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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica=High Surf Advisory until 9 PM AST

#3701 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 07, 2010 2:17 pm

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST SUN FEB 7 2010

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION....ALTHOUGH THE DOPPLER RADAR IS NOT SHOWING ANY
SIGNIFICANTLY RAINFALL ACTIVITY OVER LAND THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS
AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

A MID TO UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE
LOCAL REGION...LIMITING THE CLOUD AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY. A THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LOCAL REGION BUT IT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...THEREFORE
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE INCOMING
WEEK

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STATIONED SW-NE THROUGH TIST
AND MAY DISSIPATE IN PLACE. WINDS ARE LIGHT ON BOTH SIDES AND NEAR
LAND WILL BE VARIABLE. EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. LOOKING AT
SAT IMAGES AT 07/18Z...ASH FROM MONTSERRAT WAS MOVING DUE NORTH AND
EAST OF BOTH TAF STATIONS TNCM AND TKPK. LOW LEVEL FLOW SOUTHEAST OF
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO TURN FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH
08/18Z...AND THE ASH PLUME IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER TNCM AND TKPK
SOMETIME OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AT THIS MOMENT THE BUOY 41043 HAVE ALREADY REPORTED A
SUBSIDING TREND...WITH SWELL AT 7.2 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 14.8
SECOND. THEREFORE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
BE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER PULSE WILL BE REACHING
OUR WATERS ON TUESDAY BUT A MUCH LARGER NORTHERLY SWELL WILL
REACHING OUR LOCAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY.
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Re: Caribbean Basin & Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3702 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 07, 2010 10:11 pm

Updated night discussion by NWS San Juan

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1033 PM AST SUN FEB 7 2010

.UPDATE...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUED ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. NO PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OR REPORTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS TODAY...AS CONSIDERABLY DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAILED. A WEAKENING/DISSIPATING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC JUST NORTHWEST OF
THE LOCAL REGION. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...THEN STALL JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY. DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK...EXPECT BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TO EVENTUALLY HELP PUSH SOME
FRONTAL MOISTURE REMNANTS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...BUT
NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SOME MINOR
CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS BUT OVERALL INHERITED FORECAST HAD
GOOD HANDLE ON PRESENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ALL PR/USVI SITES WITH NO OPERATIONAL IMPACTS. WINDS
ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES REGION.
WINDS TO BE NWLY ACROSS TJBQ...NORTHERLY AFTER 15Z AT TJSJ...AND
SOUTHERLY ALL SITES TO THE EAST BUT LESS THAN 10 KT AT ALL SITES. ASH
FROM MONTSERRAT MOVING DUE NORTH LIKELY SOMEWHAT NEAR BOTH TAF
STATIONS TNCM AND TKPK. LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY OVER
NORTHERN LEEWARDS AS BOUNDARY APPROACHES OVERNIGHT ALLOWING ASH TO
PUSH EAST OF THESE SITES BY MORNING.

.MARINE...LATEST DATA OBTAINED FROM THE NORTHERN BUOY 41043
SUGGESTED THAT NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS HAVE CONTINUED TO SUBSIDE.
SEAS OF 7 FEET OR GREATER ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE CANCELLED DUE TO THE DECREASING SEAS.
IN ADDITION...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS
WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...HAVE NOW DROPPED BELOW THE 10 FEET CRITERIA...
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH FACING COASTLINE OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. VISITORS AND LOCAL
BEACH GOERS SHOULD HOWEVER REMAIN VIGILANT TO THE CHANGING MARINE
CONDITIONS...AS THERE IS STILL A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS AS THE SWELLS SLOWLY TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

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Re: Caribbean Basin & Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3703 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 08, 2010 6:50 am

Good morning to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
440 AM AST MON FEB 8 2010

