SIO : MODERATE TROPICAL STORM GELANE (16S)

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9S 58.3E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 58.3E, APPROXIMATELY 650 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
150320Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 10
HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE,
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 150137Z WINDSAT 37H IMAGE ALSO DEPICTED
IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH CONVERGENT BANDS FUELING A LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WITH WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TROUGH
EAST OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 438
WTIO30 FMEE 150643
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/12/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12
2.A POSITION 2010/02/15 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.0S / 58.5E
(TEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST
)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/02/15 18 UTC: 10.0S/59.0E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2010/02/16 06 UTC: 11.4S/59.2E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP.
DEPRESSION.
36H: 2010/02/16 18 UTC: 12.5S/59.6E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2010/02/17 06 UTC: 13.4S/59.9E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2010/02/17 18 UTC: 14.2S/60.0E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2010/02/18 06 UTC: 14.9S/60.0E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY.
IT SHOWS NOW A CURVED BAND PATTERN WRAPPING ON ABOUT 3 TENS IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
UNDER TWO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS, SYSTEM SHOULD BE
QUASI-STATIONNARY
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BEEING THE MAIN STEERING
INFLUENCE AND SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVOURABLES FOR REGULAR
INTENSIFICATION
WITHIN THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
ON AND AFTER TAU 84, SYSTEM SHOULD UNDERGO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARDS AND IS THEREFORE EXPECTED
TO
RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS.
AVAILABLE NWP MODEL'S SPREAD IS LARGE , DESPITE A GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR A SOUTHWARDS TRACK, SOME OF THEM TRACK WEST OF 60E AND
THE
OTHER EAST OF 60E.
FORECASTS BEYOND TAU 72H.
096H: 2010/02/19 06 UTC: 16.8S/59.5E, MAX WIND=075KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
120H: 2010/02/05 06 UTC: 19.2S/57.2E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.=
NNNN

[Chacor]

This is the first time Réunion are giving 96- and 120-hour forecasts. It didn't happen with Fami.

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 183
WTIO30 FMEE 151223
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/12/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12
2.A POSITION 2010/02/15 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 58.7E
(NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/02/16 00 UTC: 10.1S/59.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
24H: 2010/02/16 12 UTC: 11.2S/59.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2010/02/17 00 UTC: 12.3S/59.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2010/02/17 12 UTC: 13.2S/59.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2010/02/18 00 UTC: 13.9S/60.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2010/02/18 12 UTC: 14.6S/60.1E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS ORGANIZED WITHIN THE RECENT PAST 24
HOURS.
IT SHOWS NOW A CURVED BAND PATTERN WRAPPING ON ABOUT 3 TENS IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
UNDER TWO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS, SYSTEM SHOULD BE
QUASI-STATIONNARY
WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS.
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BEEING THE MAIN STEERING
INFLUENCE AND SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVOURABLE FOR REGULAR
INTENSIFICATION
WITHIN THE NEXT 3 DAYS BUT A NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT IS
FORECASTED TO BUILD IN THE WEST AHEAD OF A TUTT.
ON AND AFTER TAU 84, SYSTEM SHOULD UNDERGO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARDS AND IS THEREFORE EXPECTED
TO
RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS.
AVAILABLE NWP MODEL'S SPREAD IS LARGE , DESPITE A GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR A SOUTHWARDS TRACK, SOME OF THEM TRACK WEST OF 60E AND
THE
OTHER EAST OF 60E.
ACTUAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SLOWED DOWN COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS ONE
IN
RELATIONSHIP WITH THE LAST AVAILABLE RUNS.
FORECASTS BEYOND TAU 72H.
096H: 2010/02/19 12 UTC: 16.5S/59.7E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
120H: 2010/02/05 12 UTC: 18.4S/58.1E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP.
STORM
.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Looking better

[HURAKAN]

15/1430 UTC 9.8S 58.6E T1.5/1.5 91S -- Southwest Indian

25 knots

[HURAKAN]

