Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

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jasons2k
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#5721 Postby jasons2k » Tue Feb 09, 2010 12:16 pm

Now that is an interesting run.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5722 Postby wxman57 » Tue Feb 09, 2010 12:19 pm

Latest GFS runs show half to 1/3 the amount of precip for the Dallas area that earlier runs predicted. I knew that the Sunday/Monday predictions of about 0.9" liquid looked way too high for a typical west Gulf low. 12Z GFS is a lot less (0.29") liquid precip amounts in the Metroplex. That might support a few inches of wet snow. Unless something else changes, the forecast is trending away from a major snow event in Texas.
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#5723 Postby DentonGal » Tue Feb 09, 2010 12:19 pm

Can someone please tell us what all this means for the DFW area and north? Thanks in advance.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5724 Postby Weatherdude20 » Tue Feb 09, 2010 12:20 pm

Lol check the 72hr on "the black and white charts"
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5725 Postby wxman22 » Tue Feb 09, 2010 12:21 pm

CMC definately looks nice but im not buying it...
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#5726 Postby txagwxman » Tue Feb 09, 2010 12:32 pm

Canadian bonkers...that would 6-12"...ain't buying that solution...I will post the ECMWF shortly.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5727 Postby Portastorm » Tue Feb 09, 2010 12:34 pm

Yeah ... c'mon txagwxman ... give us some hope! Heat Mizer (Wxman57) over there in Houston is raining on our winter parade today. :lol:
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5728 Postby Weatherdude20 » Tue Feb 09, 2010 12:35 pm

Im not go into it much but I really into it much at this point but, for now I actually think that 1-3" Is about right for the Metro now. The only thing is by Thrusday evening-Thursday night time preiod we could see some more snow, which could be the heaviest. Depending on if that plays out snow totals could be alot higher for DFW, but 1-3" is pretty accurate, but definatly isolated 3-5" totals are possible. About 1 if not 2 of the 1st inches will be wet, and slushy.

Its really disapointing how yesterday we were saying 10-12 inches now 1-3".
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5729 Postby txagwxman » Tue Feb 09, 2010 12:37 pm

Portastorm wrote:Yeah ... c'mon txagwxman ... give us some hope! Heat Mizer (Wxman57) over there in Houston is raining on our winter parade today. :lol:

TRYING MAN, TRYING!
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5730 Postby DentonGal » Tue Feb 09, 2010 12:38 pm

Portastorm wrote:Yeah ... c'mon txagwxman ... give us some hope! Heat Mizer (Wxman57) over there in Houston is raining on our winter parade today. :lol:


I completely agree! Let's run with that Canadian! :sled:
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#5731 Postby southerngale » Tue Feb 09, 2010 12:40 pm

I always liked those Canadians.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5732 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Feb 09, 2010 12:43 pm

Weatherdude20 wrote:Im not go into it much but I really into it much at this point but, for now I actually think that 1-3" Is about right for the Metro now. The only thing is by Thrusday evening-Thursday night time preiod we could see some more snow, which could be the heaviest. Depending on if that plays out snow totals could be alot higher for DFW, but 1-3" is pretty accurate, but definatly isolated 3-5" totals are possible. About 1 if not 2 of the 1st inches will be wet, and slushy.

Its really disapointing how yesterday we were saying 10-12 inches now 1-3".

Perhaps now you understand why the NWS is very cautious in pulling the trigger more than 36-48 hours out. :wink:
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5733 Postby orangeblood » Tue Feb 09, 2010 12:45 pm

Well at least some of the GFS ensemble members are showing a similar scenario that the Canadian is depicting.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5734 Postby Weatherdude20 » Tue Feb 09, 2010 12:46 pm

Dumb Model Inconsistency ! Lol. :uarrow:
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5735 Postby wxman57 » Tue Feb 09, 2010 12:48 pm

Portastorm wrote:Yeah ... c'mon txagwxman ... give us some hope! Heat Mizer (Wxman57) over there in Houston is raining on our winter parade today. :lol:


You got your winter precip yesterday. Just pretend that hail was sleet.

12Z GFS vertical profile for Thursday over Austin has that temperature within 1-3 deg of freezing all the way up to 10,000 ft. So you'll either get the coldest rain possible or a mix of rain/sleet/snow (more likely). It's not a profile for accumulating snow, but it's just the GFS. Haven't had a chance to look at the EC or CMC yet, preparing for a meeting.

Austin sounding animation:
http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/readyout/9946 ... f_anim.gif
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#5736 Postby gboudx » Tue Feb 09, 2010 12:57 pm

Tyler met Steve LaNore weighs in.
http://www.examiner.com/x-5182-Dallas-W ... iner-email
Atmospheric parameters continue to suggest a winter precipitation event for Thursday, which may last into Friday morning.

Three of the models (NAM, GFS, and ECMWF), are all in general agreement regarding the movement of an upper trough across Texas Thu-Fri.

The core of the trough (greatest upward motion) is projected to track across central Texas, placing the heaviest snow along or just south of the I-20 corridor. Cloud level temperatures are likely to be cold enough for snow formation. Of course a warmer cloud level would make this into a cold rain event, but this seems of lower probability based on the magnitude of the cold air already in place.

The uncertainty lies with available moisture, and surface temperatures.

The snow may accumulate on grassy areas and just make for wet roads; however, a heavy snowfall would likely accumulate at least as slush on roads. This would probably freeze Thursday night when surface temperatures approach freezing.

So this is still a developing situation, but the NWS is already placing snow odds at better than even money.

Given what’s taking place at both the upper and surface levels, this is in my opinion a good forecast for now.
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#5737 Postby txagwxman » Tue Feb 09, 2010 12:59 pm

So far ECMWF similar to the last run at 36 hours...
ECMWF very similar to the last run...snow WACO/DFW Thu....snow line close to CLL/AUS but like it a little further north...
None for Houston...bummer, but hey at least Waco/TPL/DFW/GGG/TYR get it.
Last edited by txagwxman on Tue Feb 09, 2010 1:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#5738 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Feb 09, 2010 1:02 pm

txagwxman wrote:So far ECMWF similar to the last run at 36 hours...



Thanks for the Updates txagwxman :wink:
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5739 Postby orangeblood » Tue Feb 09, 2010 1:05 pm

UK looks very good for a nice North Texas snow event. Much more in line with the Canadian.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5740 Postby BrokenGlass » Tue Feb 09, 2010 1:09 pm

wxman57 wrote:Latest GFS runs show half to 1/3 the amount of precip for the Dallas area that earlier runs predicted. I knew that the Sunday/Monday predictions of about 0.9" liquid looked way too high for a typical west Gulf low. 12Z GFS is a lot less (0.29") liquid precip amounts in the Metroplex. That might support a few inches of wet snow. Unless something else changes, the forecast is trending away from a major snow event in Texas.
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