SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012

[srainhoutx]

HGX morning Update...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
944 AM CST THU FEB 11 2010

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. 12Z NAM COMING
IN A BIT COLDER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES
SUGGEST A RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING
AROUND 09Z. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
SIX NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM 03Z THROUGH 12Z. OVER THE REST OF
THE CWA...RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LATE TODAY...JET DYNAMICS INCREASE AS SE TEXAS WILL LIE IN A LEFT
FRONT QUAD. THIS WILL ENHANCE LIFT. 850 MB CONVERGENCE PEAKS
BETWEEN 00-03Z OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND AROUND 06Z OVER THE
NORTHEAST ZONES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER IN THE ZONES BUT SOME
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT 500 MB TROUGH COULD CREATE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SPARKS OF LIGHTNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION ON FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH
A STRONG TEMP INVERSION...SO FRIDAY IS LOOKING RATHER CLOUDY AND
COOL. NEW ZONES OUT BY 10 AM.

THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA WILL RECEIVE A COLD RAIN FOR THE
NEXT 12-18 HOURS. THE THERMAL PROFILE DOES NOT SUPPORT SNOW BUT
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR RAIN AND SLEET AROUND SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING. 43

[PTrackerLA]

NWS still insisting precip stays all rain even though sleet has already been reported in Lafayette. It's going to be REALLY close.

[crazycajuncane]

NWS still insisting precip stays all rain even though sleet has already been reported in Lafayette. It's going to be REALLY close.

I have a big feeling they don't want to disappoint us like last time...

accuweather is my fav right now!

Friday, Feb 12
High: 44 °F RealFeel®: 36 °F
Morning snow of varying intensity, accumulating a coating to an inch; cloudy and breezy

That's forecast for Lafayette.... I sure the heck hope so!

I hope we buck the local forecast trend!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

It has been sleeting here since before 8am. Ennough to have accumulated in the valleys of the roof on my house. Now its very light with light rain mixed with temp at 38. They are still calling for highs in the mid to upper 40's. Just don't see it as it looks like heavier precip is going to start moving in soon from yall's area.

[southerngale]

We had sleet over here last night, but our forecast is just rain as well. It's gone back and forth between snow/sleet and rain and has been an all rain forecast since about 6am this morning. It's pretty depressing to have nothing but a cold rain while watching places a few hours north of here enjoy a winter wonderland. I'm happy for them... just want our precip to be snow as well. It's currently 37° and seems to be dropping, not rising. I'm doubting a high in the lower 40s today.

*Edit - temp dropped to 36° while I was typing that post.

[KatDaddy]

Seeing floating snowflakes on the 26th floor in downtown Houston.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well it is pretty much all rain now with temp at 40. Still some sleet mixed in. Whats interesting to watch is the snow line appears to be moving steadily SE from the Shreveport area. Looks to be just north of Alexandria now.

[weunice]

Here is what LIX is saying right now (and has been for about 24 hours). That puts some snow in Lafayette.

[southerngale]

35° and rain. So frustrating!



So close, yet so far away. No readings below freezing... but colder than forecast. We were supposed to have a high in the low to mid-40s.

Current as of 2:30pm and the temps have been slowly dropping today.

45.7 °F Oil Rig : 30 mi SE High Island, TX
42.0 °F Oil Rig 30 miles SE of Sabine Pass : 30 SE Sabine Pass, TX
50.0 °F GULF1 Oil Rig : 90 mi SE Galveston, TX
36.5 °F Anahuac ES : Anahuac, TX
37.1 °F Central HS : Beaumont, TX
35.3 °F Curtis ES : Beaumont, TX
35.3 °F Field ES : Beaumont, TX
35.2 °F Homer Drive ES : Beaumont, TX
35.7 °F KFDM-TV : Beaumont, TX
35.7 °F Monsignor Kelly High School : Beaumont, TX
36.3 °F Odom Academy : Beaumont, TX
35.9 °F Richard Milburn Academy : Beaumont, TX
36.1 °F Roy Guess ES : Beaumont, TX
38.1 °F St. Anne Catholic School : Beaumont, TX
35.5 °F St. Anthony Cathedral School : Beaumont, TX
36.0 °F Bridge City MS : Bridge City, TX
34.5 °F Buna ES : Buna, TX
32.2 °F Colmesneil ISD : Colmesneil, TX
36.5 °F Hamshire-Fannett MS : Fannett, TX
33.4 °F Fred ES : Fred, TX
36.4 °F High Island ISD : High Island, TX
32.2 °F Rowe Intermediate : Jasper, TX
35.7 °F Kirbyville ES : Kirbyville, TX
34.5 °F Kountze ES : Kountze, TX
34.9 °F Sam Houston HS : Lake Charles, LA
34.5 °F Lumberton Intermediate : Lumberton, TX
35.5 °F Helena Park ES : Nederland, TX
36.1 °F Hillcrest ES : Nederland, TX
34.6 °F Newton ES : Newton, TX
34.2 °F Anderson ES : Orange, TX
34.5 °F Deweyville HS : Orange, TX
35.0 °F Little Cypress-Mauriceville HS : Orange, TX
35.4 °F St. Mary Catholic School : Orange, TX
36.2 °F West Orange-Stark MS : Orange, TX
37.7 °F Lamar State College : Port Arthur, TX
36.5 °F Sabine Pass School : Sabine Pass, TX
34.3 °F West Hardin CCISD : Saratoga, TX
35.2 °F Laura Reeves ES : Silsbee, TX
35.2 °F Sour Lake ES : Sour Lake, TX
33.8 °F Spurger ISD : Spurger, TX
36.6 °F Pine Forest ES : Vidor, TX
36.0 °F Vidor JHS : Vidor, TX
34.2 °F Warren ES : Warren, TX
37.3 °F East Chambers Media Center : Winnie, TX
33.5 °F Woodville MS : Woodville, TX
39.2 °F Sea Rim State Park - NDBC : Sabine Pass, TX

[Stormcenter]

I Think they are in denial.

