Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[srainhoutx]

FYI: RECON Schedule for the Pacific...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 141730
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EST SUN 14 FEBRUARY 2010
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z FEBRUARY 2010
WSPOD NUMBER.....09-076

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. P27/ 35.5N 156.0W/ 16/1200Z
B. AFXXX 29WSC TRACK27
C. 16/0600Z
D. 19 DROPS ON TRACK
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 16/1800Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PSBL WC 130 MISSION P20/ 40N 141W/
17/1200Z WVW

[southerngale]

No 50s here, as forecast. Mid-40s for a high, so far. Yesterday, the high was supposed to be in the 40s, and I didn't get out of the 30s. Chilly, indeed.

So... have our snow chances in the next few weeks increased or decreased with today's model runs?

Let's put it this way ... our chances are better if the Europeans are right and the Americans are wrong.

12z ECMWF is starting to look like the previous GFS runs out through 168hr, warmer with most of the precip (storm) further up north.

Americans FTW, and we end up losing.

[srainhoutx]

Before Portastorm cancels winter in TX, perhaps someone should post the informative discussion from Dallas Ft Worth and why the models may be struggling...

[Portastorm]

Before Portastorm cancels winter in TX, perhaps someone should post the informative discussion from Dallas Ft Worth and why the models may be struggling...

That's right ... I've already told srainhoutx that I'm seriously considering making the big proclamation! Hope is fading fast.

[serenata09]

Looks like some pretty good radar returns showing up north and west of DFW.

[DentonGal]

Looks like some pretty good radar returns showing up north and west of DFW.

Yep, friends in Pilot Point and Aubrey are getting snow right now...they're shocked. I don't know if it will get as far south as Denton, but it's finally starting to make a more southerly move now.

[Weatherdude20]

Watching two areas of Snow develop pretty nicely.

[vbhoutex]

Before Portastorm cancels winter in TX, perhaps someone should post the informative discussion from Dallas Ft Worth and why the models may be struggling...

That's right ... I've already told srainhoutx that I'm seriously considering making the big proclamation! Hope is fading fast.

Hold him back Steve!! Tie his hands behind him!!

Here is a snippet from the Dallas Disco:

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES...HOWEVER THERE IS A BIT MORE CONSENSUS TODAY. OUR NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND
SHOULD PUSH A STRONG FRONT THROUGH AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE REGION. GFS IS THE WETTER OF ALL THE MODELS...AND WILL
UNDERCUT THE POPS...BUT THIS STILL RESULTS IN A 30-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE EAST
WHERE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST.

[Ntxw]

I'm surprised FW went off a limb like that instead of hugging to the models, that's what they usually do. Perhaps the last storm got them off the conservative bandwagon and realize the kind of winter we're having and what it's doing. I worry it may be the wrong time for them to do that though lol. Cause that's how it usually works, when they decide to go with an idea...it turns out not in their favor\forecast.

[srainhoutx]

Before Portastorm cancels winter in TX, perhaps someone should post the informative discussion from Dallas Ft Worth and why the models may be struggling...

That's right ... I've already told srainhoutx that I'm seriously considering making the big proclamation! Hope is fading fast.

Hold him back Steve!! Tie his hands behind him!!

Here is a snippet from the Dallas Disco:

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES...HOWEVER THERE IS A BIT MORE CONSENSUS TODAY. OUR NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND
SHOULD PUSH A STRONG FRONT THROUGH AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE REGION. GFS IS THE WETTER OF ALL THE MODELS...AND WILL
UNDERCUT THE POPS...BUT THIS STILL RESULTS IN A 30-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE EAST
WHERE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST.

And this section...

