Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[wxman57]

Do you think DFW office may throw up a Winter Storm Watch on Wednesday? It looks like we might get snowprovided the moisture is as predicted by the models) that we could be within the winter storm criteria for the DFW area.

Looks like the snow will start Wednesday evening and be heaviest on Thursday. I'm confident a watch will be issued there, but it could come tomorrow night. Not sure how far in advance their SOPs say that winter weather watches are issued. I'd expect a warning to be issued for the DFW area by Wednesday late afternoon.

[Ntxw]

Here's what the HPC thinks which is pretty close to wxman's thoughts.



up to 8 inch chances.



Also of interest...chances at up to 12 inches.

[Texas Snowman]

Thanks to Brent for finding this:

This is from the CPC Hazard Assessment for Feb 11 & 12 -

http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/8679/cpcthreats.png[/url]

I think the center of the heavy snow area will be farther south in Texas, probably along I-20, not up near the Red River and across OK. Not enough moisture up there.

The word is that the DFW office is about to issue a special statement on upcoming winter weather.

He's raining on my snow parade again. Me thinks that if I ever meet Wxman57 personally...I'll...I'll...I'll let the air out of his bike tires!

Just kidding Wxman57!

No, I know that as of now the Red River Valley is destined for only light snow if that. But I'll keep my fingers crossed that the storm track/intensity for our region changes.

[Weatherdude20]

What are the odds that the 70% probabilty of 4+ inches of snow accumulation bullseye are right on top of Dallas and Tarrant counties only???? Lol nice

[wxman57]

Yeah, that area looks good. And it'll extend eastward right down I-20 across northern LA and north-central MS and AL beyond 72 hrs.

On another note, long-range Euro has a pattern that would bring down some even colder air in 8-10 days. Great...

[katheria]

What are the odds that the 70% probabilty of 4+ inches of snow accumulation bullseye are right on top of Dallas and Tarrant counties only???? Lol nice

hehe made my day brighter
humm better hit the store tonight, dont wanna get caught without Cigs LOL

[Texas Snowman]

Well, at least for now, the Red River Valley is within the HPC's moderate probability zone for 4" of snow....

[WacoWx]

What are the odds that the 70% probabilty of 4+ inches of snow accumulation bullseye are right on top of Dallas and Tarrant counties only???? Lol nice

I was thinking the exact same thing. Its almost like someone on this board made those graphics . I'm gonna begin praying daily that cold air arrives sooner than predicted. Today has been a GREAT day regarding this late week storm. I'm just hoping they are being conservative with their temps for Cent Texas

[wxman57]

He's raining on my snow parade again. Me thinks that if I ever meet Wxman57 personally...I'll...I'll...I'll let the air out of his bike tires!

Just kidding Wxman57!

No, I know that as of now the Red River Valley is destined for only light snow if that. But I'll keep my fingers crossed that the storm track/intensity for our region changes.

You need to identify your location in your profile, Texas Snowman. I 'm careful to mention the weather for those people who are active on the forum. I can't tell where you are, but I take it you're north of Dallas?

[HockeyTx82]

What are the odds that the 70% probabilty of 4+ inches of snow accumulation bullseye are right on top of Dallas and Tarrant counties only???? Lol nice

I just hope Denton gets in the fun........

[Weatherdude20]

Denton = 4-6". 4-6" = Fun

In my book... Lol

[wxman57]

What are the odds that the 70% probabilty of 4+ inches of snow accumulation bullseye are right on top of Dallas and Tarrant counties only???? Lol nice

I just hope Denton gets in the fun........

You will (it will?).

[bktkck]

I hope Tyler is where the action is!

[Texas Snowman]

He's raining on my snow parade again. Me thinks that if I ever meet Wxman57 personally...I'll...I'll...I'll let the air out of his bike tires!

Just kidding Wxman57!

No, I know that as of now the Red River Valley is destined for only light snow if that. But I'll keep my fingers crossed that the storm track/intensity for our region changes.

You need to identify your location in your profile, Texas Snowman. I 'm careful to mention the weather for those people who are active on the forum. I can't tell where you are, but I take it you're north of Dallas?

Wxman57, Grayson County, not far from Lake Texoma.

In all seriousness, I'm really used to this after living here for 30 years.

Sometimes the storms track north and bury Oklahoma City. Can anyone say 2009 Christmas Eve blizzard?

Other times they track south and slam DFW and other points south and east. Remember the plane that went down in the frozen Potomac River in that February blizzard that struck D.C. in the mid-80s? Well that storm struck Texas a day or two earlier...not even a flurry here in the Red River Valley...but in West, Texas near Waco, they measured nearly 10 inches of the white stuff if memory serves correct. I think even Tyler and Longview got in on the big snow fun in that one.

So I fully anticipate being left out of the fun again with this storm.

[Ntxw]

I think the Austin to Houston area should pay attention to this storm near the beginning of the system. The cold air in place could give some frozen precip before it's all a cold rain (sorry I wish I could change that, and of course sun and warmth for wxman =P). The northern tier counties of S\E Texas might have some slick spots at some point early.

[Texas Snowman]

What are the odds that the 70% probabilty of 4+ inches of snow accumulation bullseye are right on top of Dallas and Tarrant counties only???? Lol nice

I just hope Denton gets in the fun........

You will (it will?).

