Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Wow, its predicting another cold shot 2 weeks out, of course thats very far out, but the models are showing a winter storm in N Tx

[Ntxw]

All system seems to be good to go with tonight's Canadian and ECMWF from what I can tell. Cold air poised to dive south with moisture next week.

[vbhoutex]

Well here is my interpretation from tonight's GFS. Monday\Tues of next week we shift into a colder air mass with snow flying across the Texas panhandle into Oklahoma where there could be some accumulation. As for Texas (the northern half possibly to parts of central Texas) precip will likely come to an end and maybe flurries as the cold air arrives.

Then later in the week the cold air mass is still in place. This looks like the perfect setup for a state-wide winter weather event. South\southeast Texas has a chance for snow\sleet with overrunning moisture from the SJT and warms up a bit later on with pacific air working in as the storm moves onshore and crosses Texas. Then the central and northern half will have to deal with some sort of significant winter storm as the upper low passes. Whew...

Should that play out, I think we'll have some happy campers here.

Edit: To note it shows a High building as it's coming south and landing 1040mb right in the heart of the state which to me looks prolific...

Edit 2: The cold then looks to stay with waves to energy coming from the SJT. Wild ride...viva El Nino!

If the 0z gfs from 180hr -240 hr was only a few days away I would be starting to get VERY EXCITED for all of TX. Once again though we must wait till we get out of la-la land to really get excited about the major winter storm that is being shown for almost all of the state. My guess at this point is that what we see now on the models will be somewhat different in days to come but should resemble somewhat what is being depicted tonight.Timing, timing, timing we always have to worry about the timing!

[Ntxw]

I agree with you completely. I guess the one optimism (for people who like winter weather) is that all of the models have slowly aligned with each other in shifting to the pattern change. Of course the details such as snow that far out is never dependable. But if you're looking for the right pattern, it doesn't get much better

[Portastorm]

Normally I would agree with you guys as well, but here's why I think we can have increased confidence in the GooFuS depiction for next week:

1) Consistency -- the GFS for several runs now has shown a major winter storm for next week

2) Agreement -- the Euro, Canadian, and orangeblood's JMA models all show similar scenarios for next week

3) Signals -- we've known for some time that a cold air dump would happen with an active Southern jet based on the Arctic Oscillation going strongly negative, the PNA showing positive, and the SOI showing a continuing, active Nino pattern.

4) Phil -- Hey, the groundhog saw his shadow so that means six more weeks of winter!

[Ntxw]

Give me consistent runs for today's 12z and 0z and I'm confident north Texas as well as other parts of Texas will see snow at some point the next few weeks.. (fairly confident now as matter of fact).The question then would be which one of these systems has the potential to be the big ticket item if any.

[attallaman]

Wow, its predicting another cold shot 2 weeks out, of course thats very far out, but the models are showing a winter storm in N Tx

What about SE TX or SW LA? If no winter storm will impact the SE TX/SW LA region will arctic air return to this region like what was experienced several weeks ago when lows got down into the teens?

[Portastorm]

Wow, its predicting another cold shot 2 weeks out, of course thats very far out, but the models are showing a winter storm in N Tx

What about SE TX or SW LA? If no winter storm will impact the SE TX/SW LA region will arctic air return to this region like what was experienced several weeks ago when lows got down into the teens?

I have seen some climate researchers/pro mets speculate that such an event (Gulf Coast freeze) is possible in the last half of February.

[wxman22]

Wow, its predicting another cold shot 2 weeks out, of course thats very far out, but the models are showing a winter storm in N Tx

What about SE TX or SW LA? If no winter storm will impact the SE TX/SW LA region will arctic air return to this region like what was experienced several weeks ago when lows got down into the teens?

No were not expecting any air THAT cold anytime soon if at all for the rest of the season its rare for air that cold to make it to the gulf coast but for air that cold to make it to the coast 2 times in a season,well you get the picture....(not impossible of course)But anyway you don't need air that cold to get wintry precip so its basically too far out to know if there's any chance of wintry precip in the south.And I really wont feel confident about anything until there's some consistency with the models.

[txagwxman]

:uarrow:

Normally I would agree with you guys as well, but here's why I think we can have increased confidence in the GooFuS depiction for next week:

1) Consistency -- the GFS for several runs now has shown a major winter storm for next week

2) Agreement -- the Euro, Canadian, and orangeblood's JMA models all show similar scenarios for next week

3) Signals -- we've known for some time that a cold air dump would happen with an active Southern jet based on the Arctic Oscillation going strongly negative, the PNA showing positive, and the SOI showing a continuing, active Nino pattern.