WILL KEEP WEEKEND FORECAST DRY...WITH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER
A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE POOLING UP IN NORTHERN CANADA...AND
ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IT WILL MOVE SOUTH DESPITE THE CURRENT
MODEL FORECASTS. IT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER UPPER RIDGING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST. LATEST MODELS ALL SHOW
STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WEAKENING THE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND AND
SLIDING UNDERNEATH THROUGH CALIFORNIA. THIS WOULD MAINTAIN OUR
ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL PATTERN AND KEEP THE SERIOUS ARCTIC AIR
GENERALLY BOTTLED UP TO OUR NORTH. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL IN
EASTERN ASIA...BUT IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW ALL THIS
PLAYS OUT NEXT WEEK.

Step back from the ledge Portastorm...read Don's update in the When will we See Arctic Air Return Topic...

[msstateguy83]

Uh... uh iam speachless double trouble on the gfs 228 hours till 336 hrs... go look DAMN, DAMN!

[msstateguy83]

URL=http://img141.imageshack.us/i/gfs32010021418f348snowi.png/][/URL]

[Ntxw]

It's the 18z, shouldn't put too much money on it. If it shows up on the 0z it'll have more merit. I'm not trusting the GFS very much with the upcoming pattern yet.

[msstateguy83]

same here i would just say it could be one heck of a ride over the next 2 weeks.... hang on lol

[cheezyWXguy]

For the sake of my summer, I hope the 18z is over exaggerated, at least in terms of duration of the storm. Such a storm would probably give me another 2 days off of school, after already having a day off on friday. Nonetheless, another 6-8 inches and one more day off wouldnt be so bad. But it is the 18z and 252 hours before onset of snow, so we need a lot of continuity and a solid trend to see if this is even remotely plausible. Regardless of whether it would verify 11 days out, I still think winter has another trick up its sleeve.

An interesting thing to note though, I still remember probably 8 days before the massive snowstorm on thursday, when the gfs dropped about a foot over most of the dfw area. Interesting how it caught on so far out.

[iorange55]

For the sake of my summer, I hope the 18z is over exaggerated, at least in terms of duration of the storm. Such a storm would probably give me another 2 days off of school, after already having a day off on friday. Nonetheless, another 6-8 inches and one more day off wouldnt be so bad. But it is the 18z and 252 hours before onset of snow, so we need a lot of continuity and a solid trend to see if this is even remotely plausible. Regardless of whether it would verify 11 days out, I still think winter has another trick up its sleeve.

An interesting thing to note though, I still remember probably 8 days before the massive snowstorm on thursday, when the gfs dropped about a foot over most of the dfw area. Interesting how it caught on so far out.

Forget Summer I want 15 more inches of snow.

[cheezyWXguy]

For the sake of my summer, I hope the 18z is over exaggerated, at least in terms of duration of the storm. Such a storm would probably give me another 2 days off of school, after already having a day off on friday. Nonetheless, another 6-8 inches and one more day off wouldnt be so bad. But it is the 18z and 252 hours before onset of snow, so we need a lot of continuity and a solid trend to see if this is even remotely plausible. Regardless of whether it would verify 11 days out, I still think winter has another trick up its sleeve.

An interesting thing to note though, I still remember probably 8 days before the massive snowstorm on thursday, when the gfs dropped about a foot over most of the dfw area. Interesting how it caught on so far out.

Forget Summer I want 15 more inches of snow.

lol thats what I usually say. But 3 or more days off in a winter is too much for me. But if I ever saw the amount of snow here in dfw that i saw walking outside at midnight on thursday night again, I would be ecstatic. haha I dont think Ill ever forget it.

[iorange55]

It was amazing when I woke up friday morning I was in awe of the aftermath. I know it's probably already getting old talking about it for some, but it was just so surprising, and amazing.

[Texas Snowman]

We saw a couple of decent bursts of snow up here in the Red River Valley this afternoon with the little clipper system that swung through.

Man, it almost feels like a real winter around here this year!

[txagwxman]

It's the 18z, shouldn't put too much money on it. If it shows up on the 0z it'll have more merit. I'm not trusting the GFS very much with the upcoming pattern yet.

I don't think the 00z has much more skill than the 18z...so far the 18z has some pattern flips in the back that proved to be right this winter.

It has now flipped colder and more in-line with appears to be going on.