NWS still insisting precip stays all rain even though sleet has already been reported in Lafayette. It's going to be REALLY close.

[srainhoutx]

I know it's the 18Z NAM, but there may be a few surprises early tomorrow morning for SE TX/SW LA folks.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Wonder what the NWS is going to do with our current winter storm watch here in Gonzales/Baton Rouge? They have upgraded to winter storm warnings north and east of us all the way to Pensacola. They are still forecasting a 50% chance of rain mixed with some sleet and a high of 46/47. It has been sleeting with rain mixed in at times on and off all day sometimes hard enough to start accumulating on colder surfaces. Right now it is 39 with a mix of rain and sleet. Dont think it will get any warmer. BTW do they leave winter storm watches in effect or always downgrade to advisories or upgrade to warnings?

[PTrackerLA]

We finally have rain mixed with sleet added into the forecast!

I saw some hours ago .

[TigerCraig]

Baton Rouge just went from 1-3 inches tonight with another 1 inch tomorrow... TO: " Little or no snow accumulation expected. " for all periods

[southerngale]

Snow is back in my forecast. I've never seen snow/sleet come and go out of my forecast this much, ever. Back and forth, back and forth, back and forth. Of course whether it actually happens is another thing altogether.

This afternoon: 100% Rain
Tonight: 100% Rain/Sleet
Friday: 50% Chance Rain/Snow

A chance of rain and snow before noon, with little or no snow accumulation expected.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Baton Rouge just went from 1-3 inches tonight with another 1 inch tomorrow... TO: " Little or no snow accumulation expected. " for all periods

Well to answer my earlier question they went ahead and upgraded us to a winter storm warning, BUT like you said TigerCraig they say little to no accumulations. What is going on here? Also they put New Orleans and Houma under winter weather advisories. Why would they do all this if they aren't expecting any accumulating precip? Any takers? This just gets more confusing by the hour.

[southerngale]

Very good discussion by NWS LCH explaining the challenges in the forecast and why snow/sleet was brought back into the forecast further south.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
351 PM CST THU FEB 11 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ANTICIPATED MAJOR WINTER STORM IS UNDERWAY AS LIGHT TO SOMETIMES
MODERATE RAIN COVERS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH SPORADIC REPORTS OF SLEET MIXED WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING TO
COME INTO THE OFFICE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET
BEFORE THE FUN STARTS.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE LOWER TX COAST WHILE
WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT SHORTWAVE CROSSING CNTL TX. SFC LOW IS
PROGGED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS THE CNTL/NRN GULF TO A LOCATION OFF
SERN LA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY DAWN...WHILE THE AREA IS FORECAST TO LIE IN RRQ
OF UPPER JET OVERNIGHT. COMBO OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD PROVIDE A
BURST OF ENHANCED LIFT OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z-12Z BEFORE THE
SYSTEMS ALL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE PRECIP CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW THIS
EVENING OVER THE NERN ZONES...AND BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE NRN
1/2 OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING HIGHEST ACCUMULATION OVER THE
NERN ZONES WHERE LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED...AND THUS AM CONTINUING
THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THESE AREAS. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA EITHER. MAIN CHANGE TO THE WEATHER
GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON INVOLVES THE TIER OF PARISHES/COUNTIES ALONG
I-10 CORRIDOR FROM THE ATCHAFALAYA TO VIDOR AND THEN HARDIN COUNTY
WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLEET HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARM LAYER
ABOVE THE SFC WHILE SFC TEMPS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING OVERNIGHT. NOT TOTALLY CONVINCED WE`LL SEE ANY FROZEN
PRECIP TONIGHT IN THIS AREA BUT AM NOT CONVINCED WE`RE NOT GOING
TO SEE IT EITHER...THEREFORE HAVE ELECTED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION AND INTRODUCE THE SLEET MENTION. WOULD EXPECT THAT THE
CITY OF BEAUMONT WOULD ALSO SEE SOME OF THIS BUT CANNOT INCLUDE IN
THE ZONES ATTM DUE TO THE GEOGRAPHY OF JEFFERSON COUNTY. ONLY
CHANGE TO THE WARNING AND ADVISORY ATTM IS TO EXTEND IT INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY LATER ENDING TO THE WINTER WEATHER
INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS/ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

THE PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
STORM SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. BEYOND THIS EVENT...EXPECT
DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS NWRLY FLOW TAKES OVER
ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THE AREA. CUTOFF LOW DROPPING
THROUGH THE PLAINS IS PROGGED TO PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY USHERING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
THEN PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

[srainhoutx]

I agree SG. Very informative and explains the forecasting challenge.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

They haven't posted the afd here yet, so many questions still remain. I guess I can take some pieces of that discussion and move it east to get a few answers.

[TigerCraig]

Wunderground has this for BR (just updated)

Cloudy...snow...light rain likely and chance of light sleet in the morning...then chance of snow and slight chance of light rain in the afternoon. Snow and sleet accumulation up to 2 inches. Total snow accumulation up to 4 inches. Highs in the lower 40s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.