe as to what you think will happen next week. As I mentioned, I'm seeing tremendous variability from run to run, making forecasting next week's weather a challenge. I did plot a 12Z GFS meteogram for the DFW area (below). Cold rain, that's it. It's not my forecast (yet), I'm just the messenger for what the latest GFS run says: