Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

The big story continues to be the big swell event this weekend.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 111849
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST THU FEB 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ESTABLISH OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER PUERTO
RICO...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER YAUCO...AND WERE NEARLY
STATIONARY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT LEAST THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES
SHOWS COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...COMPUTER MODELS DO NOT SHOWED ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER RELATED WITH THIS SYSTEM..EXCEPT FOR
CLOUDINESS AND SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE FRONT WILL
THEN LIFT NORTH AND WILL DISSIPATED AS MOVES AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
AREA. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
AND LOW PROBABILITIES OF RAINFALL. IN THE LONG TERM...NO WEATHER
EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AT THIS MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
ONLY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHRA. EXPECT
VOLCANIC ASH FROM MONTSERRAT TO CONTINUE VERY NEAR OR OVER TKPK
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.


MARINE...AS MARINE MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS LARGE
LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS OF BETWEEN 12-14 FT AT 14 SECS WILL
ARRIVE INTO OUR ATLANTIC COASTLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND CREATING VERY LARGE BREAKING WAVE ACTION WITH
VERY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING.
RESIDENTS AND TOURISTS ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER THIS
WEEKEND..

[cycloneye]

A large eruption of the Soufriere Volcano occured this afternoon.Go to Geology forum for all the details. viewforum.php?f=67

[cycloneye]

High Surf Warning in effect

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
620 PM AST THU FEB 11 2010

...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND DANGEROUS SURF EVENT EXPECTED ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-013-VIZ001-121400-
/O.UPG.TJSJ.CF.A.0001.100212T1200Z-100213T0800Z/
/O.NEW.TJSJ.CF.W.0001.100212T1400Z-100213T1200Z/
/O.NEW.TJSJ.SU.W.0001.100212T1400Z-100213T1200Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
620 PM AST THU FEB 11 2010

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM AST
SATURDAY...
...HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM AST
SATURDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TONIGHT. VERY STRONG WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ARE GENERATING VERY LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH
NORTHWEST SWELLS THAT WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
COASTLINES LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS BREAKING WAVES OF OVER 20 FEET ALONG REEFS AND STEEP
COASTLINES WILL BE BETWEEN FRIDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. AFTERWARD...BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DIMINISH...BUT WILL
STILL BE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

RESIDENTS AND TOURISTS WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN
COASTLINES OF ALL LOCAL ISLANDS EXCEPT ST CROIX...SHOULD PREPARE
FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND TAKE ACTION NOW TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY. WATER RISES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDAL LEVELS ARE
POSSIBLE. THESE SWELLS MAY BE SIMILAR IN NATURE TO THOSE
EXPERIENCED IN PUERTO RICO DECEMBER 27 THROUGH 29 OF 2009...WHICH
RESULTED IN FATALITIES AND MODERATE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE STRONG AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS
WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS. THESE NARROW OUTWARD
FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS AWAY FROM THE COAST
LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO
NOT PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR BEARINGS RELATIVE
TO THE BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH. YOU WILL EVENTUALLY
LEAVE THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE ABLE TO SAFELY SWIM
TO SHORE.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS ARE
URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE
BREAKING WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF
ALL SIZES INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE
LINE AND STAY OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
COASTAL FLOODING...CAUSING INUNDATION OF COASTAL ROADS...LOW LYING
AREAS... AND BEACH EROSION. RESIDENTS AND LOCAL OFFICIALS SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS IN CASE COASTAL FLOODING
OCCURS OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. THIS SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. KEEP TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION. WHILE THERE IS STILL TIME...COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD
MAKE IMPORTANT PRELIMINARY PLANS TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE AND
PROPERTY.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING MARINE SITUATION FROM YOUR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION WILL
BE DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FRIDAY EVENING.

