Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Ntxw]

Given it's 18z GFS, Portastorm's dream storm is back!

Doesn't that just figure?!

I know. I'm watching the run just like y'all are. Trying to temper my enthusiasm and remember the wise words of Wxman57.

Though im not sure it looks cold enough in the later frames. But that's going into details.

[txagwxman]

Prepare...

Cold coming next week ---> I guarantee it.

[sphelps8681]

Where is the models ya'll are looking at. Any snow east of Houston N. of I-10?

Thanks

[txagwxman]

Where is the models ya'll are looking at. Any snow east of Houston N. of I-10?

Thanks

18z GFS, ECMWF, and I just LOVE the pattern.

[Ntxw]

Where is the models ya'll are looking at. Any snow east of Houston N. of I-10?

Thanks

As Txagwxman said it'll get cold. Don't worry about snow or ice yet. Questionable even way further north of you atm.

[wxman22]

18z looks nice

[mrgolf]

TXAGWXMAN,this is kevin from around memphis,tn.Just wanted to say hi and let you know we did fairly well with last week's storm.More ice and sleet than snow around memphis,but it was nice to see a winterevent.I wanted to ask you in all seriousness,when do you see another potential southern winterevent with this pattern thats shaping up? I talked to a friend that works in dodgecity ks.He is a met up there.He said the pattern is conducive for wintry chances in the extended with the active subtropical jet and cold airmasses from canada.He said its very difficult to time the disturbances this far out.He said that i shouldnt give up on winter just yet.

[txagwxman]

TXAGWXMAN,this is kevin from around memphis,tn.Just wanted to say hi and let you know we did fairly well with last week's storm.More ice and sleet than snow around memphis,but it was nice to see a winterevent.I wanted to ask you in all seriousness,when do you see another potential southern winterevent with this pattern thats shaping up? I talked to a friend that works in dodgecity ks.He is a met up there.He said the pattern is conducive for wintry chances in the extended with the active subtropical jet and cold airmasses from canada.He said its very difficult to time the disturbances this far out.He said that i shouldnt give up on winter just yet.

The Tue system looks like a rain-maker, may switch to snow in Memphis last hour or so...the 2nd system looks too far south for Memphis---but it is too early yet to be specific.

All I know it is going to get cold.

[mrgolf]

TXAGWXMAN,with this nextweeks storm,is there still a chance for memphis to get in on the action with the low maybe tracking further south for a quicker changeover or staying as wintrywx in later model runs?Im not sure where the low is forecasted to track.The ensembles look alot better than the op for our area. I just would like to see one more winter event before winter is over if we are supposed to be in this favorable pattern.

[wall_cloud]

we got another 5.2 inches of snow in the past 24 hours. FYI.

[mrgolf]

Wallcloud,in regards to next weeks storm,where is the low forecasted to track?I heard it develops around your location,but after that,im not sure.Im kinda rooting for a further south track than wherever its forecasted next week so maybe we can see a little snow and or ice. Im kinda rooting for either the storm to either slow down a hair or coldfront speed up.

[orangeblood]

Accuweather seems to think that it's going to be a very close call for North Texas on Sunday night into Monday for winter precip.

[Ntxw]

Accuweather seems to think that it's going to be a very close call for North Texas on Sunday night into Monday for winter precip.

To me (based on the latest GFS) for the north Texas it looks to be dependent on how robust the low is given the track is right along the red river valley and everyone north gets good lifting. The stronger it is the better the chance we get more wrap around precip after frontal passage but at the current time even that is very light. Still holding out for a miracle

[BrokenGlass]

NTXW, is the recent snowpack to our north going to be a factor for the Sun-Mon storm?

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: NTXW, is the recent snowpack to our north going to be a factor for the Sun-Mon storm?

Probably not, I don't think the question is it going to be cold enough cause once the front passes through temps will fall pretty rapidly. Big question is will there be moisture available when the drier\colder air moves through or will it scour the atmosphere dry.

[mrgolf]

NTW,where is the low forecasted to track,i mean the surface low?I cant find a source that tells me anything. I imagine it will be a close call for us around memphis also.

[Ntxw]

NTW,where is the low forecasted to track,i mean the surface low?I cant find a source that tells me anything. I imagine it will be a close call for us around memphis also.

Other than following them on the models (can be difficult sometimes) the HPC has a map that tracks lows through the ensembles. Though it only show major systems with winter effects 1-3 days out so the Mon\Tues graph won't update until sometime Saturday probably.

Here is the link to HPC

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml#lows

The last map labeled Forecast Surface Low Positions is what you're looking for.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm kind of on the fence with this possible cold air getting into the deep south. It wasn't but a couple weeks ago that the models were indicating the cold air returning by Feb 1 and it seems to me that the forecasts for it keep back peddling. Call me Deano Downer for now!

[vbhoutex]

For someone that is supposed to be able to read models pretty well and is supposed to understand weather in general pretty well I feel almost stupid asking this question, but I am going to.
WTH is going on with the models when it comes to SE TX? What I am seeing shows me there is plenty of cold air coming down and going deep into S TX, but it appears to keep SE TX on the edge of the really cold air, at least when there is moisture around. As strong as this cold air seems to be and as far West as it appears to be I would think we would be getting the same motherlode of cold air here in SE TX. I know how the models waffle, etc., but this is something I have noticed for several runs. Am I missing something or are the models just not handling a complex situation very well?

Deano downer!! Deano downer!! Sorry I couldn't resist Dean.

[Ntxw]

I feel your pain. That's life here in north Texas during the winter. We are almost always on the the edge between snow and rain. Things just has to be perfect (even more so in S\E Texas). It's true that the models, particularly the GFS isn't handling the pattern next week too well because the southern stream energy somehow always gives it problems. Personally what I figure the model is saying atm is that this sytem would push warmer air from the pacific in, warming up the air so snow would probably change to ice\sleet for your neck of the woods if it were to happen as depicted. Just my two cents