Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Ntxw]

How much precip for the dfw area.

You're talking a good 3-6 inches. 3 inches areawide. Locally someone could get 6+. It will depend on where the heaviest precip develops.

[msstateguy83]

MAJOR WINTER STORM... from wichita falls over to i-35 and down basically from what i can see imo correct me if iam wrong iam
looking over this quickly as i can just finishing dinner so even with my knowledge of the models could be wrong just trying to get
my thoughts on here rapidly to share w/everyone but being less then 24 hrs out my confidence of a major winter storm on a
1-10 scale is a 9.5......

EDIT: still some real ?s as to how much of that is ANY rain V.S. snow but just by looking at precip there @ 30 hrs out... you
*COULD* be looking at 6+ inches along the redriver i would even argue possibly plus 8 inches in some areas....

[iorange55]

Looking like to me 3-6 inches like Ntxw said. But there will be local amounts higher than that maybe up to 8 inches. But 3-6 should be the average.

[Dustan78]

I know this has been asked a bunch, but what time do you guys see this starting around the fort worth area?

[katheria]

I know this has been asked a bunch, but what time do you guys see this starting around the fort worth area?

daybreak....6am or so....

[BrokenGlass]

I'm going to bed, and I expect to wake up tomorrow like so many times in my childhood...to brown grass, wet streets, and 34 degrees. Nighty night, ya'll.

[srainhoutx]

Going to be a close call in SE TX...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _036.shtml

[Ntxw]

I'm going to bed, and I expect to wake up tomorrow like so many times in my childhood...to brown grass, wet streets, and 34 degrees. Nighty night, ya'll.

You probably will see that lol. The accumulating snow isn't expected until well after daybreak.

[msstateguy83]

i would say by the am drive... but no problems till later in the day the evening rush *depending on how rapidly will cool with precip* could be a big big prob... but friday morning i see being a major mess, likely alot of closings, such.

[orangeblood]

This run looks a little colder as well. Even at low end snow ratios of 6:1, that would be a minimum of 3 inches across a large portion of north texas. Winter Storm warnings will probably go up at the 10pm update. Precip looks to start breaking out a little earlier around sunrise.

[iorange55]

Precip total through 36 hrs






Lot of precip.

[Ntxw]

This run looks a little colder as well. Even at low end snow ratios of 6:1, that would be a minimum of 3 inches across a large portion of north texas. Winter Storm warnings will probably go up at the 10pm update. Precip looks to start breaking out a little earlier around sunrise.

I think for North Texas it would be closer to 7:1 or 8:1. We have very dry air in place even with the stream of moisture coming above our heads from the pacific.

[msstateguy83]

i would add iam seriously more concerned now about the northern counties in n.tx say wichita, clay, montague, cooke, grayson counties. from w.falls over to gainesville now looks to have a serious impact from this storm as well.
basically ANYONE from the ok/tx line from wichita falls to gainesville (poss as far e as sherman) southward to just s of interstate 20 is likely to have a HIGH IMPACT from this storm... widespread 4-6" amounts with areas i think now just north of dfw at or above 8 inches!

EDIT: mark my words... IMO this will go down as just SLIGHTLY less powerful then the 09 christmas eve blizzard in oklahoma, nw tx... this is gonna be HUGE...

[katheria]

msstateguy83,, make us a new map

hehe...

[gboudx]

msstateguy83,, make us a new map

hehe...

Make sure that for the area around Lake Ray Hubbard you put a trace with mostly rain.

[cheezyWXguy]

i would add iam seriously more concerned now about the northern counties in n.tx say wichita, clay, montague, cooke, grayson counties. from w.falls over to gainesville now looks to have a serious impact from this storm as well.
basically ANYONE from the ok/tx line from wichita falls to gainesville (poss as far e as sherman) southward to just s of interstate 20 is likely to have a HIGH IMPACT from this storm... widespread 4-6" amounts with areas i think now just north of dfw at or above 8 inches!

EDIT: mark my words... IMO this will go down as just SLIGHTLY less powerful then the 09 christmas eve blizzard in oklahoma, nw tx... this is gonna be HUGE...

If what you say is true, DFW will likely be doubling its amounts from the Christmas Eve storm. And that was 3 inches at my place. Do you think any of this 4-8" in dfw will actually stick to the roads? Im hoping for a school closing on friday haha

[txagwxman]

Based on latest soundings...it will be a cold rain south of TPL/CLL/LFK line...no snow Houston...unless a miracle occurs at last second underneath the cold - core low...i give that slim chance...takes a lot of latent heat energy to refreeze water aloft, and I don't see enough cold air advection to do the trick. At least we got some sleet today with temperatures near 50F at the surface---probably the warmest on record for sleet.

[katheria]

msstateguy83,, make us a new map

hehe...

Make sure that for the area around Lake Ray Hubbard you put a trace with mostly rain.

LOL while your at it, go ahead and draw a umbrella over our heads here from garland to forney...

[orangeblood]

I believe this is a much more high impact event for North Texas than usual considering how cold ground temperatures have been. The winter storms North Texas usually receive are preceded by fairly warm weather. The combination of cold ground temps and high precip rates, roads should become snow packed fairly quickly. And for the NWS to believe the roads will only stay slushy makes no sense.

[Ntxw]

I don't think you eastplexers can escape this one!

I believe this is a much more high impact event for North Texas than usual considering how cold ground temperatures have been. The winter storms North Texas usually receive are preceded by fairly warm weather. The combination of cold ground temps and high precip rates, roads should become snow packed fairly quickly. And for the NWS to believe the roads will only stay slushy makes no sense.

I think it will depend on temperatures. If they sit around 30-31 we'll have a lot more problems when it's snowing than we think. If it's from 32 or just above, then less of an issue on the roads. Regardless, from past experience, school closings (not involved with ice) for snow, it just has to snow heavily at the right times (generally from 6am to 8am). In 2007 there was a trace amount of snow in around rush hour and most schools closed (except Dallas isd lol). It stopped right after 8 am or so and was gone by midmorning. Remember here in the south it just has to look bad for there to be havoc .