THE TIMES OF THE FRIDAY HIGH TIDES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 8:33 AM AST FRIDAY MORNING AT 1.3 FEET
7:47 PM AST FRIDAY EVENING AT 0.9 FEET

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 8:56 AM AST FRIDAY MORNING AT 1.0 FEET
9:15 AM AST SATURDAY MORNING AT 1.0 FEET

Coastal Flood Warning in effect

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
620 PM AST THU FEB 11 2010

...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND DANGEROUS SURF EVENT EXPECTED ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-013-VIZ001-121400-
/O.UPG.TJSJ.CF.A.0001.100212T1200Z-100213T0800Z/
/O.NEW.TJSJ.CF.W.0001.100212T1400Z-100213T1200Z/
/O.NEW.TJSJ.SU.W.0001.100212T1400Z-100213T1200Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
620 PM AST THU FEB 11 2010

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM AST
SATURDAY...
...HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM AST
SATURDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TONIGHT. VERY STRONG WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ARE GENERATING VERY LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH
NORTHWEST SWELLS THAT WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
COASTLINES LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS BREAKING WAVES OF OVER 20 FEET ALONG REEFS AND STEEP
COASTLINES WILL BE BETWEEN FRIDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. AFTERWARD...BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DIMINISH...BUT WILL
STILL BE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

RESIDENTS AND TOURISTS WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN
COASTLINES OF ALL LOCAL ISLANDS EXCEPT ST CROIX...SHOULD PREPARE
FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND TAKE ACTION NOW TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY. WATER RISES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDAL LEVELS ARE
POSSIBLE. THESE SWELLS MAY BE SIMILAR IN NATURE TO THOSE
EXPERIENCED IN PUERTO RICO DECEMBER 27 THROUGH 29 OF 2009...WHICH
RESULTED IN FATALITIES AND MODERATE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE STRONG AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS
WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS. THESE NARROW OUTWARD
FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS AWAY FROM THE COAST
LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO
NOT PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR BEARINGS RELATIVE
TO THE BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH. YOU WILL EVENTUALLY
LEAVE THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE ABLE TO SAFELY SWIM
TO SHORE.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS ARE
URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE
BREAKING WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF
ALL SIZES INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE
LINE AND STAY OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
COASTAL FLOODING...CAUSING INUNDATION OF COASTAL ROADS...LOW LYING
AREAS... AND BEACH EROSION. RESIDENTS AND LOCAL OFFICIALS SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS IN CASE COASTAL FLOODING
OCCURS OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. THIS SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. KEEP TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION. WHILE THERE IS STILL TIME...COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD
MAKE IMPORTANT PRELIMINARY PLANS TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE AND
PROPERTY.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING MARINE SITUATION FROM YOUR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION WILL
BE DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FRIDAY EVENING.

THE TIMES OF THE FRIDAY HIGH TIDES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 8:33 AM AST FRIDAY MORNING AT 1.3 FEET
7:47 PM AST FRIDAY EVENING AT 0.9 FEET

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 8:56 AM AST FRIDAY MORNING AT 1.0 FEET
9:15 AM AST SATURDAY MORNING AT 1.0 FEET

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.The big swell event is here.About the Soufriere Volcano,go to geology forum for the latest.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
612 AM AST FRI FEB 12 2010

.UPDATE...AMMENDED FCST TO RAISE POPS ALONG THE NORTH COAST AS
CDFNT HAS GOTTEN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THIS MORNING. AMOUNTS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. CVRG IS STILL EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM AST FRI FEB 12 2010/

SYNOPSIS...A BROAD TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WRN/CNTRL ATLC OVR
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WHILE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLC. CDFNT WILL STALL ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PR TODAY
THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. LARGE NORTH SWELLS WILL
IMPACT THE ATLC COASTLINES ALL WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...CDFNT WILL STALL ALONG THE NORTH COAST TODAY BEFORE
LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT SHRAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY AS FRONT MEANDERS ACROSS THE AREA BUT
MAIN IMPACTS WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE LARGE NORTH SWELLS THAT WILL
ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING. ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT QUICKLY TONIGHT AS
REGION BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH
CENTERED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. MODELS INDICATE VERY DRY AIR AND
STABLE CONDITIONS THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH PRESIDENTS DAY SO WENT
WITH NO WX SAT-MON. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW ANY FRONTS PENETRATING THIS
FAR SOUTH NEXT WEEK AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN STRONG.
HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING SHALLOW CONVECTION CAN NOT BE RULED MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

WHILE IT MIGHT LOOK SAFE TO GO TO THE BEACH THIS MORNING...SWELLS
WILL ARRIVE VERY QUICKLY BY MIDDAY POSSIBLY TAKING PEOPLE BY
SURPRISE. SWELLS OF 13-15 FT AT AROUND 14 SECS ARE STILL FORECAST
BY MARINE MODELS. BREAKERS OF 20-25 FT WILL BE COMMON THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WAVE RUN-UP WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH TOTAL WATER
RISES OF UP TO 4 FT POSSIBLE AT THE TIME OF THE HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING. EVENTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE HAVE CAUSED COASTAL FLOODING IN
THE PAST SO THE REASON FOR THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. PLEASE REFER
TO CFW HAZARD MESSAGE FOR MORE DETAILS.