.SYNOPSIS...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LATE IN THE WEEK EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
BY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN...HOWEVER VERY MINIMAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS HISPANIOLA THIS
MORNING IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
WEATHER AS IT IS FORECAST TO STALL AND DISSIPATE JUST NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT THAT WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE
OFF THE EASTERN SEA BOARD LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...WILL BRING
A BETTER SHOT OF SHOWERS TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS NEXT LOW
WILL BE LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS...WHICH WILL INVADE
THE LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FOR NEXT 24 HOURS IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OF 10-12
KTS. THIS WILL STEER VA FROM MONTSERRAT NEAR TKPK TODAY...BUT
LATEST FORECAST KEEPS VA JUST TO THE EAST OF BOTH TKPK AND TNCM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DECREASING SWELLS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY. A BATCH OF SWELL GENERATED FROM THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REACH
THE LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE LOCAL OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES. A SECOND BATCH OF MUCH LARGER NORTHERLY SWELL IS
FORECAST TO BE GENERATED BY A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO EXIT THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. ON THURSDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
UPC0MING WEEKEND.
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Re: Caribbean Basin & Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3704 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:57 am

Is very interesting that we are in Febuary and the Mean Development Region (MDR) plus Eastern Atlantic temperatures are running a bit above average.Lets see how the hurricane belt from Africa to the Caribbean does in the comming weeks because if they continue above normal,then it may be a favorable factor to fuel the systems in that area.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html

Image

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsst.shtml

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Re: Caribbean Basin & Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3705 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 08, 2010 1:58 pm

Afternoon Discussion by NWS San Juan

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 PM AST MON FEB 8 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE CARIBBEAN AS A STRONG JET AT MID LATITUDES UNDULATES WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
SHIFTS INTO THE CARIBBEAN TOMORROW AND RETURNS ON SUNDAY TO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. MID LAYERS REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK FRONT LIES DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA WITH THE TAIL OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT AND TROUGH WILL RETREAT TO
THE NORTHEAST AS A SECOND FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER PUERTO RICO
IN A VERY WEAKENED CONDITION AND DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH ON SATURDAY.
AIR AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE DRY...SOME SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL ZONE ITSELF ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...THE DRY PERIOD THAT HAS SETTLED
IN OVER THIS PORTION OF THE GREATER ANTILLES IS BECOMING MORE AND
MORE APPARENT AND HAVE DROPPED POPS ACCORDINGLY. SHOWERS DID NOT
FORM YESTERDAY OVER LAND AND LOWER LEVELS ARE DRYER TODAY THAN
THEY WERE YESTERDAY. INDEED MOST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS RAIN
FREE TODAY AND WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS BODES WELL FOR DRY
CONDITIONS NEXT 72 HOURS. THE FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE HAS BEEN
FORECAST CONSISTENTLY BY THE GFS AND IS COMING IN RANGE OF THE NAM
NOW WITH SIMILAR RESULTS. THE FRONT IN PLACE NOW IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEAST AS A SECOND FRONT...CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES...MOVES THROUGH CUBA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. WHEN IT
APPROACHES OUR AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT IT SHOULD CARRY SPOTTY RAIN
THAT WILL VISIT THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS BUT SHOULD NOT BRING MUCH ACCUMULATION TO PUERTO
RICO OR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WHEN IT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY. THE GFS
SHOWS IT DISSIPATING AND MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH VERY DRY
AIR BEHIND IT ON SATURDAY THAT SHOULD ROUND OUT YET ANOTHER SUNNY
WEEKEND FOR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS. STILL
EXPECT VOLCANIC ASH FROM MONTSERRAT TO REMAIN NEAR TKPK...AND
ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY IN TAF...ASH MAY WELL ENCOMPASS TKPK BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL COME UP IN RESPONSE TO THE SWELL MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF A STORM OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND EASTERN CANADA AND
THE WATERS TO THEIR SOUTH. THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY BRIEF EPISODE
THAT IS EXPECTED TO END WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL GO WITH THIS
FORECAST FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH THE LAST EPISODE LASTED LONGER THAN
EXPECTED AND MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED IN CASE 7 FOOT SEAS
SHOULD LINGER IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEN SEAS COME UP
IN A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT WAY ON FRIDAY AND VERY SLOWLY DIMINISH
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN ALL
NORTHERN WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND ON ALL COASTS WITH A NORTHERN EXPOSURE.

