Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Brent]

I wonder if Im the only one who thinks the MET ( or pretend met) whatever he is, on our one and only LOCAL channel in Pensacola...is a couple fries short of a happy meal? I just heard him say most of the area now was having RAIN mixed with a LITTLE sleet. Well, Im having SLeet...and NO Rain. Sorry dude...it doesn't fly. He still doesn't think there will be any accumulating snow. Who knows, maybe he's right..*shrug*

IMO it could go either way. I'm not completely sold there will be accumulation on the immediate coast but it's possible if everything goes right. It could be no accumulation or it could be a couple of inches.

[weunice]

We got sleet most of the day and it just turned back into rain .. our forecast depends on the mood of the person making it and whether or not they are generally an optimist or a pessimist.

I am rooting for the optimists tonight

[SunnyThoughts]

Brent, he has some sort of inhouse Model he uses. He was showing the exact time that the snow would dip down and give a few flurries then lift back up into Alabama, complete with exact times lol

[DEEDEE911]

Its been sleeting in south mississippi all day

[Agua]

Based on experience and common sense, I'll be surprised if there's anything more than a dusting on the top of the car and shrubbery down here in the morning. 2+ inches just isn't going to happen.

[Stormcenter]

It's old "I'll believe it when I see it" thing.

I have to agree with you if I were living anywhere along the Gulf coast.
Though this system does look pretty potent. IMO

Based on experience and common sense, I'll be surprised if there's anything more than a dusting on the top of the car and shrubbery down here in the morning. 2+ inches just isn't going to happen.

[Brent]

Based on experience and common sense, I'll be surprised if there's anything more than a dusting on the top of the car and shrubbery down here in the morning. 2+ inches just isn't going to happen.

That would be epic, again I'm not sold, but if any storm was going to do it it's this one. This is the biggest storm I've seen since 93.

[Ivanhater]

Just got home from class, but here is the 18z Nam..that freezing line keeps getting further off the coast! Now that is some heavy snow

[SunnyThoughts]

Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
413 PM CST THU FEB 11 2010

ALZ052-061>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-MSZ075-076-078-079-
120000-
WASHINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-PERRY-GREENE-
STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHATOM...MILLRY...MOBILE...PRICHARD...
SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...
FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...
PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...
ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...
CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...
SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...
NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
413 PM CST THU FEB 11 2010

.NOW...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SLEET MIXED WITH RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE...STRETCHING INLAND TO THE
I-10 CORRIDOR...MOVING EASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

[Dionne]

My location is in the 5-9" zone. Earlier this morning around sunrise we were in the 4-6" range. We have had flurries on and off all day. The cloud cover has increased throughout the day. Wind is calm. Ambient at my little weather station is currently 39.6F and falling fast.....it just dropped to 39.4F.

We have planned for a snow storm. We're on a Dept of Labor renovation under a deadline......we must work this weekend. We have arranged for 4 wheel drive vehicles to pick up workers tomorrow morning if necessary. A power failure will change everything. We have portable generators......but not enough to pull the load we need. Not to mention we need a minimum of 45F inside 22,000 sq/ft.

This is going to be interesting. From what I'm seeing on the radar and watching the temp fall.......observing the increase in clouds out of a dark southwest. I think we're gonna get slammed. This is just my personal observation from my location.

I hope I'm right. I really like snow events. After all I grew up in Alaska.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Could someone with more winter weather knowledge help me with a question. I live about 15 miles south of downtown Baton Rouge. For tomorrow the NWS forecast for Baton Rouge is a high of 41 with an 80% chance of snow with accum. of 1-2 inches. For us it is the same temp with rain and sleet mix with no accum. What is going on for such different forecast?

[Sabanic]

Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
413 PM CST THU FEB 11 2010

.NOW...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SLEET MIXED WITH RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE...STRETCHING INLAND TO THE
I-10 CORRIDOR...MOVING EASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

I would guess the good stuff will not begin until later tonight into the early AM as the temps drop some

[MGC]

All rain now in Pass Christian. Sleet has accumulated on the valleys of roofs though. Sure hope the low really bombs tonight and pulls down some cold air and we get some more white stuff.......MGC

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Same over here. We had mostly all sleet for much of the morning and now it is colder but we have all rain.

