Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
DFW Stormwatcher
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 240
Age: 54
Joined: Sun Dec 27, 2009 10:35 pm
Location: Keller, Tx

Re: Re:

#5861 Postby DFW Stormwatcher » Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:39 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:
DFW Stormwatcher wrote:It was brought up earlier in this thread, but last year, they virtually guaranteed frozen precip....snow storm along with Pete Delkus and most of the other local tv mets and nothing happened. They even thought it was still going to happen day of, there was lots of public criticism about that forecast. So considering the dubious models, I don't blame them for holding back, this is anything but a clear cut winter storm at this point and I want snow as much as anyone. I'm sure warnings will come tomorrow if the models show more stability.


I understand all of that - they don't won't to cry wolf for a metro area of multiple millions. And as I've opined before, the skill set to accurately forecast winter weather probably isn't all that important in being a met in the DFW office - this is severe weather and drought country.

My only thing is that if you're not going to go out on a limb and make a forecast until the last possible second, how can you claim to have a forecast that has or has not verified?


You do what Pete Delkus did tonight on Channel 8 lol, somehow he managed to include everything under the sun in the forecast, you can bet he'll be saying he was right regardless of what happens.
0 likes   
Disclaimer: This is not an official weather forecast. I am only an amateur weather enthusiast therefore any weather forecasts or opinions should be taken with a grain of salt. Hook em Horns!

HockeyTx82
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2540
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
Location: Ponder, TX

Re: Re:

#5862 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:40 pm

wxag07 wrote:they have 1-2 inches in their hazardous product and in the forecast. temperatures are forecasted to be near or above freezing so their will be no travel impacts. what do you want them to do...say all hell is going to break loose...when no computer model currently says it will?


No, just wishing that things we better defined and we had a better idea. Just anxious I guess. :ggreen:
0 likes   
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22790
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5863 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:42 pm

wxag07 wrote:BTW...ive been lurking for awhile and just registered for an account. I like this site...good info from everyone!


Welcome onboard! Always nice to see new members post! We can be crazy at times (-removed- and all) but hey it's all in fun! You can help us cheer for the Portastorm! :wink:
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
iorange55
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2388
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2008 9:47 pm
Location: Big D

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5864 Postby iorange55 » Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:42 pm

Well I couldn't stay away, and it looks like the 0z's are trending back towards yesterday :] so that is a good sign. Maybe I tripped over the wagon too soon.
0 likes   

HockeyTx82
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2540
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
Location: Ponder, TX

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5865 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:43 pm

wxag07 wrote:BTW...ive been lurking for awhile and just registered for an account. I like this site...good info from everyone!


Welcome!!!! Hope you find this forum as fun as I have.
0 likes   
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29113
Age: 73
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5866 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:44 pm

wxag07 wrote:BTW...ive been lurking for awhile and just registered for an account. I like this site...good info from everyone!

Welcome aboard!! We appreciate your input. Thanks for the kudos about the site.
0 likes   
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Image

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22790
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5867 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:44 pm

iorange55 wrote:Well I couldn't stay away, and it looks like the 0z's are trending back towards yesterday :] so that is a good sign. Maybe I tripped over the wagon too soon.


:lol: :cheesy: :ggreen: Once you're on it, you can never get off!

GFS is trending more to what I'm thinking. Getting better I guess.
Last edited by Ntxw on Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


HockeyTx82
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2540
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
Location: Ponder, TX

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5868 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:45 pm

iorange55 wrote:Well I couldn't stay away, and it looks like the 0z's are trending back towards yesterday :] so that is a good sign. Maybe I tripped over the wagon too soon.


I knew it, welcome back!!! :cheesy:
0 likes   
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5869 Postby Portastorm » Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:47 pm

:uarrow:

You Metroplexers look good through 36 hours per the 0z GFS. 850 line south of you.
0 likes   

HockeyTx82
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2540
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
Location: Ponder, TX

#5870 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:47 pm

FOX 4 DFW seems to be getting on board. Has snow all over the DFW area with his forecast he just had. Hmm..... :froze:
0 likes   
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3714
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re: Re:

#5871 Postby orangeblood » Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:47 pm

they have 1-2 inches in their hazardous product and in the forecast. temperatures are forecasted to be near or above freezing so their will be no travel impacts. what do you want them to do? say all hell is going to break loose when no computer model currently says it will?[/quote]

How about put out a statement informing the public of what is going on with the developing storm system? All of the other offices seem to be doing just that, why not Fort Worth?
0 likes   

User avatar
iorange55
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2388
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2008 9:47 pm
Location: Big D

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5872 Postby iorange55 » Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:49 pm

From what I can see it looks like the models are now merging in between the two extremes the 8-10 inches and the 1 inch. Looks to be maybe 3-5, eh? eh? maybe? Hopefully.


