SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather:Stormy, then cold midweek

#4401 Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Dec 02, 2009 12:16 pm

srainhoutx wrote:Jason, we been having some interesting discussions in the Winter Weather thread. Even wxman57 has been posting "locally" as well as the TX Winter Weather thread. Looking at the trends, shades of 1973 sure look to be setting up. Jeff points out the active STJ. That played a big factor as well as shortwave energy in 73 for multiple snowfalls in Houston. 3 to be exact. :wink:


What is SJ?
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#4402 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Dec 02, 2009 12:21 pm

Sub Tropical Jet?
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather:Colder midweek,Snow Friday?

#4403 Postby KatDaddy » Fri Dec 04, 2009 9:30 am

Rain and snow mix in League City
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#4404 Postby jasons2k » Thu Dec 24, 2009 4:25 am

About to move through here:

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Shot at 2009-12-24
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather:Snow ended,freeze then milder

#4405 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Dec 24, 2009 5:05 am

Woke me up here at our house. Winds gusting to 50 mph or better with the nearest weatherbug site measuring 49 mph. Brief intense lightning, including some green and/or blue flashes which could have been transformers going. Heavy but not torrential rain. Temps went form 69ºf to 51ºf in less than 10 minutes. Relating this back to what has been discussed in the Winter thread a quick look at radar shows an intensifying and slow moving low in N Central TX. This may cuase some major changes in forecasts in many areas to adjust for temps and precipitation.
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#4406 Postby jasons2k » Thu Dec 24, 2009 9:41 am

I had about the same here. It was pretty intense for a few minutes, like a strong tropical storm. I did see a transformer flash very close by and our lights flickered off and on for about a second. I thought for sure we had lost power but it came right back up. But I could tell to the west if was much darker -- the section that lost power was very close to us. We probably had a few gusts in the 50-60mph range. Lots of yard debris too.
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#4407 Postby southerngale » Thu Dec 24, 2009 1:30 pm

So we're repeating posts in both forums.... mine pasted below as well. lol

I have a suggestion. Even when it's USA Weather forum type weather, it IS winter. So let's use the Winter forum for all of our weather during the winter. Rain, wind, etc. is all technically "winter weather" if it happens in the winter, right? Then we don't have to keep up with 2 forums and repeat ourselves.



I had a little flashlight in my pocket :P but fortunately, I didn't lose power either. It was pretty intense for a pretty short time here as well. It rained/stormed a lot off and on all night, in brief bursts, before the squall line arrived, which moved through fairly quickly. It was rather windy as well. During the squall ine, the wind was howling and I heard some racket in the backyard. It sounded like part of my patio roof blew off, but it was still there. lol I think it may have lifted it a little or something. I don't know. There are a few small items in the yard that had been on the patio, but it didn't sound like them blowing around. I haven't ventured outside yet today, but it sure is WET out there! Lots of standing water. Welcome to an El Nino winter, eh?



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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather:Snow ended,freeze then milder

#4408 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Dec 24, 2009 4:56 pm

Cloud cover has lowered again and the temp continues to drop here in Houston. Currently 46f at the house with the winds literally howling through the power lines with gusts up into the 40-50 mph range. It is not a comfortable day to be out even in Houston. If radar was not indicating that the system that is generating all of this weather in TX has already made the turn to the NE(appears that it made it early to me since it looks like the center is near OKC)I would not have been surprised to see some white things in the air around here this evening.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather:Snow ended,freeze then milder

#4409 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Feb 02, 2010 10:42 pm

This is not "winter weather" so I am posting it here. The latest from Jeff Lindner:
NWS has issued a Coastal Flood Watch for the following counties: Chambers, Galveston, and Brazoria.

Massive southern stream storm system clearly noted on satellite images heading for TX and the NW Gulf. Formation of storng low pressure over the lower TX coast Wednesday tracking NE up the coast into Thursday will result in strong...possibly gale force winds over our outer coastal waters by Wed PM.

Long easterly fetch and strong winds will build nearshore swells into the 8-12 foot range by Thursday. Extra-tropical storm surge models shows 1.5-2.5 feet of storm surge on top of 1 foot tides which places totals tidal rises in the 3.0-4.0 foot range or near/at our coastal flooding thersholds.

Flooding of portions of Bolivar, west Galveston Island, and SE Brazoria county including HWY 87, 2004, and 3004 are possible from Wed PM into Thursday PM. Around Matagorda Bay tides will run closer to 2.0-2.5 feet or below defined threat levels...although beaches ahead of the dune line may become flooded.

Other:

Heavy rainfall threat remains, especially along the coast. Feel widespread 1-3" holds well for this event with 4-5 inches around Matagorda Bay for 2-3 day totals. This will likely cause some problems for area creeks/rivers due to the widespread nature of the rains on already wet grounds.

Another slight change this evening may be the need to extend rainfall now into Friday as system continues to look slower on the guidance...such deep systems usually tend to track slower than guidance anyhow...and now guidance does not clear the rainfall until Friday morning...if not midday Friday.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather:Stormy and cool Wed, Thur, Fri

#4410 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Feb 04, 2010 3:03 am

Currently 46ºf with rain and winds 20-25 mph g 34. Yuck!! Been raining all evening.
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#4411 Postby southerngale » Thu Feb 04, 2010 9:54 am

Yeah, more rain than apparently expected. Flood warning for Pine Island Bayou. It's not expected to go much over flood stage, though. Good thing the rain is supposed to end today.
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#4412 Postby CajunMama » Thu Feb 04, 2010 9:32 pm

Just all evening frack? Been raining here yesterday and all day today.
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#4413 Postby southerngale » Thu Feb 04, 2010 10:03 pm