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Re: Caribbean Basin - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3706 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 08, 2010 6:12 pm

January was a record breaking rainfall month in San Juan,but Febuary so far has been the contrary as in the first 8 days of the month only 0.01 has fallen.I have to say that Febuary is one of the most driests months of the year so in some ways is normal.However,already Febuary is below normal on the rainfall.

http://www.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=sju

Code: Select all

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
..................................................................

PRECIPITATION (IN)
  TODAY            0.00          0.62 2009   0.09  -0.09     0.62
  MONTH TO DATE    0.01                      0.72  -0.71     1.15
  SINCE DEC 1     12.91                      8.31   4.60     8.22
  SINCE JAN 1     11.08                      3.74   7.34     3.64
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Re: Caribbeann - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3707 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 09, 2010 7:07 am

Good morning to all our Caribbean and Centralamerican friends.Be careful in the beaches as the swells are high today.The dry spell continues today for the Eastern Caribbean islands.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
415 AM AST TUE FEB 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WRN AND CNTRL ATLC WITH
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA. A CDFNT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRI WITH LARGE NORTH SWELLS RESULTING IN
HAZARDOUS SEAS AND VERY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE ATLC
COASTLINE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE THU
ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SCT SHRAS TO DEVELOP
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH STEERING WINDS BECOMING
MORE SWRLY ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL FOCUS ON THE ERN
THIRD OF THE ISLAND. ACTUAL CDFNT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRI WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLC COAST. BIGGEST IMPACT
FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS
THAT WILL CREATE LARGE BREAKING WAVE ACTION ALONG THE ATLC
COASTLINE. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL AS
SWELL EVENT WILL COINCIDE WITH A NEW MOON WHEN TIDES ARE HIGHEST.
WINDS TURN SRLY AGAIN FOR SAT AND SUN AS FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTH WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR TODAY AS BUOY 41043 IS
SHOWING 7 FT SWELLS AROUND 14 SECS AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SWELLS
REMAINING AROUND 7 FT FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SURF HEIGHT PREDICTOR
TOOL SHOWS BREAKERS AROUND 10 FT THEREFORE ISSUED A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY. ANOTHER HIGH SURF ADVZY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR FRI AND
SAT.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL
TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LLVL EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
AND NO SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED. VA EMISSIONS FROM MONTSERRAT
CONTINUE...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF THE LOCAL AIRPORTS.


&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41043 INDICATING 2.1 METER SEAS AND GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SEAS REMAIN LIKE THAT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW.
THEREFORE...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT. GUIDANCE INDICATING 13-15 FT
SEAS IN NNW SWELLS WILL AFFECT ATLC WATERS FRI-FRI NIGHT.

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Re: Caribbeann - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3708 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 09, 2010 2:30 pm

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST TUE FEB 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY WITH LARGE NORTH SWELLS
RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS SEAS AND VERY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUE
DOMINATING THE LOCAL WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY...HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS FEATURE. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT...IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
FEATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE
LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS OF
10-15 KTS AND LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...VERY LARGE...AND LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS...WILL
GENERATE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN EXPOSED
COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
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#3709 Postby Gustywind » Tue Feb 09, 2010 5:10 pm

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Re: Caribbeann - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3710 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 09, 2010 6:14 pm

:uarrow: It has been very dry in the Eastern Caribbean especially in the Lesser Antilles chain as the ridge of high pressure has been parked just east of the Caribbean all this winter.It would be interesting to know from our friends how are things in the islands in terms of how long it has not rained and how bad is the drought.
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Re: Caribbeann - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3711 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 10, 2010 5:47 am

