Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
i just put this on here from oun to give you an idea if they are thinking this with 'high precip rates' reducing vis to a mi or less
that should tell anyone it COULD pile up on the roads quicky... if you get a heavy burst of snow or snowing heavy a peroid of
time or not it can pile up on the roads no matter what your ground temp... so the argument that was stated that fws said i
dont understand either b/c most likely this will become a serious road problem by late tomorrow..
000
FXUS64 KOUN 110020
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010
.AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 12 HRS IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM SOUTH
OF ARIZONA. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THURSDAY AS DEEPER
MOISTURE IS LIFTED NORTH. TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL BRING BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP TO SPS/LAW. PRECIP MAY START AS RAIN BUT SHOULD CHANGE
TO SNOW AS PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES. RATES MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH
FOR VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON (LAW/SPS).
that should tell anyone it COULD pile up on the roads quicky... if you get a heavy burst of snow or snowing heavy a peroid of
time or not it can pile up on the roads no matter what your ground temp... so the argument that was stated that fws said i
dont understand either b/c most likely this will become a serious road problem by late tomorrow..
000
FXUS64 KOUN 110020
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010
.AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 12 HRS IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM SOUTH
OF ARIZONA. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THURSDAY AS DEEPER
MOISTURE IS LIFTED NORTH. TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL BRING BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP TO SPS/LAW. PRECIP MAY START AS RAIN BUT SHOULD CHANGE
TO SNOW AS PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES. RATES MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH
FOR VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON (LAW/SPS).
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- TrekkerCC
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Just a note: NAM can often overdo forecast precipitation amounts. So take the NAM QPF forecasts with a grain of salt. Do some sanity checking with the 00z GFS to see if GFS is forecasting approximately the same amount as the NAM is.
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This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Hopefully the 0z NAM starts a new trend and the 850mb 0c line poops about 50 miles further south across Central Texas.
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"I believe this is a much more high impact event for North Texas than usual considering how cold ground temperatures have been. The winter storms North Texas usually receive are preceded by fairly warm weather. The combination of cold ground temps and high precip rates, roads should become snow packed fairly quickly. And for the NWS to believe the roads will only stay slushy makes no sense."
Good point. Exhibit A was the x-mas eve storm that glazed roads after temps were 70+ the day before. If we drop below freezing tomorrow by 5:00, and the amounts on here come to fruition, we're looking at a very quiet metroplex come Friday a.m. We're expecting a quarter of a million visitors this weekend for the NBA game (shocked me too). Could be a frustrating travel day tomorrow for those folks.
Good point. Exhibit A was the x-mas eve storm that glazed roads after temps were 70+ the day before. If we drop below freezing tomorrow by 5:00, and the amounts on here come to fruition, we're looking at a very quiet metroplex come Friday a.m. We're expecting a quarter of a million visitors this weekend for the NBA game (shocked me too). Could be a frustrating travel day tomorrow for those folks.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
orangeblood wrote:I believe this is a much more high impact event for North Texas than usual considering how cold ground temperatures have been. The winter storms North Texas usually receive are preceded by fairly warm weather. The combination of cold ground temps and high precip rates, roads should become snow packed fairly quickly. And for the NWS to believe the roads will only stay slushy makes no sense.
Maybe...but 37F temp over 23F dewpoint right now wetbulbs to about 32-33F...with sun angle, there shouldn't be problems on the roads, maybe bridges. Going to be grassy surfaces, roofs and bridges tomorrow in Dallas. I would expect 3-4" maybe 5" in spots...I think most of the moisture will be south of Dallas...
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
msstateguy83 wrote:i just put this on here from oun to give you an idea if they are thinking this with 'high precip rates' reducing vis to a mi or less
that should tell anyone it COULD pile up on the roads quicky... if you get a heavy burst of snow or snowing heavy a peroid of
time or not it can pile up on the roads no matter what your ground temp... so the argument that was stated that fws said i
dont understand either b/c most likely this will become a serious road problem by late tomorrow..
