Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Finally up at an exhausting day and night in New Orleans. All I have to say today about winter weather today is

WHO DAT SAY THEY CAN BEAT THEM SAINTS, NOBODY, NOBODY.

WHHHHHOOOOOOO DAAAAAAAAATTTTTTTTTT !!!!!!!!!!!

[RNGR]

take it to the sports forum

[Ivanhater]

Mobile/Pensacola AFD

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)COOL AGAIN THURSDAY AS HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MAY BE
SOME LIGHT RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT MORE LIKELY VIRGA AS THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY AND ANY RAIN WILL HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME NOT EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...AT LEAST
INITIALLY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF TAKE A SURFACE
LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF TO A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A
WINTRY MIX OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. IT WILL BE COLD AND MOIST ENOUGH IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE FOR AT LEAST SOME SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN
OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE MIXTURE
SPREADING SOUTH TO NEAR INTERSTATE 10 OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOVING BACK
TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY MOSTLY IN THE
40S. THIS EVENT IS STILL ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT SO WILL LIKELY BE CHANGES
IN THE FORECAST...BASED ON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF GULF LOW. CURRENT
FORECAST LOW FOR FRIDAY MORNING IS FOR ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE
SOUTHERN 2/3RDS WITH BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTH..SO THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET OR SNOW TO THE NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN IT IS
FORECAST TO BE FREEZING OR BELOW MOST ALL AREAS NORTH OF THE COAST
BUT PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED. COOL BUT DRY OVER THE WEEKEND.
/11

[timNms]

This is interesting. Let's see if it turns out like the last couple of times they mentioned snow...we got nothing but cold rain, then tiny flurries after the temp was below freezing .

003
FLUS44 KJAN 081638
HWOJAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1038 AM CST MON FEB 8 2010

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
091200-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
1038 AM CST MON FEB 8 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

DAY ONE
TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL AFFECT THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AND A WIND ADVISORY COULD BECOME NECESSARY
FOR THE LARGER LAKES. THESE WINDS WILL FOLLOW A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
QUICKLY FALLING TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO RESULT IN WIND CHILL
READINGS IN THE TEENS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...WITH WIND CHILL
READINGS IN THE 20S FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND GULF
LOW COMBINE TO BRING WINTRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. WHILE THE DETAILS
ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL IS NOT KNOWN...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR AND THAT SOME PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES. EVERYONE IS URGED TO
STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECAST AND OUTLOOKS CONCERNING THIS
POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW EVENT.

[attallaman]

:roll: take it to the sports forum

This must not be a "Who Dat" fan, take it to the sports forum. The Saints did good last night.

[Brent]

[RNGR]

:roll: take it to the sports forum

This must not be a "Who Dat" fan, take it to the sports forum. The Saints did good last night.

your right. im not a fan of "who dat" whatever the hell that is.

[Stormcenter]

Below is an excerpt from this afternoon's extended discussion from the HPC.

SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FLORIDA FRIDAY...
THE ECMWF SHOWS A TWO DAY TREND TOWARDS SLOWING THIS SYSTEM
DOWN...AND ITS 00Z SOLUTION LIES WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TREND...TOOK THE LOW ON
A SLOWER/MORE NORTHERLY PATH...WITHIN THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
00Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE LOW ENVELOPE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BE QUITE WET ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA...WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE SOUTH
OF ITS TRACK AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH. MEASURABLE SNOW IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY FROM TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH INTO SOUTH CAROLINA FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
1000-500 HPA THICKNESS VALUES WITH THE PREFERRED MODEL BLEND ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW 5400 METERS.

[Brent]

Peachtree City:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC SNOW THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY
THIS WEEK AS A AN AREA LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF AND SPREADS AMPLE MOISTURE OVER A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL JUST MENTION RAIN OR
SNOW FOR NOW FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GA AS CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT
IS NOT THAT HIGH. OTHERWISE...RECOMMEND ALL INTEREST IN NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA TO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECAST FOR CONTINUED FINE
TUNING OF THIS POTENTIAL WINTRY THREAT.

[Brent]

Someone keep me from fainting:

[Brent]

New forecast just out:

Friday...Colder. Snow likely. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of snow 70 percent.

