Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[srainhoutx]

I think we are just enjoying the sunshine today. I suspect that the activity will pick up a bit later...RE the 12Z GFS...

NCEP Operational Status Message
Sat Feb 6 15:15:43 2010 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 061515
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1512Z SAT FEB 06 2010
12Z MODEL CYCLE IS RUNNING SMOOTHLY AND IS ON TIME.
12Z GFS RAOB RECAP...
PASY/70414 - NO 12Z REPORT ISSUED.
ALSO
WSR RECON AIRCRAFT REPORTS...
USAFR WC-130...11 FLIGHT LEVEL/13 DROPSONDES IN THE GULF OF
AK REGION.
NOAA G-IV...17 DROPSONDE REPORTS IN THE WESTPAC REGION.
CWD IN EFFECT UNTIL 02/08/12Z.
$$
WOOLDRIDGE/SDM/NCO/NCEP

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: I think we are just enjoying the sunshine today. I suspect that the activity will pick up a bit later...RE the 12Z GFS...

NCEP Operational Status Message
Sat Feb 6 15:15:43 2010 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 061515
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1512Z SAT FEB 06 2010
12Z MODEL CYCLE IS RUNNING SMOOTHLY AND IS ON TIME.
12Z GFS RAOB RECAP...
PASY/70414 - NO 12Z REPORT ISSUED.
ALSO
WSR RECON AIRCRAFT REPORTS...
USAFR WC-130...11 FLIGHT LEVEL/13 DROPSONDES IN THE GULF OF
AK REGION.
NOAA G-IV...17 DROPSONDE REPORTS IN THE WESTPAC REGION.
CWD IN EFFECT UNTIL 02/08/12Z.
$$
WOOLDRIDGE/SDM/NCO/NCEP

What sunshine?! Lucky you guys south of I-20 got to experience it, Im jealous!

[Portastorm]

Bummer for you. We had blue skies, bright sunshine, and high temp around 60. Given the weeklong clouds and rain, it was kinda nice to see ol' sol again.

[Ntxw]

Latest update from Larry Cosgrove. Fun should just be starting

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston-Weather-Examiner~y2010m2d6-WEATHERAmerica-Newsletter-Saturday-February-6-2010-at-600-PM-CT

Hmm NAM is being a bit slow starting.

[srainhoutx]

NCEP Operational Status Message
Sun Feb 7 01:29:18 2010 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 070128
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
0125Z SUN FEB 07 2010
00Z MODEL CYCLE STARTED ON TIME...
00Z NAM RAOB RECAP...
MEX/76679 - UNAVB PART TTAA
KPP/78970 - 10159; NOT AVAILABLE
OAK/72493 - 10144; POWER FAILURE
MID/76644 - UNAVB PART TTAA
CWD IN EFFECT UNTIL 02/08/12Z.
$$
SHRUELL/SDM/NCO/NCEP

[Ntxw]

Ahh thanks Srainhoutx!

Nothing new or different with the NAM other than the low off California (one that possibly could effect Texas later in the week) looks even more robust.

[Ntxw]

FW has wintry precip in the forecast for DFW Thurs.

Thursday: A chance of rain, snow, and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

[srainhoutx]

Hmmm...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _096.shtml

[Ntxw]

I know we shouldn't go into details or anything, but the system is there and it seems to want to regroup itself in coastal Texas based on tonight's GFS. San Angelo nws has snow\rain in their forecast for Weds\Thurs especially along the big country (Abilene).

[srainhoutx]

I will call this the "Portastorm"...

[msstateguy83]

ah heck no lol dont send it this way we already had 1 blizzard to many

[Portastorm]

Hmmmm... the Portastorm ... I like that! I like that a lot!!

The GFS is our friend.

[southerngale]

Hmmmm... the Portastorm ... I like that! I like that a lot!!

The GFS is our friend.

Yeah, until it whacks us over the head with a 50 pound bag of reality.

[Ntxw]

Finally, the EURO tonight is onboard with at least winter precip for the red river valley on Weds-Friday time frame. A lot of the nws offices along the I-20 corrider in Texas to Louisiana have mentioned snow\sleet in their forecast. Also looks very vigorous along the Arklatex region in the upper flow.

Canadian looks similar to the EC. Pretty good consensus this run of the models, feeling optimistic.

[txagwxman]

GEM/ECMWF are still further north with the short-wave on Thur/Friday...latest 6z GFS is further south and would be a threat for snow/mix into central TX. Typically these troughs come out further south than expected as they have all winter so far. So leaning with the GFS for now...but still a ways out.

[Portastorm]

Snow and sleet are now officially in the forecast for AUS per our local NWSFO. Hmmm....

.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW OR SLEET. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

[srainhoutx]

I have to agree txagwxman. The trends yesterday from the GFS were far more reasonable than the ECMWF. I noticed the HPC has also changed its tune as well and are now calling the ECMWF an outlier. Stay tuned as they say, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

[txagwxman]

I have to agree txagwxman. The trends yesterday from the GFS were far more reasonable than the ECMWF. I noticed the HPC has also changed its tune as well and are now calling the ECMWF an outlier. Stay tuned as they say, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

NAM is also further south...see if that 12z ECMWF flips later today.

[Ntxw]

North or south, I just hope everyone in Texas gets something at some point out of it if any (for those who want it that is). For those keeping track of Tomorrow's system

[srainhoutx]

RE the 12Z runs...

NCEP Operational Status Message
Sun Feb 7 13:32:40 2010 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 071332
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1329Z SUN FEB 07 2010
12Z NCEP MODEL CYCLE STARTED ON TIME. NO 12Z MEXICAN REPORTS
WERE RECEIVED AS YET. DATA COVERAGE INCLUDED...14 AK/32
CANADIAN/71 CONUS AND 6 CARIBBEAN REPORTS IN TIME FOR THE
NAM START.
12Z NAM RAOB RECAP...
DRA/72387 - UNAVAILABLE ON WEEKENDS/HOLIDAYS
KCR/78384 - DELETED TEMPS 840-695MB...WET BULB EFFECT.
KPB/78954 - DELETED WINDS 176MB AND ABV...ERRATIC.
CWD IN EFFECT UNTIL 02/08/12Z.
$$
WOOLDRIDGE/SDM/NCO/NCEP