[Ivanhater]

Ok now it is time for the radar period..what is the best radar to use that shows the snow sleet and rain? A nice quality one for us to use tonightb

[Dean4Storms]

FXUS64 KMOB 112230
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
430 PM CST THU FEB 11 2010

...WINTER STORM EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER WESTERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SURFACE
LOW BEGINNING TO DEEPEN JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THIS PRECIP HAS BEEN IN THE FORM OF
SLEET AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY WITH WET BULBS
WELL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S SO NO ACCUMULATION ISSUES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SLEET
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

HEAVIER PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS EAST AND THE SFC LOW BECOMES BETTER
ORGANIZED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY DROPPING TO AT OR BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA...SO AS THE MORE INTENSE PRECIP
MAKES ITS WAY IN...WE SHOULD SEE A QUICK CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE
INTERIOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH TOWARD INTERSTATE
10...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE OF A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW WITH THE
RAIN. EVEN HEAVIER PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED FROM JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC AND 850 MB LOWS TRACK TO
THE SOUTH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP LAYER OMEGA AND
DYNAMICAL COOLING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE 850 MB LOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMP PROFILES TO QUICKLY COOL...ALLOWING THE SNOW LINE TO
STEADILY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. EXPECT
MOSTLY SNOW ALONG AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-65 BY 8 AM...WITH SNOW
SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. WE WILL HAVE TO CAREFULLY MONITOR THE DEFORMATION BAND
LOCATED ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD EASILY SUPPORT
HEAVIER MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS AND HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES. THE MAIN
REASON WE TAKE SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST IS BECAUSE WE BELIEVE
THE DYNAMIC COOLING AND PRECIP RATES WILL BE ENOUGH TO OVERWHELM THE
COLUMN TO BRING IT TO A DEEP NEAR FREEZING ISOTHERMAL LAYER ALL THE
WAY TO THE COAST. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ALMOST ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

AS ALWAYS...PREDICTING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IS CHALLENGING. MODEL
QPF CONTINUES TO BE VERY CONSISTENT WITH NEAR A HALF INCH IN THE NORTH
TO AN INCH ALONG THE COAST. MOST OF THE QPF ACROSS THE NORTH WILL
FALL AS SNOW WITH RATIOS BETWEEN 8:1 AND 10:1. THIS SUPPORTS SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES. FURTHER SOUTH THERE IS MORE QPF THAT COULD
RESULT IN EVEN HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS. HOWEVER...WITH ISOTHERMAL NEAR
FREEZING PROFILES...WE MAY SEE A LOT OF QPF LOST AS PRECIP BOUNCES
BACK AND FORTH FROM RAIN/SLEET/SNOW BEFORE FINALLY CHANGING OVER TO
ALL SNOW. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES TO AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE I-10 CORRIDOR. AGAIN...HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER BANDS THAT MATERIALIZE. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WE GENERALLY
EXPECT LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW AS THESE AREAS WILL BE THE LAST TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW AND HAVE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES. ALL PRECIP
SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

TEMPS WILL COOL QUICKLY WITH THE ONSET OF HEAVIER PRECIP SO HAVE LOWS
NEAR 30 NORTH TO MID 30S ALONG THE COAST. WENT WELL BELOW GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS TOMORROW WITH TEMPS NOT CLIMBING MUCH OUT OF THE MID 30S.
BLACK ICE WILL BE A CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 20S UNDER CLEARING SKIES. MAY BE COLDER IN SOME LOCATIONS
THAT HAVE A GREATER SNOW PACK. 34/JFB

[Dean4Storms]

Ok now it is time for the radar period..what is the best radar to use that shows the snow sleet and rain? A nice quality one for us to use tonightb

I use Weathertap.com........But it is a pay site!

[Ivanhater]

Thats no help Dean! lol

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Ok now it is time for the radar period..what is the best radar to use that shows the snow sleet and rain? A nice quality one for us to use tonightb

Try this. I find its pretty good.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx

[Dean4Storms]

Just sayin, LOL