4) Phil -- Hey, the groundhog saw his shadow so that means six more weeks of winter!

There are huge differences between the ECMWF/6z GFS operational for next Tuesday across TX. 6z GFS keeps the cold air plugged into SE TX and creates a winter storm for Central TX, ECMWF is much further north with the main jet axis and keeps it a rain event. UKMET is closer to the GFS.

[attallaman]

Wow, its predicting another cold shot 2 weeks out, of course thats very far out, but the models are showing a winter storm in N Tx

What about SE TX or SW LA? If no winter storm will impact the SE TX/SW LA region will arctic air return to this region like what was experienced several weeks ago when lows got down into the teens?

No were not expecting any air THAT cold anytime soon if at all for the rest of the season its rare for air that cold to make it to the gulf coast but for air that cold to make it to the coast 2 times in a season,well you get the picture....(not impossible of course)But anyway you don't need air that cold to get wintry precip so its basically too far out to know if there's any chance of wintry precip in the south.And I really wont feel confident about anything until there's some consistency with the models.

More cold weather I can handle but not when it gets so cold that I have to worry about my pipes and let my outside faucets drip for several nights like I did last month.

[orangeblood]

Frustrating runs by the models last night. They seem to be going in different directions. The EC shows the SJT dominating the pattern across the southern states keeping the cold air to the north while the GFS shows cold air plunging directly into Texas. The GFS over the past few days has been the most consistent model so we shall see. I guess we'll just have to wait and see what the trusty ol' Japanese model has in store for us today, right portastorm?

[PTrackerLA]

In Joe Bastardi's morning update he basically says Texas will see their coldest stretch of the winter starting Sunday and lasting through the end of the month possibly. Also mentions chances of snow all the way to the I-10 corridor in Florida during this time. Looks like winter for the gulf coast is far from over!

[KatDaddy]

PTrackerLA beat me to the punch line

Joe B has posted "TEXAS BEWARE". The next 15-25 day period will be the coldest of the Winter with an active subtropical jet that will bring several snow threats down to the I-10 corridor. Texas will get a hammering according to Joe. We shall see.

[wgdade]

It does appear there will be some very cold air moving into Texas Sunday Night. If the 06Z GFS is right, an historic snow could develop across the eastern half of the state. Not sure about the 6Z output but I do feel there is a pretty good chance of sleet and freezing rain late next week, thurs/fri time frame. I miss the snow so I do hope the 6Z run pans out but I will not hold my breath. More information http://gdadeblog.blogspot.com/2010/02/o ... -back.html

[Portastorm]

Frustrating runs by the models last night. They seem to be going in different directions. The EC shows the SJT dominating the pattern across the southern states keeping the cold air to the north while the GFS shows cold air plunging directly into Texas. The GFS over the past few days has been the most consistent model so we shall see. I guess we'll just have to wait and see what the trusty ol' Japanese model has in store for us today, right portastorm?

The Euro is further north with upper-level energy at 144-168 hrs than the GFS and that is one reason why its holding up the cold air, I think. However, after that low passes ... the cold air comes down.

I still stand by my earlier post today in that comparing all of the 0z runs ... they all show a cold air dump at some point next week and they all show an active STJ. Are they all in sync? No ... but the general trends are the same.

[srainhoutx]

While everyone is waiting of the GFS to start. Did anyone noticed what the NAM spit out regarding snow in the TX/OK Panhandle Regions...stepping down folks...

[cperez1594]

Ok I was checking at MSN Weather and I know this is still way ahead but I live in the Lower Rio Grande Valley this is what they are showing.

Wednesday
Feb 10
Snow

Hi:53°Lo:35°
Snow. High 53F and low 35F. Winds N at 21 mph. Air Quality:NA, UV Index:NA
80%

[Weatherdude20]

Friday
Feb 12 Snow
Hi: 44° Lo: 20°
Snow. High 44F and low 20F. Winds E at 4 mph. Air Quality: NA, UV Index: NA

Lol, next friday MSN.... Fort Worth

[Portastorm]

Oh ... how I love this run of the GFS!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/model_l.shtml

The trend continues folks. Next week is going to be a lively one in the Lone Star State!!