Florida Weather

[HURRICANELONNY]

Yep. Models do the flip flop. Looks like a cool week ahead. After that it looks like a warm up starting the end of the week(20th).

[gatorcane]

NWS Tampa Bay Discussion discusses possible pattern change beginning Thursday of the upcoming week...could this be the signal that we are beginning the transition from winter into spring....climatology is soon going to not be on the side of cold fronts like we are seeing this weekend....only once in the last 4 March's has Miami dipped below 50 deg for a low temp (3/3/09 low of 47 deg, no other lows below 50 deg in March 2006, 2007, 2008).

Per NWS Tampa Bay:

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST
WILL BE DOMINATED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT STARTS OFF OVER
TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST ON THURSDAY THEN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY.
THIS IS A HUGE CHANGE FROM THE FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS IN THE
ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WE HAVE HAD OVER THE LAST MONTH OR SO.

A SLOW WARMING TREND BEGINS ON THURSDAY WHEN MOST PLACES REACH OR
BEAT 60 DEGREES AND EVEN APPROACH 70 FAR SOUTHWEST. IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE DRY...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD AGAIN LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY ON
FRIDAY...CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S AND PROBABLY REACHING THE LOWER
70S AROUND FORT MYERS.

BY SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS FOR A CHANGE
WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 NORTH...LOWER 70S CENTRAL AND EVEN SOME MID 70S
SOUTH.

It would be nice if we saw some "normal" temperatures this winter, ever since that record cold blast for the first two weeks of the new years, seems we just can't shake these below normal temps, maybe a day or a couple of days at or above normal, then right back to well below normal temps. This weekend was yet another weekend this year where we saw much below normal temps. Had to put the heat on during the afternoon as some high strato-cumulus clouds rolled in sucking away any heat that was building up. I would REALLY like to see some good East Coast ridging for a change. Seems its been all troughiness for the past several weeks.

Here is some data for the past couple of months. Note the "Dep" column which indicates the departure from normal. Lots and lots of negatives when you read that column:

000
CXUS52 KMFL 011305
CF6PBI
PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)

STATION: WEST PALM BEACH
MONTH: JANUARY
YEAR: 2010
LATITUDE: 26 40 N
LONGITUDE: 80 7 W

TEMPERATURE IN F: CPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY K WND
================================================================================
1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
12Z AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR
================================================================================

1 79 51 65 -2 0 0 0.13 0.0 0 8.9 28 290 M M 7 18 33 290
2 62 43 53 -14 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 12.0 21 330 M M 2 26 340
3 63 42 53 -14 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.9 17 310 M M 6 22 320
4 58 39 49 -18 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.9 17 310 M M 5 21 300
5 56 37 47 -20 18 0 T 0.0 0 10.4 25 290 M M 3 31 280
6 55 34 45 -22 20 0 T 0.0 0 9.7 20 310 M M 1 25 320
7 63 37 50 -16 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.9 12 350 M M 6 14 340
8 76 45 61 -5 4 0 T 0.0 0 6.8 17 300 M M 8 28 240
9 59 34 47 -19 18 0 0.20 0.0 0 12.4 22 310 M M 9 1 26 310
10 50 32 41 -25 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 16.2 24 330 M M 6 31 300
11 62 33 48 -18 17 0 0.00 0.0 0 11.1 17 310 M M 2 22 320
12 63 38 51 -15 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.2 14 310 M M 3 16 320
13 65 39 52 -14 13 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.3 13 320 M M 6 18 50
14 73 51 62 -4 3 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.8 16 80 M M 7 21 60
15 79 64 72 6 0 7 0.50 0.0 0 13.3 14 90 M M 8 18 18 90
16 79 70 75 9 0 10 0.00 0.0 0 16.1 28 130 M M 7 33 130
17 77 64 71 5 0 6 0.66 0.0 0 13.0 25 150 M M 7 18 35 150
18 72 56 64 -2 1 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.8 20 290 M M 4 1 24 270
19 71 49 60 -6 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.8 12 330 M M 4 1 14 330
20 77 51 64 -2 1 0 0.00 0.0 0 2.9 10 100 M M 4 18 18 90
21 81 66 74 8 0 9 0.00 0.0 0 11.5 26 180 M M 7 36 190
22 86 68 77 11 0 12 0.05 0.0 0 10.9 23 240 M M 7 18 29 250
23 76 64 70 4 0 5 0.00 0.0 0 10.5 21 110 M M 9 18 25 100
24 78 71 75 9 0 10 0.03 0.0 0 17.0 28 140 M M 8 33 140
25 80 54 67 1 0 2 0.46 0.0 0 13.1 24 280 M M 7 18 31 280
26 70 47 59 -7 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.9 16 350 M M 1 21 20
27 71 48 60 -6 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.2 15 30 M M 1 21 20
28 73 54 64 -2 1 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.8 15 80 M M 7 21 80
29 77 63 70 4 0 5 0.00 0.0 0 9.1 15 150 M M 6 22 140
30 83 66 75 9 0 10 0.00 0.0 0 9.6 22 220 M M 8 25 220
31 72 64 68 2 0 3 T 0.0 0 12.0 20 360 M M 9 24 10
================================================================================
SM 2186 1574 205 79 2.03 0.0 306.0 M 175
================================================================================
AV 70.5 50.8 9.9 FASTST M M 6 MAX(MPH)
MISC ----> # 28 290 # 36 190
================================================================================