000
FXUS64 KOUN 110020
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010
.AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 12 HRS IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM SOUTH
OF ARIZONA. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THURSDAY AS DEEPER
MOISTURE IS LIFTED NORTH. TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL BRING BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP TO SPS/LAW. PRECIP MAY START AS RAIN BUT SHOULD CHANGE
TO SNOW AS PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES. RATES MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH
FOR VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON (LAW/SPS).
You're right msstateguy83: Even with temperatures hovering around freezing or slightly above, a heavy burst of snow is going to accumulate no matter what. I've seen this situation happen all the time in Colorado. To not have a winter storm warning up, warning people of the situation that is imminent, seems inexcusable to me.
Last edited by orangeblood on Wed Feb 10, 2010 9:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Last edited by msstateguy83 on Wed Feb 10, 2010 9:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
msstateguy83 wrote:i just put this on here from oun to give you an idea if they are thinking this with 'high precip rates' reducing vis to a mi or less
that should tell anyone it COULD pile up on the roads quicky... if you get a heavy burst of snow or snowing heavy a peroid of
time or not it can pile up on the roads no matter what your ground temp... so the argument that was stated that fws said i
dont understand either b/c most likely this will become a serious road problem by late tomorrow..
000
FXUS64 KOUN 110020
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010
.AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 12 HRS IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM SOUTH
OF ARIZONA. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THURSDAY AS DEEPER
MOISTURE IS LIFTED NORTH. TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL BRING BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP TO SPS/LAW. PRECIP MAY START AS RAIN BUT SHOULD CHANGE
TO SNOW AS PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES. RATES MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH
FOR VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON (LAW/SPS).
We had heavy burst of snow in Houston last December with temps in the 34F range, and it didn't pile up at all on the roads...I think the high sun angle will due the trick tomorrow and keep DFW above freezing, but I could be wrong. We will see.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
txagwxman wrote:msstateguy83 wrote:i just put this on here from oun to give you an idea if they are thinking this with 'high precip rates' reducing vis to a mi or less
that should tell anyone it COULD pile up on the roads quicky... if you get a heavy burst of snow or snowing heavy a peroid of
time or not it can pile up on the roads no matter what your ground temp... so the argument that was stated that fws said i
dont understand either b/c most likely this will become a serious road problem by late tomorrow..
000
FXUS64 KOUN 110020
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010
.AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 12 HRS IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM SOUTH
OF ARIZONA. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THURSDAY AS DEEPER
MOISTURE IS LIFTED NORTH. TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL BRING BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP TO SPS/LAW. PRECIP MAY START AS RAIN BUT SHOULD CHANGE
TO SNOW AS PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES. RATES MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH
FOR VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON (LAW/SPS).
We had heavy burst of snow in Houston last December with temps in the 34F range, and it didn't pile up at all on the roads...I think the high sun angle will due the trick tomorrow and keep DFW above freezing, but I could be wrong. We will see.
I think that situation was extremely different - The ground temps weren't nearly as cold as they are now and I believe that storm was a cold core upper level low. But like you said, we shall see!!
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txagwxman has a good point w/the sun angle very true.. no doubt about it this could be close but i would rather be wrong, warn people ahead of time then not say nothing about it & it happen just my style on the issue, we all have diffrent opinions and there is certainly nothing wrong with that! 

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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
txagwxman wrote:orangeblood wrote:I believe this is a much more high impact event for North Texas than usual considering how cold ground temperatures have been. The winter storms North Texas usually receive are preceded by fairly warm weather. The combination of cold ground temps and high precip rates, roads should become snow packed fairly quickly. And for the NWS to believe the roads will only stay slushy makes no sense.
Maybe...but 37F temp over 23F dewpoint right now wetbulbs to about 32-33F...with sun angle, there shouldn't be problems on the roads, maybe bridges. Going to be grassy surfaces, roofs and bridges tomorrow in Dallas. I would expect 3-4" maybe 5" in spots...I think most of the moisture will be south of Dallas...
