Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[vbhoutex]

Thanks for the reply. The ice/sleet looks to be the most likely here IF we get wintry precip. As cold as this push of arctic air may be it doesn't look like it is going to be as cold as before and due to the time of year will probably be shallower too, which plays more to icy events here. At a minimum I think next week will be an interesting one for all of Texas.

[wxman22]

For someone that is supposed to be able to read models pretty well and is supposed to understand weather in general pretty well I feel almost stupid asking this question, but I am going to.
WTH is going on with the models when it comes to SE TX? What I am seeing shows me there is plenty of cold air coming down and going deep into S TX, but it appears to keep SE TX on the edge of the really cold air, at least when there is moisture around. As strong as this cold air seems to be and as far West as it appears to be I would think we would be getting the same motherlode of cold air here in SE TX. I know how the models waffle, etc., but this is something I have noticed for several runs. Am I missing something or are the models just not handling a complex situation very well?

Deano downer!! Deano downer!! Sorry I couldn't resist Dean.

Ok well the 18z GFS shows southeast Texas getting a mix of precipitation from ,sleet,rain,freezing rain and even some snow basically it looks a bit icy.Of course its just way too early and Im just posting what the 18z depicts.Its too early to know for sure how all of this plays out if anything,we should know more by Superbowl Sunday

As you can see the 18z 2m temps are hovering around the freezing mark at IAH with plenty of precip from hour 177-204

[southerngale]

we got another 5.2 inches of snow in the past 24 hours. FYI.

I'm jealous. And the worst part... you don't even want it!

[Ntxw]

Tonight's 0z is good on Portastorm's Dream storm.

[iorange55]

You beat me to it I was just about to post it! Woo

[Ntxw]

You beat me to it I was just about to post it! Woo

From what I can tell it's going to be a prolonged event in waves based on what I see. Also it's pretty rare to see an all snow event from the beginning to end and it looks quite possible north Texas could be snow through the entire thing.

Edit: Also we are entering within the 168hr or less time frame so the resolution is getting better.

[iorange55]

You beat me to it I was just about to post it! Woo

From what I can tell it's going to be a prolonged event in waves based on what I see. Also it's pretty rare to see an all snow event from the beginning to end and it looks quite possible north Texas could be snow through the entire thing.

I still don't want to get excited cause right when I do that's when it goes away. We'll see though within 6 days it's closing in on the time where any huge changes happen.

[Ntxw]

Well for the rest of Texas (east of Austin to the Houston metro) there is a layer of warmer air based on the skew im looking at so the cold air is more shallow. Freezing rain or sleet could be the main precip there. Based on this run.

[iorange55]

Well for the rest of Texas (Austin eastward to the Houston metro) there is a layer of warmer air based on the skew im looking at so the cold air is more shallow. Freezing rain or sleet could be the main precip there. Based on this run.

I'm sure portastorm would take about anything right now.

[Ntxw]

Well for the rest of Texas (Austin eastward to the Houston metro) there is a layer of warmer air based on the skew im looking at so the cold air is more shallow. Freezing rain or sleet could be the main precip there. Based on this run.

I'm sure portastorm would take about anything right now.

Well a little crazy but it also says Portastorm could get half a foot of snow if he stays cold enough or at least just north and northwest of him. Details details!

Also I was watching Frank Strait's video tonight on the upcoming weather pattern he seems to think the winter precip axis could be shifting from I-40 to the along the I-20 corridor in the coming weeks.

[iorange55]

Well for the rest of Texas (Austin eastward to the Houston metro) there is a layer of warmer air based on the skew im looking at so the cold air is more shallow. Freezing rain or sleet could be the main precip there. Based on this run.

I'm sure portastorm would take about anything right now.

Well a little crazy but it also says Portastorm could get half a foot of snow if he stays cold enough or at least just north and northwest of him. Details details!

Also I was watching Frank Strait's video tonight on the upcoming weather pattern he seems to think the winter precip axis could be shifting from I-40 to the along the I-20 corridor in the coming weeks.

I love Frank Strait although sometimes he has tendencies to overlook the Texas area, and just focus on the southeast.

[serenata09]

What are the winter precip. chances for the San Antonio area? If this snow event materializes, I will be 0/3 with being in DFW during snow events.

[Ntxw]

What are the winter precip. chances for the San Antonio area? Is this snow event materializes, I will be 0/3 with being in DFW during snow events.

It's too far out to say if SA will get winter precip or not. 0z gfs has them straddling right along the frozen mark up and down the column. Swing a few degrees either way and you could go from rain to snow to ice, any of the above or all of the above. Details IF this does verify.

[orangeblood]

Tonight's GFS run is about the best you'll find when is comes to winter precip. chances for North Texas over the next two weeks. Wow!!

[orangeblood]

Also, it was very similar to last nights 00Z run. There's seems to always be something a little off with a lot of 12z GFS runs lately. It appears to have some sort of warm bias to it. Can anyone verify this or is it just me?