000
CXUS52 KMFL 151000
CF6PBI
PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)

STATION: WEST PALM BEACH
MONTH: FEBRUARY
YEAR: 2010
LATITUDE: 26 40 N
LONGITUDE: 80 7 W

TEMPERATURE IN F: CPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY K WND
================================================================================
1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
12Z AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR
================================================================================

1 71 66 69 3 0 4 0.74 0.0 0 14.3 24 90 M M 10 1 31 80
2 80 67 74 8 0 9 0.25 0.0 0 7.2 20 110 M M 7 1 24 190
3 73 59 66 0 0 1 0.00 0.0 0 10.6 17 10 M M 5 22 10
4 76 58 67 1 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 11.6 20 110 M M 6 24 110
5 80 71 76 10 0 11 0.07 0.0 0 15.6 25 220 M M 9 35 240
6 76 51 64 -2 1 0 0.00 0.0 0 15.4 29 270 M M 5 37 260
7 63 49 56 -11 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.4 22 330 M M 3 30 330
8 69 43 56 -11 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.7 10 100 M M 4 1 15 110
9 79 56 68 1 0 3 0.60 0.0 0 11.8 24 150 M M 8 1 29 140
10 68 48 58 -9 7 0 0.00 0.0 0 13.2 23 280 M M 2 29 290
11 63 41 52 -15 13 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.2 20 330 M M 4 25 320
12 75 50 63 -4 2 0 0.65 0.0 0 11.5 23 160 M M 9 13 41 280
13 59 45 52 -15 13 0 0.00 0.0 0 13.8 31 300 M M 4 39 320
14 61 40 51 -16 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.7 15 330 M M 6 17 20
================================================================================
SM 993 744 68 30 2.31 0.0 155.0 M 82
================================================================================
AV 70.9 53.1 11.1 FASTST M M 6 MAX(MPH)
MISC ----> # 31 300 41 M
================================================================================



http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=mfl

[Patrick99]

"ever since that record cold blast for the first two weeks of the new years, seems we just can't shake these below normal temps, maybe a day or a couple of days at or above normal, then right back to well below normal temps. This weekend was yet another weekend this year where we saw much below normal temps. Had to put the heat on during the afternoon as some high strato-cumulus clouds rolled in sucking away any heat that was building up. I would REALLY like to see some good East Coast ridging for a change. Seems its been all troughiness for the past several weeks."

The last half of January was pretty warm down here. This weekend was a little chilly, though, owing mainly to those stupid high clouds that kept filtering out the sun.

For me, this winter has not been about obscenely low temps, outside of that one weekend that was pretty disgusting. It's been more about the persistence of the troughs - they dig in and don't go anywhere, leaving us in NW flow. Most winters, that NW flow lasts a day or two at a time, at most!

Meanwhile, our friends in Vancouver are having trouble getting events in, because it's too warm.

[HURRICANELONNY]

It looks as though the
next significant chance for rain may not be until Monday...when
the GFS/European model (ecmwf) both drag a potent disturbance somewhere across the
Gulf of Mexico towards the area.
By tomorrow this disturbance will probably not even be mentioned. Flip flop.............

[NDG]

Still a fairly cold afternoon along the FL west coast, thanks to west winds & the 50s coastal water temps.

[Patrick99]

Looks like a lot of high clouds streaming in from the Gulf again......so warmer at night with not as strong radiational cooling, but chillier during the day again with temps not making it out of the 60s with the heavily filtered sun.

That's happened a lot this winter, it seems.......the sun gets filtered making for poor insolation and the days are more chilly than usual. Subtropical jet? We haven't had as many of the typical cloud-free bluebird skies we usually get in winter.

NWS Miami had backed off on the mention of thunder Sun-Mon, but they are starting to mention it again in their latest discussion as a possibility. It does look like there's *something* trying to get its act together in the Gulf.

[HURRICANELONNY]

The European model (ecmwf) keeps
the deep layer moisture south of the region Tuesday through late
week. So again have gone below mex guidance for Wednesday and
Thursday. This could be another significant cold front for South
Florida with temperatures once again falling below normal by late
in the week.
ANY BETS. I THINK. NO COLD FRONT. ITS GETTING KIND OF LATE.

