Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

- CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8731
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
I'm not going to dig through the thread but last week I posted about a ice/snow event for NTX around the 11-13th time period. I think I said that mid last week, either way next week wont be the last big shot at wintery precip for TX. Looking at another chance around the 17-19th time frame as well, and yes even onto early March, winter not over by a long shot for TX.
0 likes
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
GFS 12z already looks warmer I'm not getting excited just a few days ago we thought maybe Monday, but it turns out Monday won't be anything special.
Seems like this winter has had a lot teases.
Seems like this winter has had a lot teases.
0 likes
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9914
- Age: 63
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: Round Rock, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Argh!!! Wouldn't you know it? Wouldn't you just know it!
The dang GooFus 12z run ... much warmer for Texas through 156 hours.
The natural question in my mind is: messed-up run or is it latching onto a change which will negate our wintry fun next week?

The dang GooFus 12z run ... much warmer for Texas through 156 hours.
The natural question in my mind is: messed-up run or is it latching onto a change which will negate our wintry fun next week?
0 likes
- CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8731
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Portastorm wrote:Argh!!! Wouldn't you know it? Wouldn't you just know it!![]()
The dang GooFus 12z run ... much warmer for Texas through 156 hours.
It's just 1 run so far, still many runs till next weeks event, I woulden't lean either way on this right now.

0 likes
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 223
- Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2003 5:18 am
- Location: Midlothian, TX
Re:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Yeah it looks consistent for a Dallas snowstorm now. Looking at maybe more than 10"? Wow. Still early though for us SE peeps. Although, it seems like one region always misses out on the fun :/
If I saw 10 inches of snow on the ground here in the DFW area, it would definitely be a first.
I remember 7 inches on Valentines day a few years ago in Southwest Arlington/Kennedale when I lived there.
0 likes
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9914
- Age: 63
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: Round Rock, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
My mid-morning depression has been abated somewhat by Wxman57's post on the "local forum" in that his long-range colleague says the 12z GFS is probably worth disregarding due to how its handling larger features.
The 12z Canadian is still advertising the event for next week ... at least through 144 hours ... as it dumps colder air into the state and has the southwest low working its way to Texas.
Living and dying on every GFS run is no way to go through life!
The 12z Canadian is still advertising the event for next week ... at least through 144 hours ... as it dumps colder air into the state and has the southwest low working its way to Texas.
Living and dying on every GFS run is no way to go through life!

Last edited by Portastorm on Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
I noticed it did look a little weird after mid next week, so I wouldn't trust it. Still though I'm not excited about next week I'm too tired of getting excited :[
lol it's tiring.
lol it's tiring.
0 likes
I hope the previous runs does come into fruition though, that would be a nice prolonged system of snow for north Texas and fun for everyone else too. A little bit of what everyone ordered
. Or Portastorm, it could be the usual hiccup of the GFS losing\changing the event heading into the medium range =o!

0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9914
- Age: 63
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: Round Rock, TX
- Contact:
Re:
msstateguy83 wrote:porta i have been real busy this am how much snow is the canadian showing up my way for next week??
If you're talking about the 12z CMC ... I dunno. Free access only goes through 144 hours (Wednesday morning) on the Penn State E-wall site. No precip at the end of the run but the cold air is in place.
0 likes
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9914
- Age: 63
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: Round Rock, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Well, the 12z Euro is coming out now and I'm already seeing enough through 120 hours that suggests the 12z GFS should be thrown in the trash can. The Euro blasts cold air down into the Southern Plains and Texas by midday Tuesday of next week. So the model agreement between the Euro, the Canadian, and the previous two days of GFS runs says "Game On!" for next week.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html
0 likes
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Portastorm wrote:Well, the 12z Euro is coming out now and I'm already seeing enough through 120 hours that suggests the 12z GFS should be thrown in the trash can. The Euro blasts cold air down into the Southern Plains and Texas by midday Tuesday of next week. So the model agreement between the Euro, the Canadian, and the previous two days of GFS runs says "Game On!" for next week.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html
Get your kicking shoes ready Portastorm!
0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Looks like the storm up north next week is trying to shove some of the colder air east.
0 likes
There goes that for today, EC wants to pull out the cold air faster (though I think it already did last run? Hard to tell with free data). The disturbance in the southwest doesn't look as strong as previous runs.
0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9914
- Age: 63
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: Round Rock, TX
- Contact:
Re:
Ntxw wrote:There goes that for today, EC wants to pull out the cold air faster.
Yeah Ntxw, I saw that too. Up until 120 hours it looks great ... and then off it goes with the colder air. I think I'm at the point with next week where I'll leave the model interpretation up to the pros like Wxman57, txagwxman, or wall_cloud!

I'm really at a loss now.
0 likes
- jasons2k
- Storm2k Executive
- Posts: 8245
- Age: 51
- Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
- Location: The Woodlands, TX
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Seems like a repeat of what we had last weekend where initially, it looked pretty cold on the models...but the coldest air went off to the east.
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 3714
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
- Location: Fort Worth, TX
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2540
- Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
- Location: Ponder, TX
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
So just like that it's all over?
0 likes
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22984
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
I think it's pretty clear that the GFS remains clueless about the pattern beyond about 4-5 days. That's where it significantly diverges from the Euro. In fact, at 168 hours, the 500mb pattern of the GFS is almost the exact opposite of the European. We'll have to wait 3-4 more days to gain some confidence about the pattern late next week.
0 likes
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9914
- Age: 63
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: Round Rock, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
HockeyTx82 wrote:So just like that it's all over?
Over? Did you say "over"?
Nothing's over until Wxman57 says it is!

0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests