Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL WITH
THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL...AND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH NORTH TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN LIKELY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME...THE PRECIP LOOKS
TO SHUT OFF BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES AND WILL STILL ONLY
MENTION PRECIP IN THE LIQUID FORM IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

NEXT WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER CHILLY ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE A STRONG SURFACE HIGH DROPPING
OUT OF CANADA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AND STAYING IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE MID TO LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT
STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE HIGH AND THUS HAS COLDER TEMPERATURES.
WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

LOOKING JUST PAST THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A POTENTIAL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT FROM RUN TO
RUN IN THE MODELS...BUT WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...THINGS COULD
GET INTERESTING LATE NEXT WEEK.

[BrokenGlass]

Yay, more bear watching!

[Ntxw]

0z GFS is still painting some sort of significant winter storm next week for a lot of Texas. Trend is still going...

[Portastorm]

0z GFS is still painting some sort of significant winter storm next week for a lot of Texas. Trend is still going...

Yeppers ... lots of nice wintry fun for Texas in this run!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/index_pcp_l_loop.shtml

[Ntxw]

Fort Worth is usually slow to jump into these type of things this far out, but it seems they too are mentioning it fairly strongly for something being a week away.

NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF SOUTHERN STREAM...EAST
PACIFIC UPPER TROUGHS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE. WE WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH ON SUNDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND RAIN SPREADS INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF SOUTHERN ROCKY CYCLOGENESIS. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS EARLY MONDAY WITH FROPA DURING THE DAY
AND COLDER AIR SPREADING OVER THE CWA. SOME OF THIS AIR WILL
ORIGINATE IN CENTRAL CANADA (MANITOBA AREA) WHERE TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BELOW. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE
COLD AIR WILL STAY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST...THE LEAD
EDGE OF IT WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA ON TUESDAY WITH 1000-850
THICKNESSES FALLING BELOW 1290. THE COLD AIR WILL HANG AROUND INTO
THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH NUMBER TWO MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND PRECIPITATION SPREADS BACK OVER TEXAS. WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AS LAST NIGHTS GFS HAS SOUNDING PROFILES
THAT FAVOR SNOW AND SLEET THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

Meanwhile (though 18z and 6z aren't that reliable to a certain degree but due to recent consistently is mentioned) 06z continues the trend (actually you can say it has almost a raging blizzard in the northern half of Texas)

[Portastorm]

Look at this snow depth map as of next Friday at 6 p.m. Crazy isn't it? Or is it?!

[Ntxw]

Look at this snow depth map as of next Friday at 6 p.m. Crazy isn't it? Or is it?!

Aside from the crazy snow amounts depicted, it looks like an ice\sleet storm is going on in parts of south\southeast Texas. I am amazed at the run to run consistency on this storm lol.

[Portastorm]

Yeah Ntxw ... there is no denying that the GFS has been very consistent now for several days about a major winter storm impacting a large swath of Texas in about a week's time.

The Canadian this morning in its 0z run shows a similar scenario. I'm a little troubled that the trusty Euro though isn't totally on board today. We shall see.

[Ntxw]

Yeah Ntxw ... there is no denying that the GFS has been very consistent now for several days about a major winter storm impacting a large swath of Texas in about a week's time.

The Canadian this morning in its 0z run shows a similar scenario. I'm a little troubled that the trusty Euro though isn't totally on board today. We shall see.

I wouldn't be too bugged about it, lately the EC hasn't picked up on things too well until the closer range. It too though has the set up that gives us a good chance. Perhaps the updated euro needs some time to tweak is recently new tools?

[wxman22]

, it looks like an ice\sleet storm is going on in parts of south\southeast Texas

Yep that's what im thinking right now too snow in central/west central and north Texas and ice in Southeast Texas.

[sphelps8681]

What is the time frame for this and what is the potential amount of ice if this all works like the models say?


BTW - I live North of I-10 close to Beaumont.

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff Lindner:

Intense meso low moving up the coast this morning with very strong surface winds.

