Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[txagwxman]

Amazing how much the NAM sucks. I miss the Eta...

Now the NAM is closer to the ECMWF --- bring on the snow for DFW tomorrow...hee hee.

[Portastorm]

I give up.

Bring on spring.

Field Goals with Lucy Party Watch for Austin is cancelled.

[TrekkerCC]

Im serious- at this point forget what NWS and news say...

NOTE: NWS QPF totals .5-.6 for Metro .1" liquid = 1" of snow!

Lol

Only if the snow-liquid ratio were to end up around 10:1, and it will likely be more like 7:1 or 8:1 (or lower) when everything is said and done. So with a snow-liquid ratio of 7:1 and with .50 of liquid would yield ~3-4 inches of snow. Quite reasonable, if the NAM and other models are correct.

[orangeblood]

Im serious- at this point forget what NWS and news say...

NOTE: NWS QPF totals .5-.6 for Metro .1" liquid = 1" of snow!

Lol

well ratios will probably will probably be a little lower than 10:1 but that's still over 4 inches. What should we expect, it's a goverment run organization.

[txagwxman]

I give up.

Bring on spring.

Field Goals with Lucy Party Watch for Austin is cancelled.

U give up too early...models are still crap this far out...Austin not completely out of the woods, just need a few degrees more cooling aloft thu evening.

[utweather]

>>>>>>>>>>>
I give up.

Bring on spring.

Field Goals with Lucy Party Watch for Austin is cancelled.
<<<<<<<<<<

I don't know I checked one more time this morning, and central travis county westward looks good for tonight. nbc didn't run there models past that, but like I said last night hill country and killeen/temple north looks really good, austin and just south a 30 miles or so and east 50 or so plus the air temp is going to be trying awfully hard to melt our flakes.

[iorange55]

I guess we sit and wait for the NWS to explain how the 12z Nam run is actually warmer.

[Portastorm]

The Jim Spencer model ... yeah ... I know all about that one. It's as trusty as the GFS. Don't get your hopes up, utweather, that's all I have to say about that.

txagwxman ... I know my only hope is the cold-core upper low moving overhead Thursday night. Slim hope at best. Good luck to everyone else. Dang Lucy got me again.

[msstateguy83]

txagwxman what would you say up near the red river near my area of wichita falls as far as possible amounts?

[txagwxman]

txagwxman what would you say up near the red river near my area of wichita falls as far as possible amounts?

Definitely some...ECMWF has .25"-.375" of liquid.

[utweather]

>>>>>>>>>>>
The Jim Spencer model ... yeah ... I know all about that one. It's as trusty as the GFS. Don't get your hopes up, utweather, that's all I have to say about that.
<<<<<<<<<<<

Precip wise from last spring to current I think his model is better than then nws(gfs). Its the temps I haven't tracked and so I'm not sure about. Come on cold air dry air, stick around a while:-)

Usually all we get is sleet and freezing rain, so this setup is going to be interesting, I'll go for heavy wet snow that melts 1/2 a day after it stops even if it accumaltes alot for a few hours.

Also, yeah you guys in Dallas are getting no love for the nws up there, but you should get a dusting at least not sure how much precip is up there. Maybe too light???

This is all speculation of course..

***
edit: Model is rather good 24-36 hrs ahead of said event

[txagwxman]

KSAT 101511Z 07007KT 10SM -PLRA BKN080 OVC250 03/M05 A3035 RMK AO2 RAB11PLB11 P0000

[orangeblood]

Just looking over the NAM meteogram for dfw - it's about 5-6 degrees colder with temps staying below freezing during the entire event. I would expect a different tone out of Fort Worth at the 10 am update

[iorange55]

Also, yeah you guys in Dallas are getting no love for the nws up there, but you should get a dusting at least not sure how much precip is up there. Maybe too light???

This is all speculation of course..

No the precip is there. They are saying it'll be two warm, but I don't know. I just don't get it cause the models are starting to look more and more like they were a couple of days ago. So I don't get how they're getting warmer. This storm has me confused.

[Portastorm]

KSAT 101511Z 07007KT 10SM -PLRA BKN080 OVC250 03/M05 A3035 RMK AO2 RAB11PLB11 P0000

Yep, NWS receiving reports now of sleet falling in San Antonio in the northern and northwestern parts of town.

[iorange55]

KSAT 101511Z 07007KT 10SM -PLRA BKN080 OVC250 03/M05 A3035 RMK AO2 RAB11PLB11 P0000

Yep, NWS receiving reports now of sleet falling in San Antonio in the northern and northwestern parts of town.

But Dallas, and Austin are going to get all rain

[utweather]

>>>>>>>>
Yep, NWS receiving reports now of sleet falling in San Antonio in the northern and northwestern parts of town.
<<<<<<<<

Oh yeah! Now thats what I'm talking about:-)

[Portastorm]

Perhaps my anti-jinx post earlier worked?! We shall see.

More reports coming in now of sleet in San Antonio.

[ColdFusion]

Yep, NWS receiving reports now of sleet falling in San Antonio in the northern and northwestern parts of town.

That was the forecast though wasnt it?

[msstateguy83]

the radar returns this am speak VOLUMES about what is yet to come... not all of it
might not be reaching the ground yet but look @ regional radar iam seeing returns
from gage,ok to near abilene,tx and also points west, south & as was just stated reports
of sleet now near san antonio...


EDIT: SLEET NOW BEING REPORTED IN 3 OUT OF THE 4 REPORTING STATIONS IN THE SA
METRO AREA...