The sun angle argument is rubbish, for the most part. Thick cloud cover and precip. will nullify any difference between the sun angle in early Jan and early Feb. As for the difference, the sun angle during the highest part of the day is only 43 degrees at 32N on Feb. 10th versus 36 1/2 degrees on January 10th. Those numbers are for when the sun is at its absolute peak during the day. The difference in solar radiation intensity at the time of maximum sun angle between the two dates is only about 15%. I've seen snow-packed roads in Central Texas in April and in North Texas in March
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Dan Henry from Fox 4 says the latest data is coming in and making him change his forecast a bit 

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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
in think we can say either way.....
traffic is gonna be a nightmare....drivers freak out in heavy rain, sleet/ice/snow....ohh boy...
have to say this is the only time im happy since ive been unemployed LOL no driving for me....
traffic is gonna be a nightmare....drivers freak out in heavy rain, sleet/ice/snow....ohh boy...
have to say this is the only time im happy since ive been unemployed LOL no driving for me....
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just a guess.......take everything i say with a grain of salt.......check your local NWS for forecast information
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
The key to pin pointing the heaviest snow accumulations is figuring out where the combination of maximum precip and sufficient cold profile sets up. That's going to be the trickiest part to this forecast and right now this area looks like it setting up directly through the densest population area of North Texas.
Last edited by orangeblood on Wed Feb 10, 2010 10:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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msstateguy83 wrote:i would add iam seriously more concerned now about the northern counties in n.tx say wichita, clay, montague, cooke, grayson counties. from w.falls over to gainesville now looks to have a serious impact from this storm as well.
basically ANYONE from the ok/tx line from wichita falls to gainesville (poss as far e as sherman) southward to just s of interstate 20 is likely to have a HIGH IMPACT from this storm... widespread 4-6" amounts with areas i think now just north of dfw at or above 8 inches!
EDIT: mark my words... IMO this will go down as just SLIGHTLY less powerful then the 09 christmas eve blizzard in oklahoma, nw tx... this is gonna be HUGE...
While I think this will be a pretty big event by Texas standards, I do not know if I would categorize it as "HUGE" or rivaling the Oklahoma blizzard just yet. As txagwxman has noted, the relatively warm surface temperatures should probably keep the accumulations from reaching their peak. While 8+ inch amounts are not entirely impossible, I would bet that those kind of totals will be few and far between. This looks more like a widespread 2-5" snowstorm to me, with a few pockets of heavier accumulations here and there. The snow should also be of the wet, low ratio variety, which is quite different from the high ratio, powdery snow Oklahoma experienced during the big December blizzard (when surface temperatures were in the lower 20s), so the dangers of significant blowing and drifting will likely be less of a concern.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Wed Feb 10, 2010 10:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Thermal profiles have come in colder with the latest NAM. Lets see what it does with those snow ratios!
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Let's see what the Globals say. Even some 'short range' guidance can offer some "tips"... 

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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
orangeblood wrote:msstateguy83 wrote:i just put this on here from oun to give you an idea if they are thinking this with 'high precip rates' reducing vis to a mi or less
that should tell anyone it COULD pile up on the roads quicky... if you get a heavy burst of snow or snowing heavy a peroid of
time or not it can pile up on the roads no matter what your ground temp... so the argument that was stated that fws said i
dont understand either b/c most likely this will become a serious road problem by late tomorrow..
000
FXUS64 KOUN 110020
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010
.AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 12 HRS IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM SOUTH
OF ARIZONA. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THURSDAY AS DEEPER
MOISTURE IS LIFTED NORTH. TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL BRING BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP TO SPS/LAW. PRECIP MAY START AS RAIN BUT SHOULD CHANGE
TO SNOW AS PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES. RATES MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH
FOR VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON (LAW/SPS).
You're right msstateguy83: Even with temperatures hovering around freezing or slightly above, a heavy burst of snow is going to accumulate no matter what. I've seen this situation happen all the time in Colorado. To not have a winter storm warning up, warning people of the situation that is imminent, seems inexcusable to me.
My guess is that the parameters they must meet to put out a warning aren't being met. Email them and ask why they aren't doing it. They usually answer emails and all NWS offices websites have a way you can contact them.
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