Good morning to all.Pay attention to the seas as it is going to be very rough this weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
429 AM AST WED FEB 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRI WITH
LARGE NORTH SWELLS CREATING VERY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND
POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING FRI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER FAIRLY DRY DAY EXPECTED TODAY. THINGS CHANGE
ON THU AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND CAP WEAKENS WITH PREFRONTAL
TROUGH INCREASING SFC CONVERGENCE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT SHRAS
TO DEVELOP THAT SHOULD CONCENTRATE IN THE ERN THIRD OF THE ISLAND
AS STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE FROM THE WSW. CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH
SIG SNOWSTORM IN THE NATION`S CAPITAL WILL RACE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
WEST ATLC PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRI. ANTICIPATE SCT SHRAS
ALONG THE ATLC COASTLINE AND USVI AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY. BIGGEST
IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE LARGE NORTH SWELLS THAT WILL
DISCUSS BELOW. FRONT DISSIPATES ON SAT WITH A QUICK RETURN TO
TYPICAL DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FEB THAT WILL LIKELY LAST INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL GENERATE LARGE
LONG PERIOD SWELLS WHICH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING
FOR SVRL DAYS AND BRINGS INTO OUR ATLC COASTLINE FRI. LATEST
OUTPUT FROM NAH MODEL BRINGS 13 FT SWELLS AT 14 SECS FROM THE
NORTH EARLY FRI. SHALLOW-WATER WAVE CALCULATOR INDICATES BREAKERS
OF 20+ FEET LIKELY CREATING VERY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS. THIS
TYPE OF BREAKING WAVE ACTION WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WATER
RISES OF 2-4 FT ACCORDING TO THE SHALLOW-WATER WAVE CALCULATOR AND
ADDING THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE WHICH SHOULD BE ONE OF THE
HIGHEST AS THE MOON GETS CLOSE TO ITS NEW PHASE. BASED ON PAST
EVENTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE SOME AREAS ALONG THE ATLC COASTLINE HAVE
EXPERIENCED COASTAL FLOODING HENCE THE REASON FOR THE COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH. A HIGH SURF WARNING MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED FOR FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH
SHIFTING WINDS FRI WITH FROPA. VFR CONDITIONS SAT INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...SHIP REPORTS STILL INDICATING 2-METER SEAS ACROSS AMZ710
THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP SCA TILL EXPIRATION TIME. SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THU NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE RAPIDLY FRI
MORNING AS LARGE NORTH SWELLS ARRIVE INTO OUR ATLC COASTLINE.
13-15 FT SEAS STILL FORECAST BY NAH MODEL.
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Re: Caribbeann - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3712 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 10, 2010 5:49 am

Coastal Flood Watch in effect from friday morning

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
410 AM AST WED FEB 10 2010

...COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE FRIDAY...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-VIZ001-101615-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.CF.A.0001.100212T1200Z-100213T0800Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
410 AM AST WED FEB 10 2010

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC.
VERY STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
GENERATE LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS THAT WILL ARRIVE INTO OUR
ATLANTIC COASTLINE FRIDAY MORNING. THE RESULTANT BREAKING WAVE
ACTION WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WATER RISE AT THE COAST THAT
COULD RESULT IN FLOODING. WATER RISES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION
WILL BE DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

THE TIMES OF THE HIGH TIDE FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 8:33 AM AST FRIDAY MORNING
MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 8:56 AM AST FRIDAY MORNING

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
COASTAL FLOODING...CAUSING INUNDATION OF COASTAL ROADS...LOW
LYING AREAS...AND BEACH EROSION. RESIDENTS AND LOCAL OFFICIALS
SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS IN CASE COASTAL
FLOODING OCCURS OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. THIS SITUATION WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED. KEEP TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION. WHILE THERE IS STILL TIME...COASTAL RESIDENTS
SHOULD MAKE IMPORTANT PRELIMINARY PLANS TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE
AND PROPERTY.

WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED IMMEDIATELY AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
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Re: Caribbeann - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3713 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 10, 2010 5:51 am

Special Public Statement

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 PM AST TUE FEB 9 2010

...MAJOR SWELL EVENT EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG THE
NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL EXIT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. AS WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW INCREASE...VERY LARGE LONG
PERIOD SWELLS WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS. DUE TO
THE INTENSE NATURE OF THIS STORM...VERY LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG NORTH FACING COASTLINES AND ALL
REEFS ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTS.