AVIATION...SMALL BANDS OF LOW LEVEL CLDS MAINLY BTW 020-070K FT
WITH A FEW ISOLD -SHRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AT LEAST
UNTIL 12/12Z. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY...
WITH NO SIG OPERATIONAL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER... ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS... ONGOING VA EMISSIONS CONTINUED FM TRPG SOUFRIERE
HILLS VOLCANO AFTER A SIGNIFICANT ERUPTION ON THURSDAY. CURRENT
WIND FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF VA WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LCL
AREA... BUT BECAUSE OF LIGHT L/LVL WIND FLOW...VA MAY STILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AROUND TKPK THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVR NXT 24-36 HRS AS LOW LEVEL WND FLOW IS
FCST TO BECOME MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST.

MARINE...13-15 FT SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS ATLC WATERS WITH 7-11 FT
SEAS ACROSS PASSAGES. SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND.

[cycloneye]

A reminder to our Caribbean friends that want information about the Soufriere Volcano,you can go to Geology forum for the very latest.

[Gustywind]

A reminder to our Caribbean friends that want information about the Soufriere Volcano,you can go to Geology forum for the very latest.

Thanks Luis, we appreciate with this "ash" episode.

[cycloneye]

You can view this big swell event in the different cams located at beaches Here and Here

[cycloneye]

Updated High Surf Warning

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1143 AM AST FRI FEB 12 2010

...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND DANGEROUS SURF EVENT EXPECTED
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINES THE REST OF TODAY AND SATURDAY...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-013-VIZ001-130100-
/O.CON.TJSJ.CF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100213T1200Z/
/O.CON.TJSJ.SU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100213T1200Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
1143 AM AST FRI FEB 12 2010

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM AST SATURDAY...
...HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM AST SATURDAY...

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING AND A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 AM AST SATURDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST
COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND FOR THE NORTHERN
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

VERY LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES THE REST OF TODAY...PEAKING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE VERY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKING
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 16 TO 24 FEET AND LOCALLY HIGHER...ALONG THE LOCAL
REEFS...BEACHES AND SHOALS...CREATING VERY DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS AND FREQUENT...POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS.

IN ADDITION...WAVE RUN UP OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IS
POSSIBLE. THESE SWELLS MAY BE SIMILAR IN NATURE TO THOSE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DECEMBER 27 THROUGH 29 OF
2009...WHICH RESULTED IN FATALITIES AND LOCALIZED...MODERATE
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AT LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO
RICO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE STRONG AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS
WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS. THESE NARROW OUTWARD
FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS AWAY FROM THE COAST
LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT
PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR BEARINGS RELATIVE TO THE
BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH. YOU WILL EVENTUALLY LEAVE
THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE ABLE TO SAFELY SWIM TO
SHORE.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS SHOULD
STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE
BREAKING WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF
ALL SIZES INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE
LINE AND STAY OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
COASTAL FLOODING...CAUSING INUNDATION OF COASTAL ROADS...LOW LYING
AREAS...AND BEACH EROSION.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION
WILL BE DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FRIDAY EVENING.

THE TIMES OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 7:47 PM AST FRIDAY EVENING AT 0.9 FEET.
9:06 AM AST SATURDAY MORNING AT 1.3 FEET

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 9:15 AM AST SATURDAY MORNING AT 1.0 FEET

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON THIS DANGEROUS MARINE SITUATION FROM YOUR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN.

[cycloneye]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=marine_news

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
324 PM AST FRI FEB 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS RESULTING IN
GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE TAIL END OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE
MOVING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND DISSIPATING LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH EXPECT TONIGHT TO BE MAINLY DRY...THIS
LINGERING BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE COULD CAUSE SOME
FORECAST HEADACHES WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT...IF IT
DOES NOT BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY MORE STEADILY. BY SATURDAY HOWEVER...
DO EXPECT REMNANTS OF THIS FEATURE TO BE MAINLY GONE AND
AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS...SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY
DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH THIS WEATHER LIKELY
LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY AND PROBABLY MONDAY TOO.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. VERY LARGE
AREA OF LEFTOVER VOLCANIC ASH FROM THE LARGE ERUPTION FROM
THURSDAY CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO OUR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. THIS ASH SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF TONIGHT...BUT WINDS BECOME
MORE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH THE COLUMN AND EXPECT THIS ASH
AND ASH FROM ONGOING EMISSIONS TO BECOME MORE AND MORE OF A HAZARD
LOCALLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ALL AVIATION INTERESTS
SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO LATER FORECASTS...ADVISORIES AND
SIGMETS.