[Ivanhater]

I am liking the track of this low and the placement of the cold air. I think parts of the gulfcoast mat get in on this one. There is some talk this low might bomb out in the gulf

[Stormcenter]

How far south are we talking about along the Gulf coast Ivanhater? Thanks in advance.

I am liking the track of this low and the placement of the cold air. I think parts of the gulfcoast mat get in on this one. There is some talk this low might bomb out in the gulf

[Ivanhater]

This is from the updated Mobile/Pensacola AFD Stormcenter. Could be an all snow event for the region. Close call like always.

LONG TERM...[THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...NO CHANGES, JUST COMMENTARY
ON THE 12Z OUTPUT. GFS SHOWS SOME MODERATION OF THE POSITIONS OF THE
5400 AND 1290 M THICKNESS ISOHYETS FOR 1000-500 AND 1000-850 MB
RESPECTIVELY. 12 Z GFS SHOWS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TRACK TREND FROM THE
06Z GFS BUT LONGER TERM TRENDS MUST BE ESTABLISHED. IT SHOULD ALSO BE
NOTED THE SNOWPACK LEFT OVER FROM THE SNOWFALL LAST WEEKEND MAY
PRESENT A SHIFT IN THE THICKNESS GRADIENT MAXIMUM SOMEWHAT SOUTHEAST.
THAT WOULD ALSO AFFECT THE PROSPECT OF A WINTRY MIX OR ALL SNOW EVENT
IN THIS REGION. COUNTERING FACTORS ARE INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND
ADIABATIC COMPRESSION AND WARMING IN THE LAGRANGIAN FRAME OF
REFERENCE. STAY TUNED.

[Brent]

[Stormcenter]

This is getting VERY interesting for the folks in the deep south.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
420 PM CST MON FEB 8 2010



LONG TERM...
THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS STILL IN
THE FORECAST FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE WITH COLD AND DRY AIR IN
PLACE INITIALLY. A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. HOW
FAR THE LOW TRACKS OFFSHORE WILL BE CRITICAL TO WHERE THE
RAIN/MIX/SNOW LINE SETS UP.

THERE IS ACTUALLY PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF
THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK ABOUT 80 TO
100 MILES OFFSHORE. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW ABOUT ONE INCH OF
LIQUID QPF OVER MOST OF THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SUB-ZERO
PROFILES AT MCCOMB THAT WOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW WHICH WOULD MEAN
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RATES/SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.
HEADING SOUTH TOWARDS BATON ROUGE TO THE NORTHSHORE...TEMPERATURE
PROFILES ARE MORE MARGINAL...BUT THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS LIKELY TO
BE IN THIS AREA...SO A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTH IN THE LOW TRACK COULD
PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW HERE AS WELL. AREAS FROM HOUMA TO NEW
ORLEANS TO THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OR CHANGEOVER AT SOME
POINT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD COME TO END FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PARADES.
THE BIG MARDI GRAS WEEKEND...SATURDAY THROUGH FAT TUESDAY LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND RATHER COOL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR
POSSIBLY ANOTHER GULF LOW.

[Brent]

Looky here, 3 days later, a week from today:

[Ivanhater]

This is snowfall amount.. Snow all the way to the coast, heavy line just north of the Florida/Alabama line....wow

[Ivanhater]

Almost the entire Panhandle and Gulfcoast having Snow and Ice

[RNGR]

Again I think that snow on the coast is very unlikely.

part of the Birmingham discussion:

THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS STRUGGLING WITH THE 500 MB
FORECAST...AND I SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A TREND TOWARDS A
SLOWER...STRONGER SYSTEM THAT TRACKS FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED BY THE 12Z GFS. THROUGH YEARS OF WATCHING THE GFS I HAVE
NOTED A BIAS TOWARDS FLATTER AND WEAKER SOLUTIONS IN THE MODEL.
THROUGH COORDINATION...HPC NOTED THAT MOST OF THE SYSTEMS THIS
WINTER HAVE TRENDED STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME. ALSO A
LOOK AT THE EXPERIENTIAL FIM MODEL SHOWS A MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH
WITH A SURFACE LOW FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS.

I believe the surface low will track right along or just south of the coast.