BREAKING WAVES GREATER THAN 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
SWELLS...AS WELL AS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
EVEN BEACHES WHICH NORMALLY ARE PROTECTED TO SOME EXTENT FROM
AVERAGE WINTER SWELLS MAY BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.

RESIDENTS AND TOURISTS SHOULD MAKE ALTERNATIVE PLANS AND NOT GO
INTO THE WATER OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SOUTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN COASTS OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY SAFER AND SHOULD BE
CONSIDERED AS AN ALTERNATE. ADDITIONALLY...SMALL CRAFT ATTEMPTING TO
CROSS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AREAS WHERE BREAKING WAVES DEVELOP ARE
STRONGLY URGED TO STAY ALERT TO THE FORECAST AND START THINKING
ABOUT ALTERNATE PLANS.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LOCAL FORECAST AS CONDITIONS CHANGE AND
MORE PRECISE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE LEADING UP TO FRIDAY.
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Re: Caribbeann - Centralamerica=Coastal Flood Watch

#3714 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 10, 2010 3:41 pm

Afternoon Discussion by NWS San Juan


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST WED FEB 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOCAL AREA BUT
WILL START TO MOVE EASTWARD AS COLD FRONT DIGS SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER VERY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE PREVAILED
OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY CLOUDS AND VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE NOW LOCATED EAST OF VIRGINIA WILL DIG QUICKLY SOUTHEAST
FOR THE NEXT 60 TO 72 HOURS...INCREASING THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE QUICKLY AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY.
LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT COULD COMBINE WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS AND GENERATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE
LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VA WILL AFFECT TISX...AND
TKPK AT LEAST THROUGH 10/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD...NORTHWEST SWELLS..ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES BY FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN RAPIDLY BUILD AND BECOME MORE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN
PRODUCE VERY HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS...AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS...BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
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Re: Caribbeann - Centralamerica=Coastal Flood Watch

#3715 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 10, 2010 3:46 pm

Marine Weather Statement

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
337 PM AST WED FEB 10 2010

AMZ710-712-715-722-725-732-741-742-745-110345-
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT
10 NM-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
337 PM AST WED FEB 10 2010

...MAJOR SWELL EVENT EXPECTED TO IMPACT LOCAL WATERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE ATLANTIC OFF OF NEW JERSEY WILL
EXIT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. AS WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW INCREASE...VERY LARGE LONG
PERIOD SWELLS WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS. DUE TO
THE INTENSE NATURE OF THIS STORM...VERY LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG NORTH FACING COASTLINES AND ALL
REEFS ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTS.

OPEN OCEAN WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 15 FEET WITH BREAKING WAVES
GREATER THAN 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE BUILDING NORTHERLY
SWELLS. EVEN WATERS WHICH ARE NORMALLY PROTECTED FROM AVERAGE
WINTER SWELLS MAY BE IMPACTED BY THIS EVENT.

BOATERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE INEXPERIENCED OR OPERATING SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD PLAN TO NOT LEAVE PORT ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

STAY TUNED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENT UPDATES OR POSSIBLE WATCHES
OR WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
SAN JUAN.
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Re: Caribbeann - Centralamerica=Coastal Flood Watch

#3716 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 10, 2010 8:13 pm

Updated discussion by NWS San Juan

It appears that this upcoming swell event will be more dangerous than the mid-december one so take all precautions in the beaches and dont sail offshore in small boats.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
827 PM AST WED FEB 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. MINOR
CHANGES MADE TO POPS WITH FRONT COMING IN THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SAT IMAGERY SHOWING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT
WILL BE VERY WEAK AND LIKELY HARD TO OVERCOME CURRENT VERY DRY
ATMOS. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE MARINE SITUATION...SEE BELOW
FOR MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE
LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT BETWEEN 11/18Z AND
11/22Z OVER INTERIOR PUERTO RICO INCLUDING TJMZ. SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. VA WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT TKPK AS WINDS ARE NEARLY SOUTHERLY AT PLUME LEVELS USING
LAST VISIBLE IMAGE AND MODEL GUIDANCE. PLUME OVER TISX EARLIER
APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA AND DIFFUSING OUT.


