Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Texas Snowman]

Well, at least for now, the Red River Valley is within the HPC's moderate probability zone for 4" of snow....

Yeah, and I think those in the Red River region up into the southern half of Oklahoma still need to watch this storm closely. The models so far have been looking pretty good for a light/moderate snow event up here. We might not get it as bad as the I-20 corridor, but 1-2+ inches still looks quite possible, if not likely IMO.

18z GFS snow map valid 00z Friday: http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png

1" line extends into southern 2/3rds of Oklahoma, and 3" line extends into southern 1/3rd of the state. The highest snow totals, around 4-5", are along the 1-20 corridor in Texas.

I hope that turns out to be somewhat accurate. Like Wxman57, our local KXII TV met, Steve LaNore, isn't too bullish on this being a big snow event in the Red River counties.

At least not yet...

[Portastorm]

Yeah, it's going to be a real close call for us.

I'm not picky. I don't need all snow. Am happy for an accumulating wintry mix!

[HockeyTx82]

NWS Ft. Worth has updated the forecast for around here.


http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 2=-97.1309

[Texas Snowman]

NWS Ft. Worth has updated the forecast for around here.


http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 2=-97.1309

Same here. Showing a 70% chance of snow on Thursday with a high of 33 degrees.

[Texas Snowman]

:uarrow:

Yeah, it's going to be a real close call for us.

I'm not picky. I don't need all snow. Am happy for an accumulating wintry mix!

I hope you get some winter fun Portastorm. Lace up those kicking shoes!!!

[Portastorm]

:uarrow:

Yeah, it's going to be a real close call for us.

I'm not picky. I don't need all snow. Am happy for an accumulating wintry mix!

I hope you get some winter fun Portastorm. Lace up those kicking shoes!!!

Thanks Snowman! I will have an announcement tomorrow morning about my kicking status and potential date with Lucy!

[Ntxw]

Not to move on so quickly, but the GFS has had eyes on another storm following this one for some time. That *possible* storm looks to have a very similar track if it materializes. Srain has posted the pattern continues courtesy of the Euro. I'm mentioning this because it's now within the 7 days time frame to be specific 156hrs.

this is 18z, 12z was much weaker. We should have a better idea after we're done with the Thursday storm.

[srainhoutx]

:uarrow:

Yeah, it's going to be a real close call for us.

I'm not picky. I don't need all snow. Am happy for an accumulating wintry mix!

At least I’m not talking you off the ledge just yet Portastorm. Seriously folks, everyone expect for far S TX needs to keep an eye on the situation. It remains very fluid and expect changes in the ‘finer details’ as we get into Tuesday/Wednesday morning.

[txagwxman]

Wow look at those storms NW of Houston heading towards Tomball! The one west of Tomball has rotation.

[mrgolf]

Texas snowman,i live in southaven,ms.Its just south of memphis by 10 miles.I used to live in memphis years ago.I enjoy winterwx,but its so tought to see it in our parts of the country.Wayyy too many things have to pan out just right.Hey,try to bring some snow our way.

[wgdade]

Very interesting forecast for TX this week. We will probably see a few flurries north of I-20 tonight and then the stage is set for what could be a major winter storm. The HPC actually as a 20% of a foot or more of snow near the Metroplex through 0Z Friday. Not sure I have ever seen that. Looks like a 24 to 36 hour perios of light to moderate snow. Temps look to remain at or just above freezing for most of the event. Looks like the perfect snow for me. Grassy and elevated surfaces covered with most of the roadways remaining wet. From Waco to Jacksonville to Center, a significant accumulation is looking more likely to me, around 3 to 5 inches. Someone will probably see more than 8 inches. BUFKIT data on the 12Z GFS puts 10 inches down in Tyler at a 10:1 ratio. This will be a very wet snow and probably take an hour or two to really get accumulations. I look for a 7:1 ratio but that still puts down a large swath of 7 inches. The next 48 hours will be fun to watch to say the least to see how this system develops.

Here is my latest blog write up. The snowfall accumulation map is from the 0Z GFS, 12Z GFS has more. Also, remember the meteogram in BUFKIT is backwards, time moves from right to left.
http://gdadeblog.blogspot.com/2010/02/r ... -this.html

[Texas SpeedDiva]

Hey Portastorm even the Statesman is getting into the act to torment you. Normally just lurk, but saw this and thought of you. Chance of snow later this week in Austin area.
http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/ ... _snow.html

[jasons2k]

Would not be surpised to see a severe thunderstorm warning for Montgomery County soon for hail on radar:





- Edited text and added radar shots.