Did I say just all evening? Image Yeah, it's been raining here all day yesterday and today too. I thought it was supposed to end earlier today, but it kept hanging around, although much lighter tonight... was just sprinkling when I got home a little bit ago. It looks like a break on radar, but I thought that earlier this afternoon, and it didn't happen. Who knows? I just pray it's not raining in the morning... you know where I'll be.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather:Stormy and cool Wed, Thur, Fri

#4414 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Feb 05, 2010 12:19 am

Started raining again here in Houston just after it got dark. Hasn't stopped yet and looks like there is a steady supply to our West. Nothing impressive, just more rain!! :roll: :roll: Of course our boiling hot temps make it much more bearable - NOT!!! :cold:
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather:Stormy and cool Wed, Thur, Fri

#4415 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Feb 05, 2010 4:44 pm

I am pleased to announce that the sun or something that looks like it still exists in SE TX!!! :sun: :sun: :sun:
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather:Stormy and cool Wed, Thur, Fri

#4416 Postby jasons2k » Mon Feb 08, 2010 6:25 pm

Would not be surpised to see a severe thunderstorm warning for Montgomery County soon for hail on radar:

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#4417 Postby jasons2k » Mon Feb 08, 2010 6:37 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
534 PM CST MON FEB 8 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 600 PM CST

* AT 531 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR CUT AND SHOOT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SHEPHERD...NORTH CLEVELAND AND CLEVELAND.
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#4418 Postby jasons2k » Mon Feb 08, 2010 6:38 pm

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#4419 Postby jasons2k » Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:23 pm

Severe T-storm warning for Harris:

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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather:Stormy and cool Wed, Thur, Fri

#4420 Postby jasons2k » Thu Feb 18, 2010 9:53 am

Morning update from Jeff Lindner:

Cold but at least sunny weather of this week will be replaced by warmer and wetter weather over the weekend before more cold arrives early next week.

Discussion:

High level moisture is on the increase as old polar high moves eastward allowing the sub-tropical jet stream to spill into the region. Most areas have had a freeze the last 4 mornings. SE surface winds will return today allowing a very slow increase in moisture at the low levels into the weekend ahead of the next front penciled in for Sunday evening. A heavily suppressed short wave will move mainly south of the region Friday. Guidance does not produce much QPF with this system over the land areas of SE TX with most of the activity over the NW Gulf and beyond. Best chances for rain will be along the coast and offshore Friday.

This wave moves eastward Friday night with no air mass change. SE winds will increase over the weekend allowing at least upper 50 to near 60 degree dewpoints to arrive into the area for the first time in a while. Next storm system will approach on Sunday with a strong cold front. Area looks to get into the warm sector for a change on Sunday as Gulf opens up. Forecast soundings for IAH and VCT becoming increasingly unstable during the day as moisture increases and temperatures warm into the lower 70’s. Strong cold front will arrive into this air mass Sunday evening. Forecasted CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg does support some strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Will be watching this period fairly closely as cells may attempt to get going in the warm sector prior to the front and have a severe threat. With that said…the Gulf has been worked over hard this winter with several cold air intrusions, and the models may be overdoing the progged instability. Plenty of time to watch between now and Saturday evening.

Next forecast concern is how cold behind the Sunday front and if there will be any precipitation next week in the cold air. Models are in horrible disagreement with the upper air and surface features. Developing high latitude omega block off the W Canada coast would allow some bitter cold air the move southward….however the GFS breaking this pattern down quickly and transitions into a fast split zonal flow over the US which would support the cold air heading southward to get deflected eastward. The EURO model is more aggressive with a cold air plunge due south and much more amplified southern stream trough Tues/Wed next week with lots of cold air and precip over TX. GFS does have some support from the CMC and several of the ensemble members, but I am not sure it is handling the cold air well…as this model usually does not handle cold arctic domes well.

Given all the uncertainty, will go with a colder solution than the GFS with highs back into the 50’s on Monday and possibly the 40’s on Tues/Wed. Will bring a slight rain chance into the forecast starting Tuesday and keep P-type all liquid for now. If the models start trending toward the more stable EURO…then much colder for next week with highs in the 30’s and 40’s and we would have to entertain the idea of P-type issues Tues/Wed. Not really needing to be said…the forecast beyond Sunday is extremely low confidence.

Climo:

So how cold has this cold winter been? Per the NWS the average Dec 1-Feb 15 temp. for KIAH has been 49.1 degrees or the 7th coldest on record and currently the first 15 days of Feb are the 8th coldest on record. More astounding is the fact that Galveston is currently running an impressive 8.0 degrees below average for the month of Feb. By far this has been one of the coldest winters of the past decade and likely for many since the late 1980’s.

Spring Outlook:

The outlook for the March-May period for TX will continue to favor the wetter and colder pattern of this winter. El Nino indicators have shown a gradual cooling of the current ENSO in progress with conditions heading toward neutral by early summer. This corresponds well with above average rainfall and continued cooler conditions. One interesting aspect is all this cold air affects on the Gulf water temps. Temperatures are running above 2.0 degrees colder than last year at this time over the Gulf. With all the cold and stable air in place it has been hard to get severe weather going along the Gulf coast this winter. During such El Nino winter severe threats and tornadoes are fairly common along the US Gulf coast. The combination of poor moisture quality over the Gulf and a very suppressed sub-tropical jet has resulted in all the “action” being out over the central Gulf of Mexico. This activity in this very active pattern should begin to lift northward over the next month, but the colder than average water temperatures may help mitigate much of a severe weather season until the Gulf warms a bit and the cold air intrusions abate.
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