&&

.MARINE...VERY LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND PEAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAKING FOR VERY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS.
THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING
SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT.

[cycloneye]

Updated Coastal Flood Warning and High Surf Advisory

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
849 PM AST FRI FEB 12 2010

...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND DANGEROUS SURF EVENT EXPECTED
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINES OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-013-VIZ001-131200-
/O.CON.TJSJ.CF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100213T1200Z/
/O.CON.TJSJ.SU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100213T1200Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
849 PM AST FRI FEB 12 2010

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM AST SATURDAY...
...HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM AST SATURDAY...

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING AND A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 AM AST SATURDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST
COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND FOR THE NORTHERN
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

VERY LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
PEAK ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
THE REST OF THIS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 16 TO 24 FEET AND
LOCALLY HIGHER...ALONG THE LOCAL REEFS...BEACHES AND SHOALS OF THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...CREATING
VERY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND FREQUENT...POTENTIALLY DEADLY
RIP CURRENTS.

IN ADDITION...WAVE RUN UP OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IS
POSSIBLE. THESE SWELLS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR IN NATURE TO THOSE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DECEMBER 27 THROUGH 29 OF
2009...WHICH RESULTED IN FATALITIES AND LOCALIZED...MODERATE
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AT LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO
RICO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE STRONG AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS
WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS. THESE NARROW OUTWARD
FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS AWAY FROM THE COAST
LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT
PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR BEARINGS RELATIVE TO THE
BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH. YOU WILL EVENTUALLY LEAVE
THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE ABLE TO SAFELY SWIM TO
SHORE.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS SHOULD
STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS SUBSIDE.
PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR VERY LARGE BREAKING
WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF ALL SIZES
INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND
STAY OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
COASTAL FLOODING...CAUSING INUNDATION OF COASTAL ROADS...LOW LYING
AREAS...AND BEACH EROSION.

THE GREATEST ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH
EROSION WILL BE DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY MORNING.

THE TIMES OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 9:06 AM AST SATURDAY MORNING AT 1.3 FEET
8:36 PM AST SATURDAY EVENING AT 1.0 FEET

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 9:15 AM AST SATURDAY MORNING AT 1.0 FEET
6:55 PM AST SATURDAY EVENING AT 0.3 FEET

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON THIS DANGEROUS MARINE SITUATION FROM YOUR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN.

Updated High Surf Advisory

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
849 PM AST FRI FEB 12 2010

...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND DANGEROUS SURF EVENT EXPECTED
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINES OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-013-VIZ001-131200-
/O.CON.TJSJ.CF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100213T1200Z/
/O.CON.TJSJ.SU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100213T1200Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
849 PM AST FRI FEB 12 2010

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM AST SATURDAY...
...HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM AST SATURDAY...

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING AND A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 AM AST SATURDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST
COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND FOR THE NORTHERN
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

VERY LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
PEAK ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
THE REST OF THIS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 16 TO 24 FEET AND
LOCALLY HIGHER...ALONG THE LOCAL REEFS...BEACHES AND SHOALS OF THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...CREATING
VERY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND FREQUENT...POTENTIALLY DEADLY
RIP CURRENTS.

IN ADDITION...WAVE RUN UP OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IS
POSSIBLE. THESE SWELLS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR IN NATURE TO THOSE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DECEMBER 27 THROUGH 29 OF
2009...WHICH RESULTED IN FATALITIES AND LOCALIZED...MODERATE
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AT LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO
RICO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE STRONG AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS
WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS. THESE NARROW OUTWARD
FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS AWAY FROM THE COAST
LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT
PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR BEARINGS RELATIVE TO THE
BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH. YOU WILL EVENTUALLY LEAVE
THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE ABLE TO SAFELY SWIM TO
SHORE.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS SHOULD
STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS SUBSIDE.
PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR VERY LARGE BREAKING
WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF ALL SIZES
INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND
STAY OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
COASTAL FLOODING...CAUSING INUNDATION OF COASTAL ROADS...LOW LYING
AREAS...AND BEACH EROSION.