Seems more believable than the two extremes.
0 likes   

msstateguy83

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5873 Postby msstateguy83 » Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:50 pm

000
FXUS64 KOUN 100226
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
826 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGE WAS LOCATED ALONG TEXAS PANHANDLE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
BORDER THIS EVENING. AFTER A GUSTY AFTERNOON...WINDS HAVE DROPPED
TO AT OR BELOW 5 KNOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH WILL SLIP
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT KEEPING WINDS LIGHT. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WERE ADVANCING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TEXAS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. LOCALLY-RUN 4 KM WRF
MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND BRINGS THICKER
CLOUDS TO NEAR WOODWARD...EL RENO...MARIETTA LINE BY 09Z. THE
PROGRESS OF THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A MAJOR INFLUENCE ON HOW COLD
TEMPERATURES CAN GET TONIGHT UNDER WHAT OTHERWISE WOULD BE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE KEPT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES NEAR PREVIOUS VALUES OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...BUT LOWERED THEM SLIGHTLY CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR LONGEST. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO FORECAST.

QUICK LOOK AT NEW NAM SHOWS TONIGHT`S RUN REMAINS GENERALLY
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUN...THOUGH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY SLOWER.
PATH OF UPPER SYSTEM IS STILL WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUGGESTING
AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS ON OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE SMALL.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22790
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

#5874 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:51 pm

iorange55 wrote:From what I can see it looks like the models are now merging in between the two extremes the 8-10 inches and the 1 inch. Looks to be maybe 3-5, eh? eh? maybe? Hopefully.


Seems more believable than the two extremes.


Wxman had 3-6. That still looks to hold well tbh.

GFS is still having issues with the feature coming down from Canada. Parts of the southern states north of immediate coast who looked to be ripped off shouldn't worry yet either.
Last edited by Ntxw on Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:56 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


msstateguy83

#5875 Postby msstateguy83 » Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:52 pm

i totally disagree with oun's statement on that even b/c i think as far north as the redriver now has the chance of
mod-heavy accumulations... **including oun's sw forecast zone of northwestern tx**


edit: no graphic yet but i would go 4-5 up along the red river and 6-8 with poss isol amts of 9" near the metroplex....
Last edited by msstateguy83 on Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

HockeyTx82
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2540
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
Location: Ponder, TX

Re: Re:

#5876 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:53 pm

orangeblood wrote:they have 1-2 inches in their hazardous product and in the forecast. temperatures are forecasted to be near or above freezing so their will be no travel impacts. what do you want them to do? say all hell is going to break loose when no computer model currently says it will?


How about put out a statement informing the public of what is going on with the developing storm system? All of the other offices seem to be doing just that, why not Fort Worth?[/quote]

I agree, last thing we need is for people not to know if this is going to happen. At least the TV mets here in Dallas have the guts to go out and mention it when our NWS does not. Who do they answer to if they are wrong, TV mets that is? Do they have to follow what the NWS puts out? I ask it with all due respect becuase I have always wanted to know and I mean no disrespect to our pro mets on here.
0 likes   
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5877 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:56 pm

msstateguy83 wrote:000
FXUS64 KOUN 100226
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
826 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGE WAS LOCATED ALONG TEXAS PANHANDLE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
BORDER THIS EVENING. AFTER A GUSTY AFTERNOON...WINDS HAVE DROPPED
TO AT OR BELOW 5 KNOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH WILL SLIP
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT KEEPING WINDS LIGHT. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WERE ADVANCING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TEXAS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. LOCALLY-RUN 4 KM WRF
MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND BRINGS THICKER
CLOUDS TO NEAR WOODWARD...EL RENO...MARIETTA LINE BY 09Z. THE
PROGRESS OF THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A MAJOR INFLUENCE ON HOW COLD
TEMPERATURES CAN GET TONIGHT UNDER WHAT OTHERWISE WOULD BE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE KEPT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES NEAR PREVIOUS VALUES OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...BUT LOWERED THEM SLIGHTLY CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR LONGEST. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO FORECAST.

QUICK LOOK AT NEW NAM SHOWS TONIGHT`S RUN REMAINS GENERALLY
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUN...THOUGH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY SLOWER.
PATH OF UPPER SYSTEM IS STILL WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUGGESTING
AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS ON OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE SMALL.
They posted that only a few frames into the new run. I'm sure that they would probably have had a slightly different tone had the run reached hour 42 and beyond.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Tue Feb 09, 2010 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
RNGR
Military Member
Military Member
Posts: 153
Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 1:13 pm
Location: Ft. Benning Ga

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5878 Postby RNGR » Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:59 pm

DFW is forecasting snow.. im not sure why people are saying they havent mentioned it. Im sure the exact accumulations will be worked out tomorrow and a statement will be issued.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=32.7872745269555&lon=-96.78268432617187&site=fwd&smap=1&marine=0&unit=0&lg=en
0 likes   
"It is better to live one day as a lion than a hundred years as a sheep"

HockeyTx82
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2540
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
Location: Ponder, TX

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#5879 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Feb 09, 2010 11:00 pm

RNGR wrote:DFW is forecasting snow.. im not sure why people are saying they havent mentioned it. Im sure the exact accumulations will be worked out tomorrow and a statement will be issued.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=32.7872745269555&lon=-96.78268432617187&site=fwd&smap=1&marine=0&unit=0&lg=en


It was just snow earlier today, now it's rain/snow.
0 likes   
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

msstateguy83

#5880 Postby msstateguy83 » Tue Feb 09, 2010 11:00 pm

iam off to bed, gonna try and get up extra early to review the new 06z runs that come out late it should be interesting to say the least if anything i expect a more upward trend on the strength per the latest sat imagery... we shall see but fellow texans this looks VERY promising :wink:
0 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests