Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Ntxw]

Well the clouds are back in, talk about brief sunshine

[txagwxman]

12z colder with mix central TX/DFW on Thur.

[wxman57]

Here's a 12Z GFS meteogram for D-FW. Low 30s and precip next Thu/Fri. I'm still not trusting the GFS beyond 3-4 days, though. Too much inconsistency and non-agreement with other models. But here it is, anyway:

[Ntxw]

Well the Canadian shows energy around. Of course no way to know the details, but at least they have energy with cold air hanging somewhere. That's 2 models.

Edit: The storm effecting the southern plains on Monday is causing a lot of problems in California

[msstateguy83]

the 00z runs are gonna be critical tonight for seeing just how big this thing is gonna be on monday but this
could be huge for portions of oklahoma possibly as far south as the redriver area... we shall see

[serenata09]

Weather.com is advertising a 60% chance of snow showers for DFW on Monday night. Will this come to fruition or is this just another tease?

[Ntxw]

I don't understand the euro. At 144 hours it has energy coming down then somehow retrogresses it at 168? Really hard to follow the EC with such limited data.

[srainhoutx]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
205 PM EST SAT FEB 06 2010

VALID 12Z TUE FEB 09 2010 - 12Z SAT FEB 13 2010


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z/06 GEM GLOBAL AND 00Z/06 EC ENSEMBLE MEAN
TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH
7. THIS COMBINATION OF GUIDANCE WEIGHTS THE DEVELOPING EAST COAST
LOW MID PERIOD SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF
THIS WINTER. OVERALL...THE PATTERN IS LOCKED IN...WITH AN ONGOING
JET COMING INTO THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...AND
SPLIT...CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE EAST. A NEW WAVE LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE ORGANIZING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF OF MEXICO DAY
7...THE DETAILS OF WHICH WILL NEED TO BE SORTED OUT IN THE COMING
DAYS.


FINAL...

THE 12Z/06 GFS AND ECMWF TRENDED SHARPLY SOUTHWARD WITH THE LOW
OFF THE EAST COAST MID PERIOD...CLOSER TO THE BLEND CHOSEN FOR THE
UPDATE PACKAGE...SO MADE NO CHANGES FOR THE FINAL ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE LOW IN THE GULF DAY 7 LOOKS FLAT AND
DISORGANIZED AT THIS POINT...BUT THERE ARE MANY MODEL RUNS TO SORT
OUT THE DETAILS. NO END IN SIGHT FOR THE TENACIOUS PATTERN OVER
THE WEST EITHER.

CISCO

[mysterymachinebl]

Weather.com is advertising a 60% chance of snow showers for DFW on Monday night. Will this come to fruition or is this just another tease?

since it's weather.com, I wouldn't buy it.

a better place to check is weather.gov. I think the precipitation is supposed to end before it gets cold enough for snow or sleet.

[txagwxman]

Difference between the Euro/GFS Thur...
GFS snow/mix 30s DFW
ECMWF 50s. Euro will probably win out and we will bust.

Just my luck. Go enjoy the weather today.

[Ntxw]

Still sitting in the low to mid 40s, I was hoping for some sunshine today for maybe some outdoor activities. Thicker cloud deck has moved in and doesn't look like we'll make it back to 50 for awhile. I'm sun deprived sigh...

[serenata09]

I agree with you on that one. Seems like the snow events that we've had have been surprises to everyone so I'll hold out a little hope.

Weather.com is advertising a 60% chance of snow showers for DFW on Monday night. Will this come to fruition or is this just another tease?

since it's weather.com, I wouldn't buy it.

a better place to check is weather.gov. I think the precipitation is supposed to end before it gets cold enough for snow or sleet.

[Ntxw]

The NAM at 84 hrs has a powerful low just off the coast of California.

500mb Vort.

[msstateguy83]

after dust in the air settles so to speak and things clear up as far as with the models i think this coming week late tomorrow- next sunday will make for a VERY interesting week for the southern plains

[srainhoutx]

The NAM has done rather well in pattern recognition this season. Although the HPC stated it was an outlier, I tend to look there for some 'early signals'.

[msstateguy83]

i still dont see dallas-fortworth metroplex getting anything tomorrow or monday HOWEVER points nw... wichita falls, vernon & childress could be diffrent... i also see things turning VERY ugly by tomorrow night across a large portion of oklahoma...


edit: i would echo also what was said looks very impressive that system off the cali coast @ 84hrs out on the nam

[wxman57]

I don't understand the euro. At 144 hours it has energy coming down then somehow retrogresses it at 168? Really hard to follow the EC with such limited data.

You're losing the feature, that's another feature coming in from the west that appears over TX at 168. It's over NW Arizona on the 144hr panel.

Euro continues to be much weaker with the disturbance and much drier for Texas next Thu/Fri. I still don't buy the GFS's various solutions (different one every 6 hrs).

[wxman57]

Weather.com is advertising a 60% chance of snow showers for DFW on Monday night. Will this come to fruition or is this just another tease?

Weather.com's forecasts are derived from the GFS. Garbage in, garbage out (when the GFS is clueless).

[Ntxw]

18z gfs is drier and warmer. Could see good rains along the coast though.

[msstateguy83]

just remember everyone before we write anything off for monday further south we need to look @ the 00z runs