&&

.MARINE...VIGOROUS WINTER STORM OVER NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
ALREADY PRODUCING GALE FORCED WINDS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST...WITH FETCH TAKING SHAPE. ALSO MAY HAVE SOME HURRICANE
FORCED WINDS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL END
UP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND BECOMING NORTHERLY...WHICH WILL
ALSO ADD TO THE DEVELOPING FETCH HEADED TOWARDS NE CARIBBEAN. BUOY
41010 DUE EAST OF ABOUT DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA ALREADY AT 10
SECONDS...TWO SECONDS HIGHER THAN WNA MODELS. LAST TWO LARGE SWELL
EVENTS HERE HAVE BEEN UNDER MODELED...SO GOING REASONING IS THAT
THIS EVENT WILL BE UNDERDONE BY THE WNA AS WELL. INITIALIZATION
PROVING THAT CURRENTLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ALL DATA.

Image

BEST PART OF FETCH WILL BE END UP EAST OF OUR LOCAL WATERS...BUT
STILL STICKING TO THOUGHT THAT 4 METER 15 SECOND SWELLS WILL HIT
LOCAL WATERS...WITH GREATEST THREAT OF HIGHEST WAVES TO BE OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND POINTS FURTHER EAST. NEVERTHELESS...ALL
OTHER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COASTAL LOCATIONS COVERED IN OUR FA
WILL STILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT TO MAJOR SWELL EVENT. THE NATURE OF
THESE LARGE SWELLS WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT TO PENETRATE THE
MAYAGUEZ PORT...WHICH HAS A MUCH LOWER FREQUENCY OF EXPERIENCING
SWELL THAN POINTS CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN COAST. BOTTOM LINE IS
EXPECTING SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET OVER ALL ATLC WATERS AND MOST
EXPOSED PASSAGES...WITH THE CAPABILITY OF BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS
EXCEEDING 20 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN REEFS...SHOALS AND STEEP
COASTLINES.

PLEASE SEE MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT AND HEADLINE ON WFO SAN JUAN
HOMEPAGE FOR IN DEPTH COVERAGE. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL BE
ISSUED NEXT FEW SHIFTS.
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Re: Caribbeann - Centralamerica=Major Swell event for NE Carib

#3717 Postby Macrocane » Wed Feb 10, 2010 9:10 pm

:uarrow: That swell event will be interesting to watch, I hope it doesn't cause any damage.

Here in Central America the most significant cold front in more than 3 weeks has entered the region. Moderate northerly winds have been affecting us since this morning and they are at their peak tonight. Tomorrow I will post some observations.
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Re: Caribbeann - Centralamerica=Major Swell event for NE Carib

#3718 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 11, 2010 5:29 am

Good morning to all.Stay tuned for warnings about the big swell event starting tommorow.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
352 AM AST THU FEB 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WRN/CNTRL ATLC WHILE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES THE EAST CNTRL TROPICAL ATLC. CDFNT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA EARLY FRI THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA SAT. LARGE NORTH SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE ATLC COASTLINE ALL WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE SOME WX THIS AFTERNOON FOR A CHANGE.
MODELS SHOW PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND K INDICES
CLIMBING TO AROUND 30 ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GFS/NAM MODELS.
SUBSIDENCE CAP ALSO FCST TO WEAKEN/LIFT TO AROUND 700 MB WITH
MOISTURE LYR BECOMING DEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHRA.
ANTICIPATING ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE CAYEY
MOUNTAIN RANGE THE MOST FAVORED PLACE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS STEERING
WINDS BECOME MORE FROM THE WNW. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST AFTER SUNSET.

