Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[PTrackerLA]

Yep just saw the 12z GFS, just a heavy rain even for the south. Wonder what the 12z Euro will show?

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian out to 72 hours. In line with the Euro. Epic snowstorm for the Gulfcoast..this is crazy. I think the GFS is the outlier at this point.

[Dean4Storms]

Yep just saw the 12z GFS, just a heavy rain even for the south. Wonder what the 12z Euro will show?

Not buying the 12Z GFS with that track of the low, it has it moving ESE and I just don't see the ULL being that deep.

[Stormcenter]

Maybe it's confused and it thinks it's hurricane season already.

Seriously though it doesn't seem plausable at all so
maybe it's in la la land.

if the GFS is right nobody is getting snow.. could a pro met please tell me if the low could end up that far south? it doesnt seem reasonable to me.

[Ivanhater]

84 hours...Gulfcoast will be slammed if the Canadian is correct

[RNGR]

also, Canadian shows ALOT of blocking at 144. could get very cold after this snow

[Dean4Storms]

Yep, discard the track of that low in the 12Z GFS for now, no consistency and certainly an outlier. If it depicts it again at 18z and/or the other models jump on that solution then I will give it credence.

[SunnyThoughts]

Forecast for Friday.....Cloudy, snow likely in the morning, rain in the afternoon...chance of precipitation..60%.

*crossing my fingers*

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro...more snow for the Gulfcoast

[Stormcenter]

This is getting very interesting for the Gulf Coast folks.

[Stormcenter]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
204 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2010

VALID 12Z FRI FEB 12 2010 - 12Z TUE FEB 16 2010


...WINTER STORM FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST...


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED THE 00Z/09 ECMWF FOR DAYS 3 AND 4 ACROSS THE NATION...WITH A
GRADUAL INCORPORATION OF THE 00Z/09 ECENS MEAN THEREAFTER TO
ADDRESS THE UNCERTAINTIES IN SYNOPTIC DETAIL INHERENT TO THAT TIME
RANGE. PREFER THE NORTHERN MOST GUIDANCE WITH THE WAVE CROSSING
THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH MANY WAVES IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM THIS WINTER ULTIMATELY TRACKING LESS SUPPRESSED
THAN THE MODELS INITIALLY PROG. THE MANUAL PROGS INDICATE SNOW
AND ICE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR SOUTH...EXCEPT FOR SOUTH
CAROLINA WHERE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO SPREAD ALL THE
WAY TO THE COAST. CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BE THE ORDER OF THE WEEK
FOR THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST...WITH THE MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE HOLDING
OVER THE ROCKIES. FRONTS ARE EXPECT TO COME INTO THE NORTHWEST
OFF THE PACIFIC...WITH LESS ENERGY DIVING INTO CALIFORNIA.


FINAL...

THE 12Z/09 GEFS MEAN...ECMWF...AND GEM GLOBAL ALL TRENDED
NORTHWARD WITH THE GULF WAVE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...SO BUMPED UP PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FOR
THE FINAL ISSUANCE. THE GEM GLOBAL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE LOW ONCE IT REACHES THE ATLANTIC...LIFTING A DEEP CENTER A
GOOD BIT OF THE WAY TOWARD CAPE HATTERAS. THIS IS CERTAINLY A
TREND TO WATCH...WITH LARGE IMPACTS FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN
TERMS OF WINTER WEATHER. ELSEWHERE...STUCK WITH THE EARLIER BLEND
FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES...RULING THE GEM GLOBAL AS AN
AMPLIFIED OUTLIER AT THIS POINT WITH THE CLIPPER DIVING INTO THE
MIDWEST DAY 6.


CISCO

[PTrackerLA]

The latest Euro would still suggest rain and maybe some sleet mixed in for the I-10 corridor if I'm reading it correctly. Not getting my hopes up at all for this event, just more cold rain followed by a chilly Mardi Gras weekend.

[MGC]

We are considering a road trip Friday to go play in the snow. Currently thinking the Hattiesburg area. Still looks iffy for any right along the coast where I am. Saints winning the Super Bowl and getting to play in the snow in the same week....gotta love it......MGC

[TideJoe]

We are considering a road trip Friday to go play in the snow. Currently thinking the Hattiesburg area. Still looks iffy for any right along the coast where I am. Saints winning the Super Bowl and getting to play in the snow in the same week....gotta love it......MGC

I hope we finally get a good snowfall. The last couple systems have dumped the most in the McComb/Columbia area and we've gotten 1-2".

[attallaman]

We are considering a road trip Friday to go play in the snow. Currently thinking the Hattiesburg area. Still looks iffy for any right along the coast where I am. Saints winning the Super Bowl and getting to play in the snow in the same week....gotta love it......MGC

Have you considered going to Magee, MS? It's further N of Hattiesburg but if there's no snow near Magee you might have to deal with ice if the precip falls that far to the N.

[attallaman]

We are considering a road trip Friday to go play in the snow. Currently thinking the Hattiesburg area. Still looks iffy for any right along the coast where I am. Saints winning the Super Bowl and getting to play in the snow in the same week....gotta love it......MGC

I hope we finally get a good snowfall. The last couple systems have dumped the most in the McComb/Columbia area and we've gotten 1-2".

I'd settle for a 1-2" snow event here along the coast, 1-2" if it sticks for a day would be good enough for some photos.

[Agua]

I was going up to Mendenhall on Friday evening for the 4 day holiday anyway. Hope the roads aren't impassable.

[mitchelliii]

Do Euro and GFS models usually disagree by this? What normally happens when they get way out of sync?

Still looking bullishly for winter weather weather in GA.

[TideJoe]

We are considering a road trip Friday to go play in the snow. Currently thinking the Hattiesburg area. Still looks iffy for any right along the coast where I am. Saints winning the Super Bowl and getting to play in the snow in the same week....gotta love it......MGC

I hope we finally get a good snowfall. The last couple systems have dumped the most in the McComb/Columbia area and we've gotten 1-2".

I'd settle for a 1-2" snow event here along the coast, 1-2" if it sticks for a day would be good enough for some photos.

We got 1-2" in December and it was gone by noon. The snow stopped falling just right after midnight. We should get to see more this time with the snow falling after the sun comes up.

[timNms]

I'm about 20 miles north of Hattiesburg. With the December snow, we got about an inch or 2 but a lot of it melted quickly after the heavy snow ended. I think it was because the ground was so wet from all the rain.
Hopefully with this potential storm, we'll see at least a couple of inches of snow that doesn't melt as fast as it falls (except for on the roads....we southerners don't know howta drive in that stuff ) I hope they're not crying "wolf" again.
If this forecast verifies and we get the 2-4 inches they are predicting, it will be nice for us snow lovers. Unfortunately, Thurs night is one of my wife's nights to work at the hospital. She may be stuck there till the snow melts away on Saturday