THE GREATEST ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH
EROSION WILL BE DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY MORNING.

THE TIMES OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 9:06 AM AST SATURDAY MORNING AT 1.3 FEET
8:36 PM AST SATURDAY EVENING AT 1.0 FEET

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 9:15 AM AST SATURDAY MORNING AT 1.0 FEET
6:55 PM AST SATURDAY EVENING AT 0.3 FEET

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON THIS DANGEROUS MARINE SITUATION FROM YOUR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN.

[cycloneye]

Sad news to report as a girl was swept away by the strong rip currents in a beach.They are looking for her but with no sign of being found.

http://www.elnuevodia.com/jovenmenordee ... 71667.html

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.The ash joins the big swells as the biggest storys for today.For the latest on the Soufriere Volcano go Here

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST SAT FEB 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA
AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST...BRINGING
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO
RICO. VOLCANIC ASH WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...DRY WEATHER HAS MOVED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. SUBSIDING AIR...WILL LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE WEEKEND. 00Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWS PW VALUES
WENT DOWN TO 1.3 INCHES...AND PROG SOUNDINGS FROM GFS COMPUTER
MODEL INDICATED PW VALUES WILL DROP AS LOW AS 1.03 INCHES BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...DON`T EXPECT TOO MUCH IN TERM OF
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. WINDS THEN...WILL TURN
MORE EASTERLY BY MONDAY...AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. VOLCANIC ASH FROM A MAJOR ERUPTION AND
DOME COLLAPSE OF THE VOLCANO ON MONTSERRAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. THIS WILL CREATE HAZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. REFER TO AVIATION SECTION FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS ARE FORECAST BY COMPUTER MODELS TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDS ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA...AND ALL LOCAL TERMINAL AERODROMES TODAY. HOWEVER...SOME
FINELY SUSPENDED PARTICULATES OF VA FROM THE MONTSERRAT VOLCANO AT
TRPG...WILL DRIFT NORTHWEST ACROSS ALL OR PARTS OF THE FLYING AREA...
AS WNDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE VA IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISPERSE AS IT MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM ITS
SOURCE UNLESS THERE IS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT ERUPTION...THE ONGOING
EMISSIONS WILL BE STEERED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO BASED ON THE PRESENT WIND FLOW. FOR NOW DECIDED TO
INCLUDE VA IN TAF SITES TJPS AND TISX UNTIL 13/12Z...AS SAT IMAGERY
SUGGESTED HIGHEST CONCENTRATION MOV ACROSS THOSE AREAS AT THIS
TIME. ALL AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO LATEST
TAF FCST AN UPDATES...AS WELL AS ADVISORIES AND SIGMETS.


&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...MAKING FOR VERY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS.
BOUY 41043 IS SHOWING A DECREASING TREND IN THE SWELLS...WITH
SWELLS NOW AT THE BUOY OF NEAR 9 FEET AT 14 SECONDS. SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER...HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TOMORROW...HIGHER THAN NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BOTH DAYS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

High Surf Warning changed to Advisory

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1008 AM AST SAT FEB 13 2010

...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-013-VIZ001-140200-
/O.CAN.TJSJ.CF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100213T1400Z/
/O.CAN.TJSJ.SU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100213T1400Z/
/O.EXB.TJSJ.SU.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-100214T0800Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
1008 AM AST SAT FEB 13 2010

...HIGH SURF WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
AND THIS ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM AST SUNDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS REPLACED THE HIGH
SURF WARNING WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
4 AM AST SUNDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF ALL
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THE REST OF
TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THESE
SWELLS HAVE PEAKED...THEY WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 14 TO 20 FEET AND
LOCALLY HIGHER...ALONG THE LOCAL REEFS...BEACHES AND SHOALS OF THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...CREATING
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND FREQUENT...POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP
CURRENTS. THEREFORE...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF ANY ADDITIONAL...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING HAS ENDED AND THEREFORE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WAS
CANCELLED.

THESE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE STRONG AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS
WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS. THESE NARROW OUTWARD
FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS AWAY FROM THE COAST
LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT
PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR BEARINGS RELATIVE TO THE
BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH. YOU WILL EVENTUALLY LEAVE
THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE ABLE TO SAFELY SWIM TO
SHORE.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS SHOULD
STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS SUBSIDE.
PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE BREAKING WAVES
SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF ALL SIZES INTO
THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND STAY OFF
OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE.