CDFNT WORKS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BUT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE SRN PORTION OF THIS FRONT IS VOID OF CLOUDS. NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW MUCH WEATHER WE ARE GOING TO SEE DUE TO
THE WEAK NATURE OF THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW A DECENT
THICKNESS PACKING MEANING THAT THERE IS STILL A DISCONTINUITY
THERE. NRLY WINDS MAY ACT TO ENHANCE SHRA ACTIVITY ALG THE ATLC
COAST TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FCST. LINGERING MOISTURE
AND PROXIMITY OF FRONTAL BDRY SUGGEST SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE FRI. THEN THINGS DRY OUT QUICKLY FRI NIGHT AS FRONT LIFTS
TO THE NORTH. REST OF THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY DRY AND
STABLE AS CNTRL ATLC RIDGE STRENGHTENS AND BLOCKS ANY FRONTS FROM
GETTING THIS FAR SOUTH.

AS MARINE MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED FOR SVRL DAYS LARGE LONG PERIOD
NORTH SWELLS OF BETWEEN 12-14 FT AT 14 SECS WILL ARRIVE INTO OUR
ATLC COASTLINE FRI AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND CREATING VERY LARGE BREAKING WAVE ACTION WITH VERY
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING. BIGGEST
CONCERN IS WITH THE FRI EVENING HIGH TIDE AT SAN JUAN HARBOR AS
PILING OF WATER OCCURS ALONG THE SURF ZONE FORCING WATER UP ONTO
BEACHES AND ADJACENT ROADS. SHALLOW-WATER WAVE CALCULATOR
INDICATES BREAKERS OF 20 FEET OR MORE AND WATER RISES 2-4 FEET.
COASTAL FLOOD PRONE AREAS ALG THE ATLC COASTLINE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR LATEST STATEMENTS AND TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS. A HIGH
SURF WARNING WILL ALSO BE REQUIRED TONIGHT. RESIDENTS AND
TOURISTS ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS WITH JUST VCSH. WINDS TURN
NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 12-14 FT WILL AFFECT ATLC COASTLINE FRI-FRI
NIGHT WITH 7-10 FT SEAS ACROSS CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. SCA WILL GO
INTO EFFECT FRI MORNING AND REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SUN.
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Re: Caribbeann - Centralamerica=Major Swell event for NE Carib

#3719 Postby Macrocane » Thu Feb 11, 2010 10:31 am

The SNET (El Salvador’s geological, oceanographic and meteorological survey) has released the climate bulletin for December 2009. The document has several pages but in summary it says that:

-97% of the stations reported above average precipitation.
- Some stations registered between 1000% and 3000 % of the average rainfall. Most of the rain fell on December 20 and 21.
- The station with the highest precipitation anomaly was San Miguel’s station (eastern El Salvador) that registered 106.7 mm (4.2 inches). The normal precipitation for December is 3.5 mm (0.14 inches).
- 16 stations registered above average maximum temperatures and 7 below normal maximum temperatures. The absolute maximum temperature of the month was 37.1 °C (98.8 °F) in San Miguel
- 4 stations registered below average minimum temps and 18 above average minimum temps. The lowest temperature of the month was 3.0 °C (37 °F) registered in Los Naranjos (western El Salvador) on December 25.


It’s important to mention that December is the second month of the dry season in El Salvador, and it's interesting how all of the months of the rainy season registered below average rainfall and the 2 first months of the dry season have registered above average rainfall. It’s also important to say that December is the 2nd coolest month of the year with January being the coldest that’s why some very low temperatures can be registered. The document is in Spanish and here is the link if you want to read it: http://www.snet.gob.sv/ver/meteorologia/clima/climatologico/
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Re: Caribbeann - Centralamerica=Major Swell event for NE Carib

#3720 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 11, 2010 10:38 am

Small Craft Advisory in effect

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1109 AM AST THU FEB 11 2010

...LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS THAT WILL START TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL PASSAGES ON FRIDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY.
VERY LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES FRIDAY
TO AT LEAST SATURDAY...MAKING FOR A VERY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS.

AMZ710-112315-
/O.CON.TJSJ.SC.Y.0017.100212T1000Z-100214T1000Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
1109 AM AST THU FEB 11 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO
6 AM AST SUNDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM
AST SUNDAY.

DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
AS LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS WILL START TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL PASSAGES ON FRIDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS AND
SEAS OF 7 FEET AND GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.
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