[Ntxw]

Also, it was very similar to last nights 00Z run. There's seems to always be something a little off with a lot of 12z GFS runs lately. It appears to have some sort of warm bias to it. Can anyone verify this or is it just me?

Wxman57 mentioned this that the updated GFS 12z is warm biased.

[somethingfunny]

Since all the Texans are posting in here I think it would be alright to repost this message from the National Weather Service:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY
TEXAS DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1051 PM CST THU FEB 4 2010

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE TEXAS
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

THIS IS A CHILD ABDUCTION ALERT ISSUED BY THE TEXAS AMBER ALERT
NETWORK.

THE HOUSTON POLICE DEPARTMENT IS SEARCHING FOR LUCAS NATHANIEL
COLE. A WHITE MALE, 2 YEARS OLD, AND UNKNOWN CLOTHING
DESCRIPTION.

POLICE ARE LOOKING FOR JAIME COLE. A HISPANIC MALE, 39 YEARS OLD,
DATE OF BIRTH MARCH, 5, 1970, 5 FOOT, 11 INCHES TALL, 204 LBS, IN
HIS ABDUCTION.

THE SUSPECT IS DRIVING A 2008 BLUE CHEVY PICKUP TRUCK WITH TX
LICENSE PLATE OF 59S-VLG WITH FRONT END DAMAGE. THE SUSPECT WAS
LAST HEARD FROM IN HOUSTON, TX.

LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS BELIEVE THIS CHILD TO BE IN GRAVE OR IMMEDIATE
DANGER.

[somethingfunny]

I hated the 18z GFS run. It actually brought all the moisture SOUTH of Dallas, leaving us out in the cold like the early December event earlier this winter.

[Ntxw]

I hated the 18z GFS run. It actually brought all the moisture SOUTH of Dallas, leaving us out in the cold like the early December event earlier this winter.

That's the finer 'details' can't be too worried about that this far out. It's good that there's a storm with cold air.

[Portastorm]

Some morning snippets from various AFDs from NWSFOs in Texas ... "low confidence" seems to be the catch phrase for next week:

FORT WORTH
-------------
AFTER WEDNESDAY...WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS THE
GFS REMAINS WET AND VIGOROUS WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY AND NOT AS
AMPLIFIED WITH OUR SECOND UPPER SYSTEM NEXT THU-FRI. FOR THIS
REASON...WE/VE COMPROMISED MAX/MIN TEMPS AND LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BECAUSE
IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...A WINTRY SITUATION COULD DEVELOP.

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO
----------------------
THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THESE MODEL
SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE STRENGTH AND SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS
TROUGH...AND HAVE SHOWN POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THE 00Z ECMWF
MOVES THE TROUGH NORTH OF OUR AREA...WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT RIGHT
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND PROVIDES ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN...POSSIBLY
EVEN SOME WINTER-TYPE PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...SO OUR
FORECAST WILL BE A DAMPENED VERSION OF THE GFS...WITH LOWER POPS
AND NO MENTION OF WINTER-TYPE PRECIP.

HOUSTON/GALVESTON
---------------------
LOW CONFIDENCE FCST BEYOND WED WITH VARYING MODEL SOLNS. GFS
DEPICTING A VERY ACTIVE & MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT OVERUNNING COLD AIR
AT THE SFC DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS
SHOWING A WAA SCENERIO WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
AND A LESS ACTIVE (DRY) UPPER FLOW. COOR WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
AND AGREED TO SPLIT THE TEMP DIFFERENCES AND THROW IN SOME LOWISH
POPS. HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE DAYS
TO COME THOUGH SINCE IF GFS ENDS UP BEING RIGHT WE`LL NEED TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTER WX LATE WED-FRI. AND FWIW -
GFS ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FAR
OUT.

MIDLAND/ODESSA
-----------------
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE HOW
LONG WILL THE COLD AIR REMAIN IN PLACE AND WILL THERE BE
PRECIPITATION AND IN WHAT FORM. WILL SIDE WITH THE COLDER AND MORE
MOIST GFS BOTH DAYS AS THE ECMWF APPEARS TO ERRONEOUSLY ERODE THE
COLD AIR MUCH TOO QUICKLY. WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ON BOTH MODELS AND
BACKING MID LEVEL FLOW BELIEVE MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD INCREASE
PER GFS. WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS THURSDAY.

SAN ANGELO
------------
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS BRING AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUES TO BUILD IN COLD AIR BEHIND
IT...INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...GFS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... AS IT
BRINGS AN UPPER LOW EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH STRONG LIFT AND
MOISTURE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF MODEL IS COMPLETELY
DRY...SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS GFS RUN. WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING
PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THAT AREA OF THE FORECAST. GFS DOES
HOWEVER TRY TO MAKE IT INTERESTING... GENERATING ABOUT 0.5 INCHES
OF LIQUID QFP IN ITS ALGORITHM...WHICH COULD TRANSLATE INTO 5
INCHES OF SNOW.