ASOS sites at Pearland and Ellington have been gusting to over 45mph this morning in the small area from Pearland to Baytown and then ESE over Galveston Bay within a region a sharp pressure gradient.

Models have handled this event fairly poorly even with their decent run to run consistency...fact is the surface low is still somewhere over deep S TX and not over the upper TX coast and is much weaker than forecast. Rainfall totals have been more towards the lower end of the forecasted amounts...generally in the .5 to 1.0 inch range. Ground truth gages show 1.0-2.0 inches over S Harris County where 88D is showing between 1-2 inches. Feel the areas of 1 inch on the radar are likely closer to 2 inches especially near the coast and out over our western counties.

Main area of rain is shifting eastward this morning...although radars to the west still show more development...so not ready to clear out all rain chances just yet with 150kt jet nearby and the upper trough still to our west. Passing showers will be possible into tonight and may become more concentrated at times with passing disturbances rotating around the large upper trough over NM.

Tides have remained in fairly good shape overnight with a weaker and still far SW surprised surface low the winds have not increased into gale force over the NW Gulf which has helped to keep tides in the 1-2 foot range. Strong winds over Galveston Bay the past few hours have pushed tides to around 2.0 feet on the west side of the Bay and 1.8-2.0 feet at Clear Lake which is well below any critical thresholds.

Hard pressed to get very excited about clearing Friday or Saturday as GFS traps moisture below 850mb inversion...similar to last weekend. Short term models are showing more clearing and if we can mix enough we may be able to break out on Saturday...hopefully we will as the active storm track over the state looks to bring some nasty stuff next week.

Extended:

Next storm will move into the state on Monday with clouds increasing Sunday and rain starting Monday and continuing into Tuesday. Cold arctic air mass will be unleashed by this system and pour into TX starting Tuesday. Feel all rainfall will end prior to colder air reaching the area...hence all liquid.

Bigger developing trend appears to be highly active southern stream to bring at least 3 more systems over the state post Mon-Tues with cold arctic air in place. Could see multiple winter storm threats middle next week into next weekend with snow/sleet/ice across large parts of the state...this is still 5-7 days away so much can change.

Active weather looks to continue for the next 14 days with storm systems lined up well into the Pacific. Will see chances for rain about every 2-3 days with slim chances of sun between systems. Clouds and rain will continue to keep temperatures below normal for the next 2 weeks with highs next week after Tuesday only in the mid 40's...and possibly colder. Cold and wet winter of 09-10 continues on....

[Portastorm]

OK, if the 12z GFS shows the same deal for next week, I'm calling Lucy and setting up a time to kick the football. Just for the record.

[southerngale]

No need to call. I'm always sitting here Portastorm, just waiting for you to say the word. hehehe


And from just glancing at the model images above, it looks like SE TX misses out on the snow fun... *sigh*

[msstateguy83]

porta iam starting to think this is the real deal, i guess we will see what the 12z says but no one can deny the model runs have been pretty consistent on this system for mid to late part of next week. in my opinion could be a record breaker for some with some very very significant snow totals.....

[BrokenGlass]

I can't even remember the last time Dallas had a good 4-6 inch snowstorm that lasted more than 24 hours. I can only remember 1-2 inch dusters in the last dozen or so years.

[bktkck]

OK, if the 12z GFS shows the same deal for next week, I'm calling Lucy and setting up a time to kick the football. Just for the record.

Please make sure you set up a video camera because that old footage earlier in this thread is exactly that, old.

[Portastorm]

porta iam starting to think this is the real deal, i guess we will see what the 12z says but no one can deny the model runs have been pretty consistent on this system for mid to late part of next week. in my opinion could be a record breaker for some with some very very significant snow totals.....

I'm almost there msstateguy83 ... like I said, if the 12z GFS shows the same deal ... I'm jumping on board and will be as bold as you were with the Christmas Eve blizzard!

And bktkck ... I will make sure I shoot video of me kicking that football out of Lucy's hands!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah it looks consistent for a Dallas snowstorm now. Looking at maybe more than 10"? Wow. Still early though for us SE peeps. Although, it seems like one region always misses out on the fun :/

[HURAKAN]

Impressive system