Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[DentonGal]

Latest GFS runs show half to 1/3 the amount of precip for the Dallas area that earlier runs predicted. I knew that the Sunday/Monday predictions of about 0.9" liquid looked way too high for a typical west Gulf low. 12Z GFS is a lot less (0.29") liquid precip amounts in the Metroplex. That might support a few inches of wet snow. Unless something else changes, the forecast is trending away from a major snow event in Texas.

I don't like you any more.

LOL! I think I just pee'd my pants!

[srainhoutx]

So far ECMWF similar to the last run at 36 hours...
ECMWF very similar to the last run...snow WACO/DFW Thu....snow line close to CLL/AUS but like it a little further north...
None for Houston...bummer, but hey at least Waco/TPL/DFW/GGG/TYR get it.

Appears the EC is in the middle between the CMC and the GFS. Now on to the UKMET.

[cycloneye]

Now on to the UKMET

I dont comment on it,just posting the 12z UKMET run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[srainhoutx]

Now on to the UKMET

I dont comment on it,just posting the 12z UKMET.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

Thanks Luis! Updated HPC 5 Day QPF Totals...

[srainhoutx]

HPC Model Peference...hmmm...

...SYSTEM INITIALLY NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST...

PREFERENCE: ECMWF/UKMET/CMC COMPROMISE

THE NAM BECOMES A SLOW OUTLIER WITH THE UPR LOW COMPARED TO THE
GFS AND MAJORITY OTHER SOLNS FROM TUE NIGHT ONWARD. SOME 09Z
SREF/06-12Z GEFS MEMBERS DO OFFER POTENTIAL FOR THE SLOWER TIMING
THOUGH. THE NAM HAS YET TO DISPLAY A TREND TOWARD THE MAJORITY
FASTER SOLN BUT GIVEN A TYPICALLY SLOW BIAS WHEN THE NAM IS ON THE
SLOW EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD... WOULD FAVOR LEANING AWAY FROM
THE NAM WITH THE UPR SYSTEM AND EVENTUALLY THE SFC LOW THAT TRACKS
OVER THE GULF. AMONG THE NON-NAM GUIDANCE THE GFS BECOMES MORE
SUPPRESSED WITH THE GULF SFC LOW THAN MOST SOLNS ASIDE FROM THE
06-12Z GEFS MEANS... WHILE THE ECMWF/UKMET/CMC AND 00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW FASTER TIMING THAN THE GFS. THE
UKMET/CMC/ECMWF ARE ALL SOMEWHAT DEEPER THAN THE GFS WITH THE CORE
OF THE SHRTWV ALOFT BY LATE FRI. OVERALL THE GFS FCST APPEARS
BETTER THAN THE NAM... BUT GFS FLOW FROM THE PLAINS TO APLCHNS BY
LATE IN THE FCST IS NOT THE MOST PREFERRED. AS THE 12Z ECMWF
MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN... WILL ULTIMATELY
RECOMMEND A COMPROMISE AMONG THE ECMWF/UKMET/CMC WHICH TRACK THE
GULF OF MEXICO SFC LOW FARTHER NWD THAN THE GFS.

[srainhoutx]

I would love to be a 'fly on the wall' in the conference call between the HPC and the TX NWS offices today.

[WacoWx]

So far ECMWF similar to the last run at 36 hours...
ECMWF very similar to the last run...snow WACO/DFW Thu....snow line close to CLL/AUS but like it a little further north...
None for Houston...bummer, but hey at least Waco/TPL/DFW/GGG/TYR get it.

I assume CLL is College Station? If so, I want to believe the above statement so hard. still having a hard time believing we're going to be cold enough here for froven precip but thats just my pessimism keeping me grounded.

[Big O]

The 12z run of the European/ECMWF appears to show a surge of very cold air into the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS during days 7-10. I can't tell whether the STJ will eject any disturbances across Texas during this time frame. However, it appears to be increasingly probable that the pattern is retrograding with the trough becoming centered across the central and eastern US as opposed to just the eastern US. This is also supported by the European weeklies which show much below normal temperature anomalies across the eastern 2/3 of the US during weeks 1-4.

Anyone have any thoughts about precipitation possibilities during this time frame (days 7-10)?

[vbhoutex]

I would love to be a 'fly on the wall' in the conference call between the HPC and the TX NWS offices today.

That could be very interesting to say the least!!

[gboudx]

Not sure what it means, if anything, but the SWS for the DFW area is no longer showing as active for the area. Maybe an upgrade?

[Ntxw]

Not sure what it means, if anything, but the SWS for the DFW area is no longer showing as active for the area. Maybe an upgrade?

Is now a hazardous weather outlook.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE TEENS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING
ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF
A KILLEEN...WACO...ATHENS LINE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A
WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH. THE SNOW AND WINTRY MIX WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING.

[srainhoutx]

The 12z run of the European/ECMWF appears to show a surge of very cold air into the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS during days 7-10. I can't tell whether the STJ will eject any disturbances across Texas during this time frame. However, it appears to be increasingly probable that the pattern is retrograding with the trough becoming centered across the central and eastern US as opposed to just the eastern US. This is also supported by the European weeklies which show much below normal temperature anomalies across the eastern 2/3 of the US during weeks 1-4.

Anyone have any thoughts about precipitation possibilities during this time frame (days 7-10)?

The only thing that concerns me is that the STJ will shift S as the trough deepens. With that said it does open the door to a NW flow and we have seen disturbances rotate S during this type of setup (see what's happening today in the Midwest). Bears watching IMHO.

[gboudx]

Not sure what it means, if anything, but the SWS for the DFW area is no longer showing as active for the area. Maybe an upgrade?

Is now a hazardous weather outlook.

Yeah I saw that. But I just checked again and now the HWO is gone too. Hmmm.....

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Yea, it's weird that they posted that HWO at 1:36 and it's not there 15 minutes later.

[Weatherdude20]

[Portastorm]

OK ... it's time to speculate. So if HPC is right and a blend of the Euro/Canadian/UKMET is the way to go, then that means the surface low developing in the Gulf will be further north than what the GFS suggests. That could mean more precip further inland IIRC what Wxman57 posted yesterday or the day before about parameters for this event.

But in terms of real weather, I wonder what that model blend means. Maybe less aggresive warm air advection? I haven't looked upstream either to see what the Euro and CMC progged as strength of the high ... to see if maybe our surface temps would be a bit lower (or higher) than what the GFS suggests.

Anyone have ideas?

[gboudx]

:ggreen:

What do you know? Spill it.

[HockeyTx82]

Yea, it's weird that they posted that HWO at 1:36 and it's not there 15 minutes later.

I was just about to post the same thing. Something is going on.............

[srainhoutx]

:ggreen:

What do you know? Spill it.

[HockeyTx82]

That does not look anything like the map from yesterday, I don't like it. Take it away..............