Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[cheezyWXguy]

12z ECMWF now deeper and 540 thickness is near ACT/CLL/AUS line Thu afternoon.

is there precip in the dfw area?

[Ntxw]

12z ECMWF now deeper and 540 thickness is near ACT/CLL/AUS line Thu afternoon.

is there precip in the dfw area?

I wouldn't put your hopes up for much as of right now. Maybe some light snow\sleet\rain. We'll have a better idea getting closer. What the NWS has up atm is a safe bet to stick by.

[Portastorm]

Hey ... thanks to the 12z GFS, here's a map that many of us could appreciate!

[wxman57]

I do notice that the 12Z EC is farther south with the disturbance, developing the low in the Gulf like the GFS. That means most moisture would be confined to the coastal counties of Texas.

[Ntxw]

I do notice that the 12Z EC is farther south with the disturbance, developing the low in the Gulf like the GFS. That means most moisture would be confined to the coastal counties of Texas.

Im just happy there's a storm. Where there is, there's always a chance. If I recall not too long ago there was no storm or rather the EC putting it up in the Midwest. It was more consistent, just not the right idea. By any means you're probably right with the coastal thing having waaaay more data than any of us

[srainhoutx]

12z ECMWF now deeper and 540 thickness is near ACT/CLL/AUS line Thu afternoon.

Going to get real interesting this week!

[Ntxw]

12z ECMWF now deeper and 540 thickness is near ACT/CLL/AUS line Thu afternoon.

Going to get real interesting this week!

May not just only be this week 8-14 days CPC

[srainhoutx]

12z ECMWF now deeper and 540 thickness is near ACT/CLL/AUS line Thu afternoon.

Going to get real interesting this week!

May not just only be this week 8-14 days CPC

What, no love for the 6-10 range...

[iorange55]

So should we discount the 12z GFS? Meaning I shouldn't get excited at the chance of 4-6 inches of snow?

[wxman57]

So should we discount the 12z GFS? Meaning I shouldn't get excited at the chance of 4-6 inches of snow?

I think there's a good chance it's overdoing the precip amounts that far inland.

[Ntxw]

What about 1-2?! I'll take it!

[iorange55]

What about 1-2?! I'll take it!

I'll be happy with two to three inches. As far as one goes, eh. I've seen one inch two or three times this winter, and I'm getting pretty jealous of Wichita Falls, and Oklahoma. With their 10-12 inches of snow.

[southerngale]

Hey ... thanks to the 12z GFS, here's a map that many of us could appreciate!

Hey, we like colors down here too. Hand me some crayons, please.

[vbhoutex]

Hey ... thanks to the 12z GFS, here's a map that many of us could appreciate!

Hey, we like colors down here too. Hand me some crayons, please.

Me too! I promise I'll stay inside the lines!!

[Ntxw]

What about 1-2?! I'll take it!

I'll be happy with two to three inches. As far as one goes, eh. I've seen one inch two or three times this winter, and I'm getting pretty jealous of Wichita Falls, and Oklahoma. With their 10-12 inches of snow.

Who said anything about inches?!

Joking aside, does that subtropical jet not have any role in this? Coming up from Mexico, the vast stream of energy and moisture.

[srainhoutx]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
211 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2010

VALID 12Z WED FEB 10 2010 - 12Z SUN FEB 14 2010


...ANOTHER WINTER STORM BREWING FOR PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST...


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED THE 00Z/07 GEM GLOBAL...DILUTED WITH ONE-THIRD 00Z/07 ECENS
MEAN...FOR DAY 3 ACROSS THE NATION...WITH AN EVEN BLEND OF THIS
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER THROUGH DAY 7. THE GEM GLOBAL AND UKMET ARE
THE FARTHEST SOUTH OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH THE EAST COAST
CYCLONE DAYS 3 AND 4...CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THIS WINTER.
THE BLOCK OVER EASTERN CANADA DOES LOOK AS IF IT WILL RELAX ENOUGH
TO ALLOW THE STORM TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE MOST RECENT
SYSTEM...WITH A GREATER THREAT TO NEW YORK CITY AND THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. STILL...THE COMMA HEAD PART OF THE CYCLONE
MAY PASS ACROSS SOME OF THE AREAS HARDEST HIT BY THIS PAST
WEEKENDS SNOWSTORM. ELSEWHERE...THE FLOW IS RATHER
SUPPRESSED...WITH CALIFORNIA THE MOST UNSETTLED REGION DUE TO THE
ONGOING PACIFIC JET DIVING INTO THE STATE. A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD...AND THERE IS PLENTY OF ROOM FOR THE LOW TO TRACK FARTHER
NORTH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS.


FINAL...

THE GFS TRENDED STRONGLY TOWARD THE LAST COUPLE GEM SOLUTIONS THIS
RUN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AND WITH THE SUPPORT OF THE
UKMET...COMMITTED MORE FIRMLY TO ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE FINAL PACKAGE...INCLUDING NEW
YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND DAYS 3 AND 4. THE ECMWF TRENDED
SOUTHWARD SINCE ITS 00Z/07 RUN...BUT STILL IS NOT CLUSTERED WITH
THE OTHER MODELS WITH A SOLUTION THAT FITS THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THIS
WINTER SEASON. A MAJOR CHANGE FOR THE FINAL PROGS WAS MADE ALONG
THE GULF COAST...WHERE THE GFS AND GEM GLOBAL CAME MARKEDLY NORTH
WITH THE WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION DAYS 5 AND 6. USED THE
TIMING OF THE GEM GLOBAL TO ADJUST THE FINAL MAPS...BUT TURNED THE
CYCLONE MORE SHARPLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST DAY 6 TO AT LEAST
TREND TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
MODELS TREND ALL THE WAY TO CAPE HATTERAS WHEN ALL IS SAID AND
ONE.

CISCO

[Ntxw]

Wow I think we're going to hear headlines on flooding\mudslides out of California later this week.

[msstateguy83]

yikes.. that could spell double trouble for the southern plains later into the week, next wkend to... very impressive
looking system iam just looking over the latest 18z nam data now...

[iorange55]

Temps look to be a really close call. If it's a cold rain again, I'll cry.

[Ntxw]

Temps look to be a really close call. If it's a cold rain again, I'll cry.

If it's going to snow, best bet for accumulating snow (based on 18z) would be along and north of I-20