[NDG]

There will be yet another strong cold front to come through the Peninsula mid to late week, with below average temps coming down once again. The GFS so far is the most aggressive, raw numbers of it has upper 20s lows for interior central FL Friday morning, but I doubt we will get that cold, gfs has been kind of cold bias on its mid range forecast lately, I going along with the euro, which shows heights not as lows as the gfs.
So far for Friday morning the operational MOS is showing lower 40s for the Orlando area right along with the mos ensembles which have lows anywhere from the upper 30s to low 40s for this area.
For south FL the operational gfs raw numbers have temps dipping down into the mid-upper 30s and low 40s, but like I said, the gfs is being too aggressive with the cold air, IMO.

[jinftl]

NWS Miami forecast for Tuesday in Miami/Fort Lauderdale area...

Tuesday...Partly sunny. Warmer. Highs in the upper 80s.

[Patrick99]

I think the cold front next week will be just ordinary. NWS Miami didn't seem that excited about it today. Late Feb into March, it has to be a significant system to bring really chilly weather this far down......something along the lines of March 1993 would do it, but that's not an everyday storm.

It was *warm* today. I actually started sweating out by the pool. The hot weather will be here very soon.

[vbhoutex]

I think the cold front next week will be just ordinary. NWS Miami didn't seem that excited about it today. Late Feb into March, it has to be a significant system to bring really chilly weather this far down......something along the lines of March 1993 would do it, but that's not an everyday storm.

It was *warm* today. I actually started sweating out by the pool. The hot weather will be here very soon.

Sweating? what's that? I wouldn't go near a pool here in Texas!!

[jinftl]

Folks back on the beach basking in the glorious day....temps in the upper 70s, water temps in the 70s.

[JonathanBelles]

75 here right now, not a bad day at all!!

[Patrick99]

I think the cold front next week will be just ordinary. NWS Miami didn't seem that excited about it today. Late Feb into March, it has to be a significant system to bring really chilly weather this far down......something along the lines of March 1993 would do it, but that's not an everyday storm.

It was *warm* today. I actually started sweating out by the pool. The hot weather will be here very soon.

Sweating? what's that? I wouldn't go near a pool here in Texas!!

That's too bad. It was a really nice and warm weekend here. Clouds started rolling in this afternoon, though. Didn't make it cold.....but we are in line for 60% chances tonight and tomorrow, possibly even a stray storm with some juicy southern flow setting up. I saw a discussion quoting a possible 3" of rain, depending on where the east-west line sets up.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Looking ahead beyond the
forecast period, the European model (ecmwf) and GFS have been very consistent in
developing a powerful short wave trough over the Gulf Coast region
Monday night and Tuesday bringing a cold front across South
Florida at that time. This could be a significant weather producer
for the region and all should monitor updated forecasts through
the week and next weekend.
THE MODELS ALWAYS TALK A GOOD GAME 160 HRS OUT. THEN CRUNCH TIME. A SHOWER.

[Patrick99]

NWS Miami making my head spin with all the systems they have rolling through in the next week or so. Pretty odd for February, but perhaps normal for El Nino.

[HURRICANELONNY]

The GFS even shows a surface low tracking across south central
Florida near the lake region. If this verifies, it could be a
significant weather producer for the region. This system will be
monitored very closely over the next several days so stay tuned for
further updates.
This is I guess for 3/1. The GFS never is right this far out. It will end up closer to the Euro. Does it all the time.

[NDG]

Next week indeed S FL could be looking at a severe wx event, very early Tuesday morning by the way things look. The good thing is that last night's model have calm down a bit on how intense the low pressure that will be developing in the GOM will be.
At one point yesterday, the gfs was forecasting a low level jet across FL of 60 knots, with a jet streak of 150 knots over FL at the same time. For a while it was looking close to a March '93 storm, but good thing they have calm down.

Regarding Friday morning across central FL, it looks like the usual cold spots, Ocala..., will see yet another freeze.
Interesting that the MOS Ensembles are averaging 32 deg for KMCO while the Operational MOS is saying 35, usually the Ensembles have been warmer than the operational. But if it freezes again in Orlando it should be in a short period of time, not looking for an extended period of subfreezing temp which is more damaging.

[HURRICANELONNY]

forecaster's
nightmare as both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) continue to diverge on the next
short wave trough. While both agree there will be a strong wave move
through the very progressive pattern, they disagree as to the
whereabouts of the system once it arrive in the southeast states. The
European model (ecmwf) has been the most consistent in tracking the surface low across
North Florida and have gone more with its solution. The fact that
the GFS has taken the low south of the Keys the last two runs seems
a little hard to swallow with it too keeping the middle level trough
well to our north.


WHAT'S THE NIGHTMARE. THEY HUG THE GFS. WHEN THEY KNOW IT'S CRAP AND NOT LOGICAL. BUT THEY KEEP TALKING ABOUT THE USELESS MODEL. AS I SAID. WE'LL GET A SHOWER NEXT WEEK.

[NDG]

Temps across east-central FL are not falling as quickly as forecasted, they are running a good 3-5 deg warmer than forecasted it was going to be at 7 PM EST.