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 8:36 PM AST THIS EVENING AT 1.0 FEET

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 6:55 PM AST THIS EVENING AT 0.3 FEET

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON THIS DANGEROUS MARINE SITUATION FROM YOUR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
340 PM AST SAT FEB 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN
GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS TO RESULT IN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY AND PROBABLY TUESDAY ALSO...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY INCREASE
A BIT BY LATER TUESDAY AN TUESDAY NIGHT.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST COASTS OF ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH 4 AM AST
SUNDAY...AS LONG PERIOD...NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. DESPITE
LIMITED PIREPS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS (EXCEPT TISX) REPORTING
IT...LEFTOVER...DISPERSING VOLCANIC ASH HAS MOVED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND PRODUCING HAZY
CONDITIONS. THIS ASH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...NEW ASH AND
STEAM FROM MONTSERRAT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TKPK THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY TONIGHT. ALL AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR LATER FORECASTS...ADVISORIES AND SIGMETS.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE...LONG PERIOD...NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING...MAINTAINING ROUGH
AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
425 AM AST SUN FEB 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...COMBINED WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FAIRLY
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WILL HELP TO KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY TO A
MINIMUM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL...FAIR AND
NICE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...XCEPT FOR LCL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS IN SOME AREAS...
A GENERAL SOUTHERLY WND FLOW BTW 5-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL BLO 20K FT
TODAY. VFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURG THE NXT 24
HRS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THIS MORNING.
WHILE OCCASIONAL BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...FREQUENT BREAKING WAVES OF 10
FEET OR GREATER ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED AND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
WAS CANCELLED AT 4 AM AST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH NOON...AND SMALL CRAFTS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...AS WELL AS
NEAR THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...TODAY.

[Macrocane]

Yesterday Central America a cold front and associated high pressure produced weak to moderate northerly winds and this morning San Salvador registered 17 °C (63 °F) its lowest temperature in a month. If I can get access to the data of other meteorological stations in El Salvador I will post the observations here.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST SUN FEB 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...STILL EXPECT MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS
RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...SUBSIDENCE AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD MAINTAIN A MAINLY DRY WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AND
PROBABLY WEDNESDAY TOO. STILL EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FOR LATER TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD NOT
RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS OR SHOWERS.
ALSO...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT ANY REAL PROBLEMS FROM THEM...WE
WILL ALSO WATCH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OR SHEAR LINES
PASSING BY MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY.
EMISSIONS OF ASH AND STEAM FROM MONTSERRAT CONTINUE AND EXPECT
ASH TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT TKPK AND SURROUNDING AREAS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. PULSES OF LONG PERIOD...NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
439 AM AST MON FEB 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
LOCALLY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC SEPARATED BY WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WILL MAINTAIN
AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS BEING ENHANCED JUST NORTH OF AREA...
AIDED BY WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENT AREA AND 60-70 KNOT JET SEGMENT.
HOWEVER...OVERALL RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. A GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK... AS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THIS
MORNING. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE CURRENT TREND FOR MOSTLY DRY AND
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE AND THE GENERAL SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL...
THUS MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES. MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL RULE AND MAINTAIN A MAINLY DRY WEATHER
PATTERN WITH VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IF ANY. STILL HOWEVER EXPECT
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POSSIBLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH BUILDS JUST NORTHEAST OF LEEWARDS AND SHALLOW FRAGMENTS OF MOISTURE
FROM OLD FRONTAL SHEAR LINES WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING
WATERS AND REACH PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS OR WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS MOSTLY PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE DAYTIME.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA...AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
EMISSIONS OF ASH AND STEAM FROM MONTSERRAT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY BUT THESE EMISSIONS ARE SO FAR LIGHT AND PLUME SHOULD BE DIFFUSE.
SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS MAY OCCUR IN PUERTO RICO AFTER 15/16Z WITH
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN TJMZ UNTIL 15/22Z MAINLY DUE TO LWR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 14 KNOTS OR LESS
TODAY. LATEST DATA OBTAINED FROM THE BUOY 41043 NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...SUGGESTED A CONTINUED GRADUALLY DECLINE IN THE NORTHERLY SWELL
ACTION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.