[Ntxw]

Sounds like a rough commute home for the Houston metro, especially the nw areas. Stay safe.

[CaptinCrunch]

Very interesting forecast for TX this week. We will probably see a few flurries north of I-20 tonight and then the stage is set for what could be a major winter storm. The HPC actually as a 20% of a foot or more of snow near the Metroplex through 0Z Friday. Not sure I have ever seen that. Looks like a 24 to 36 hour perios of light to moderate snow. Temps look to remain at or just above freezing for most of the event. Looks like the perfect snow for me. Grassy and elevated surfaces covered with most of the roadways remaining wet. From Waco to Jacksonville to Center, a significant accumulation is looking more likely to me, around 3 to 5 inches. Someone will probably see more than 8 inches. BUFKIT data on the 12Z GFS puts 10 inches down in Tyler at a 10:1 ratio. This will be a very wet snow and probably take an hour or two to really get accumulations. I look for a 7:1 ratio but that still puts down a large swath of 7 inches. The next 48 hours will be fun to watch to say the least to see how this system develops.

Here is my latest blog write up. The snowfall accumulation map is from the 0Z GFS, 12Z GFS has more. Also, remember the meteogram in BUFKIT is backwards, time moves from right to left.
http://gdadeblog.blogspot.com/2010/02/r ... -this.html

Wednesday forecast will set the stage for this event

[Portastorm]

Hey Portastorm even the Statesman is getting into the act to torment you. Normally just lurk, but saw this and thought of you. Chance of snow later this week in Austin area.
http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/ ... _snow.html

Great ... now the S2K lurkers are giving me grief!

Texas SpeedDiva, I did see that headline earlier on the Statesman website. Thanks. What will happen here now is what usually happens when the media mentions the "s-word." Most will laugh and say "yeah right."

Austinites are generally very skeptical (as they should be) about winter weather and the possibility of winter weather.

[southerngale]

Zavalla is about 10 miles north of Rockland. Zavalla (Shreveport NWS) has sleet in the forecast for Wednesday night through Friday. Rockland (Lake Charles NWS) has all rain. It will be interesting to see where the rain/frozen precip line ends up being. I hope it's below me. Yeah, I know... fat chance!

[jasons2k]

Dang! (more details in USA forum viewtopic.php?f=24&t=96890&start=4400 )

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
534 PM CST MON FEB 8 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 600 PM CST

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 18z GFS cobb output obtained at the following link ( http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten ... index.html ) doesn't look good for those wanting big snows. Let's hope this is not a trend! In the 12z run it was showing 6+ inches for the metroplex region, but in the 18z run it is now showing 0 inches and keeps temperatures just warm enough for a very wet snow or a rain/snow mix (and thus very little actually sticks). Being that this is an 18z run though I wouldn't buy into it too much. Let's wait and see what the 00z GFS has to offer up first. Hopefully for north Texas snow lovers it will reverse back to higher numbers!

18z DFW output = http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten ... 3_kdfw.dat
18z DAL output = http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten ... 3_kdal.dat

vs.

12z DFW output = http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten ... 3_kdfw.dat
12z DAL output = http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten ... 3_kdal.dat

[Ntxw]

The 18z GFS cobb output obtained at the following link ( http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten ... index.html ) doesn't look good for those wanting big snows. Let's hope this is not a trend! In the 12z run it was showing 6+ inches for the metroplex region, but in the 18z run it is now showing 0 inches and keeps temperatures just warm enough for a very wet snow or a rain/snow mix (and thus very little actually sticks). Being that this is an 18z run though I wouldn't buy into it too much. Let's wait and see what the 00z GFS has to offer up. Hopefully for north Texas snow lovers it will reverse back to higher numbers!

DFW output = http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten ... 3_kdfw.dat
DAL output = http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten ... 3_kdal.dat

The NWS, HPC, and the best of all Wxman, all forecast snows if not significant snows for I-20. I feel good about that, the models are going to shift on the details until we get to the event. 6z and 18z are good trends but it's the 0z and 12z that I mostly base information on.

Also EWG I would keep an eye in southwest Oklahoma. NAM and GFS both show a good band coming through that region from Northwest Texas on Thurs.