Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Ntxw]

What are your personal thoughts looking at the pattern for that time frame wxman? I feel a little better with you having an open window.

[txagwxman]

Arctic cold possible early next week for Texas (aka ECMWF). May see mid 20s again Dallas.
Don't think there will be much precip yet with it.

[wxman57]

Talking to my coworker (long-range expert), he thinks the energy coming into the SW U.S. early next week (storm the GFS sees around 240hrs) is the one to watch for snow down south. He thinks the GFS is under-forecasting the amount of energy in the southern stream. Could get interesting.

Meanwhile, we can keep pulling the handle on the GFS slot machine to see if all 3 columns line up on more than one run.

[srainhoutx]

I agree guys. The ECMWF is looking real interesting in the longer range.

[txagwxman]

Talking to my coworker (long-range expert), he thinks the energy coming into the SW U.S. early next week (storm the GFS sees around 240hrs) is the one to watch for snow down south. He thinks the GFS is under-forecasting the amount of energy in the southern stream. Could get interesting.

Meanwhile, we can keep pulling the handle on the GFS slot machine to see if all 3 columns line up on more than one run.

That would be the right time, cold arctic air will be in place...may get some overrunning precip, but still too far out for me. At least the ECMWF is colder in Texas next week.

[gofrogs2]

With all fothe focus in the medium range the gfs is slowly tremding colder with this weeksstorm.

[HockeyTx82]

DFW FOX 4 is seeing something next week. This morning on the news he said to watch out for next week as things could be cold and some snow possible. His forecast reflects that.

http://www.myfoxdfw.com/subindex/weather

Fairly bold this far out to be putting up something like that on the TV right? Guess it gets viewers to tune in more?

[gofrogs2]

What are the other models saying.

[Ntxw]

We're all just going to have to be patient. As of right now the set up is somewhat in our favor but there's just no way to tell this far out when, where, or what could happen. I'm ready for one last push of winter hoping it will go out as I hoped to remember that this winter was one that made up for the missed winters in the past decade, and bring on spring. It's overachieved so far as least in my books.

[orangeblood]

The Japanese model is still on board with the winter storm across the southern plains next week. Normally I wouldn't reference this model but it appered to be the model that picked up on the features forming next week before any of the others. There isn't as much data available for this model as is the others but it appears rain will rapidly change to snow across Texas and Oklahoma starting Monday evening. 850 MB temperatures fall to around 10 degrees C starting Tuesday morning.

This model looks very similar to the Canadian as well as last nights 00Z GFS run. Just thought I would bring it to everyone's attention.

[Ntxw]

The Japanese model is still on board with the winter storm across the southern plains next week. Normally I wouldn't reference this model but it appered to be the model that picked up on the features forming next week before any of the others. There isn't as much data available for this model as is the others but it appears rain will rapidly change to snow across Texas and Oklahoma starting Monday evening. 850 MB temperatures fall to around 10 degrees C starting Tuesday morning.

This model looks very similar to the Canadian as well as last nights 00Z GFS run. Just thought I would bring it to everyone's attention.

It's been pretty consistent that a cold air mass will be arriving next week. I think the real question is how quickly it comes in and how much precip if any will be available after the frontal passage. If it is the case of overrunning (courtesy of the active southern jet) then there is a pretty good chance at a winter storm for a large part of Texas and Oklahoma. Also mid-week and later is another target as a more robust system as many have mentioned sets it's eye on the south. I agree the Japanese model and such has it's issue with data, but a good forecaster uses ALL of the tools available to paint a clearer picture.

[serenata09]

I noticed that the low for thursday night has been lowered by 4 degrees from 39 to 35 for DFW. Any chance of that precip turning to anything frozen late Thursday night?

[Portastorm]

I noticed that the low for thursday night has been lowered by 4 degrees from 39 to 35 for DFW. Any chance of that precip turning to anything frozen late Thursday night?

Highly unlikely.

[Ntxw]

Maybe north and west closer to Wichita Falls, definitely in the panhandle.

[srainhoutx]

Keep an 'eye' on Feb 12th +/- a day...

[msstateguy83]

srainhoutx-totally agree with your comment something "BIG" possible plus or minus a few days from there over texas into oklahoma.. just stay tuned folks

[msstateguy83]

other then some heavy rains there should be no problems with any sorta winter
precip at all in north tx through at least saturday. now late sunday into monday could be a different story

[TeamPlayersBlue]

lol @ the latest from the gfs

[Ntxw]

Well here is my interpretation from tonight's GFS. Monday\Tues of next week we shift into a colder air mass with snow flying across the Texas panhandle into Oklahoma where there could be some accumulation. As for Texas (the northern half possibly to parts of central Texas) precip will likely come to an end and maybe flurries as the cold air arrives.

Then later in the week the cold air mass is still in place. This looks like the perfect setup for a state-wide winter weather event. South\southeast Texas has a chance for snow\sleet with overrunning moisture from the SJT and warms up a bit later on with pacific air working in as the storm moves onshore and crosses Texas. Then the central and northern half will have to deal with some sort of significant winter storm as the upper low passes. Whew...

Should that play out, I think we'll have some happy campers here.

Edit: To note it shows a High building as it's coming south and landing 1040mb right in the heart of the state which to me looks prolific...

Edit 2: The cold then looks to stay with waves to energy coming from the SJT. Wild ride...viva El Nino!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

yeah ill be happy, just looking or some consistency. Still cant show consistency with this storm between -10 to -7. Cold air looks to be here though. That is the main thing. More often then not, the moisture always comes through