Hmmm...Sherman (just south of where I live) is about 35 miles NE of Denton. Come on storm, shift north just a little bit more!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well, at least for now, the Red River Valley is within the HPC's moderate probability zone for 4" of snow....

Yeah, and I think those in the Red River region up into the southern half of Oklahoma still need to watch this storm closely. The models so far have been looking pretty good for a light/moderate snow event up here. We might not get it as bad as the I-20 corridor, but 1-2+ inches still looks quite possible, if not likely IMO.

18z GFS snow map valid 12z Friday: http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png

1" line extends into southern 2/3rds of Oklahoma, and 3" line extends into southern 1/3rd of the state. The highest snow totals, around 4-6"+, are along the 1-20 corridor in Texas. The Red River region in particular ranges from 3-5".

**keep in mind that the graphic being produced is showing higher snow totals than the cobb output. The 18z GFS cobb output shows significantly less snowfall with 0" in Dallas and Fort Worth and 1" or less in most of Oklahoma.**

[mrgolf]

Wxman57,We got 5-7 inches this morning around memphis.We are raining currently.I have a few things to ask.First,do you think it will take the cold front to pass us and low go by us before we turn back over to snow?We have been osolating between rain and sleet all day. Second,do we have any chance to see anything with this next storm around my area? thanks kevin

[Texas Snowman]

Wxman57,We got 5-7 inches this morning around memphis.We are raining currently.I have a few things to ask.First,do you think it will take the cold front to pass us and low go by us before we turn back over to snow?We have been osolating between rain and sleet all day. Second,do we have any chance to see anything with this next storm around my area? thanks kevin

MrGolf...what part of Memphis do you live in? I was born there, grew up during my elementary years in the Bartlett area. Still have a few relatives there in the area.

BTW, that big snowstorm I alluded to above in a previous post (deposited about a foot of snow in parts of central and eastern Texas, a day or two later was socking the Washington, D.C. area when that plane crashed into the Potomac River).

That same storm buried Memphis. My grandparents were still alive then and my grandmother got stuck at work during that storm. I think the official snowfall was right around 13 inches for that one. Shut the city down for three or four days.

While you're enjoying your snow today, eat a Corky's BBQ sandwhich and wish a little back this way!

[srainhoutx]

Austin/San Antonio thoughts this afternoon regarding wintry precip...

THE BIG DILEMMA FOR THE FORECAST IS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WET
AND COLD PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE ALOFT. THE CONCERN IS RESOLVING THE ISSUE OF WINTERY
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL INDICATING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MIX OF RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY RAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE POTPOURRI OF WINTER WEATHER CONTINUES...WITH RAIN
AND/OR SNOW AND/OR SLEET POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BECOMING A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ON THURSDAY INDICATE MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP
BECOMING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE THURSDAY. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET ARE EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND RAISED
SURFACES...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS 24-36 HOUR TIME FRAME
WOULD BE OF MINIMAL IMPACT. IDEALLY...IT WOULD BE AS CLEAR-CUT AS
THIS...BUT ANTICIPATED EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE SURFACE AND
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY ALTER THE FORM OF THE
PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS SAID...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A COLD AND
WET MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE WINTER
EVENT.

And for those in NE TX, Shreveport...

.LONG TERM...
THE SAINTS WON THE SUPERBOWL AND SNOW IS IN THE FORECAST.

ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS AS EARLY AS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ECMWF...GFS...AND NAM ARE IN GENERAL
SYNC WITH THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL TAP A
MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE PACIFIC AS IT MOVES INTO ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO HOLD
ITS GRIP ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THAT THE
ATOMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL SUPPORT A SLEET AND SNOW MIX GENERALLY
NORTH OF A JACKSONVILLE...MANSFIELD...COLUMBIA LINE. THE MODEL
TREND HAS BEEN COOLER WITH EACH RUN HOWEVER THE KEY WILL BE THE IN
THE 800 TO 700 LAYER WHERE THE PROFILE COMES CLOSEST TO GETTING
ABOVE FREEZING. EITHER WAY...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT SLEET AND
SNOW IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE HIGHER POPS FROM THE MEX AND
GRIDDED MOS GUIDANCE IN THE AREAS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. SOUTH OF
THAT LINE..IT APPEARS A RAIN AND SLEET MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE UNLESS
THE COLUMN COOLS A LITTLE MORE. HPC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION GRAPHICS
TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING WINTER PRECIP THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER..BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
PRECIP TYPE...AMOUNTS ARE STILL A BIT TRICKY TO FORECAST.

A LOOK AT THE 1000-850...1000-700 AND 850...700 THICKNESSES
REVEALS THAT THEY ALL FALL WITHIN THE RANGE NEEDED TO SUPPORT
EITHER ALL SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY AM ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE JACKSONVILLE...MANSFIELD...COLUMBIA LINE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE EVENT COMES CLOSER AND THE MODELS CAN
GET A HANDLE ON THE DEPTH AND INTENSITY OF THE COLDER AIRMASS
WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN GENERALLY UNDERCUT ON THU AND FRI DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF FROZEN PRECIP AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ON THE
GROUND. GUIDANCE HAS MADE SIGNIFCANT DROPS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
TO BRING MAX TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 30S FOR THU FROM THE 50S IN THE EARLIER
WEEKEND RUNS.