Area of convection continues to increase

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7S
58.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5S 58.6E, APPROXIMATELY 660 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 151042Z TRMM IMAGE DEPICT CURVED BANDING WITH THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION LOCATED WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A RIDGE AXIS IS PROVIDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND WEAK TO MODERATE EQUATORWARD VENTING. POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS
STRENGTHENED DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
DUE TO GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 156
WTIO30 FMEE 151825
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/12/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12
2.A POSITION 2010/02/15 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.0S / 59.3E
(TEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST
)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/02/16 06 UTC: 11.0S/59.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
24H: 2010/02/16 18 UTC: 12.1S/60.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2010/02/17 06 UTC: 12.9S/60.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2010/02/17 18 UTC: 13.8S/60.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2010/02/18 06 UTC: 14.5S/60.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2010/02/18 18 UTC: 15.4S/60.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE RECENT PAST 6 HOURS
IN
THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM.
UNDER TWO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS, SYSTEM HAS REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONNARY
WITHIN THE LAST 6 HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR REGULAR INTENSIFICATION
WITHIN THE NEXT 3 DAYS. BEYOND A NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT
IS
FORECASTED TO BUILD IN THE WEST AHEAD OF A TUTT.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BECOMING THE MAIN
STEERING INFLUENCE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SYSTEM IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED
TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS DURING 48 TO 72 HOURS.
BEYOND, SYSTEM SHOULD UNDERGO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARDS AND IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO RECURVE
SOUTHWESTWARDS.
AVAILABLE NWP MODEL'S SPREAD IS LARGE , DESPITE A GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR A SOUTHWARDS TRACK, SOME OF THEM TRACK WEST OF 60E AND
THE
OTHER EAST OF 60E.
FORECASTS BEYOND TAU 72H :
096H: 2010/02/19 18 UTC: 17.2S/59.9E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
120H: 2010/02/05 12 UTC: 18.9S/58.2E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP.
STORM
.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 101
WTIO30 FMEE 160040
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/12/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12
2.A POSITION 2010/02/16 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.1S / 59.4E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 120 SE: 090 SO: NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 350 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/02/16 12 UTC: 12.2S/59.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2010/02/17 00 UTC: 13.3S/59.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2010/02/17 12 UTC: 14.1S/59.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2010/02/18 00 UTC: 14.5S/59.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2010/02/18 12 UTC: 14.9S/60.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2010/02/19 00 UTC: 15.6S/60.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-
CONVECTION ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED DURING THE RECENT PAST 6 HOURS.
SYSTEM SHOWS A CURVED BAND PATTERN NOW.
ACCORDING TO THE LAST ASCAT WINDS DATA (15/02 AT 1721Z), THE
WINDFIELD
PATTERN IS STILL ASYMMETRIC WITH STRONGER WINDS EAST OF THE LLCC.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR REGULAR INTENSIFICATION
WITHIN THE NEXT 3 DAYS. BEYOND A NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT
IS
FORECASTED TO BUILD IN THE WEST AHEAD OF A TUTT.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF
THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IN ITS NORTH-EAST.
BEYOND, SYSTEM SHOULD UNDERGO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARDS AND IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO RECURVE
SOUTHWESTWARDS.
LAST AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TRACK, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AROUND 72TAU, AS THE STEERING
FLOWS WILL CHANGE.
FORECASTS BEYOND TAU 72H :
096H: 2010/02/20 00 UTC: 16.7S/59.8E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
120H: 2010/02/21 00 UTC: 18.5S/58.3E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP.
STORM
.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTXS21 PGTW 152230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
085 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.6S 58.9E TO 13.2S 60.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
151800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.9S
59.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5S
58.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 59.0E, APPROXIMATELY 650 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
AN INCREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION WITHIN THE PAST SIX HOURS, AND A
151318Z SSMIS SHOWS ORGANIZING CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). IN ADDITION, A 151719Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS
A WELL-ORGANIZED AND TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LLCC WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30
KNOTS. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, FMEE, AND KNES ALSO CONFIRM A 30
KNOT SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS, WHICH IS PROVIDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND IMPROVING OUTFLOW. A TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IS PROVIDING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS WELL. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (29
DEGREES CELSIUS), LOW VWS, AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
162230Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

15/1900 UTC 10.5S 59.3E T2.0/2.0 91S -- Southwest Indian

30 knots

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 11.0S 59.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 59.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 12.1S 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 13.1S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 13.7S 60.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 14.3S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.1S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.2S 60.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.1S 59.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 59.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 645 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A MID-LATITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING TO THE SOUTHWEST IS PROVIDING A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, BUT MAY ALSO BE HINDERING INTENSIFICATION.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. IT IS BASED ON A
152131Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE AND ANIMATION OF INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND FMEE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. TC 16P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) AND BY TAU
72, SHOULD BEGIN TO BE STEERED TO THE SOUTHWEST BY A STRENGTHENING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 16P IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO INTENSIFY DUE TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH, BUT THEN WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY, AS THE TROUGH
TRANSITS DOWNSTREAM AND/OR FILLS, REACHING A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 90
KNOTS BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 9
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z.THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 152230ZFEB 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 152230).//
NNNN

[HurricaneBill]

And the SWIO wakes up from its nap.

[HURAKAN]

Looking great

[HURAKAN]

16/0230 UTC 11.7S 59.6E T2.5/2.5 16S -- Southwest Indian

35 knots

[HURAKAN]

16/0830 UTC 12.2S 60.2E T3.0/3.0 16S -- Southwest Indian

45 knots