Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

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Ntxw
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#7361 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 16, 2010 6:21 pm

Feb 24-26 time frame still looks to be the bullseye. ECMWF has a significant storm system forming along the Texas coast with possible winter weather north of the low.
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#7362 Postby txagwxman » Tue Feb 16, 2010 9:03 pm

Japanese model:
Image
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7363 Postby iorange55 » Tue Feb 16, 2010 9:30 pm

don't get me excited :[
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#7364 Postby gofrogs2 » Tue Feb 16, 2010 9:35 pm

So my understanding is that jma is dropping about a foot on dfw for next week. hmhmhm this should be talked about.
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#7365 Postby txagwxman » Tue Feb 16, 2010 9:42 pm

Yes, but it is the Japanese model...see what the other models do overnight...ECMWF/GFS are much faster with the short-wave out of the SW.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7366 Postby Peanut432 » Tue Feb 16, 2010 9:49 pm

So are the Japanese and the ECMWF showing the same storm but on different days? I could be wrong but the one in the JAP model doesn't look like it comes in around Northern Mexico like on the ECMWF. Needless to say I'm confused :(
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#7367 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 16, 2010 10:15 pm

All of the models have a storm one fashion or another. We'll know further into details as the days come along and they latch onto an idea. You gotta take it step by step =P
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7368 Postby zaqxsw75050 » Tue Feb 16, 2010 10:28 pm

:eek: I hope the Japanese model doesn't verify... I don't want to lose power.... not fun.
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#7369 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Feb 16, 2010 11:17 pm

Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Tue Feb 16, 2010 11:27 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7370 Postby iorange55 » Tue Feb 16, 2010 11:22 pm

Also shows a little disturbance hanging around in the cold air next week. Lol hmmm. I'm liking the trend. Dundundun
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7371 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 16, 2010 11:34 pm

South and S\E Texas should be happy if 0z verifies

156hr

Image

162hr

Image
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7372 Postby orangeblood » Tue Feb 16, 2010 11:54 pm

The GFS still doesn't look right but it's starting to come in line with the UKMET and Japanese models. The GFS has been known to not handle numerous branches very well. So there will more than likely be crazy run to run inconsistencies with this model. Matter of fact I don't think I would even bother paying attention to this model during the pattern we're going into, until around 3 days out.
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#7373 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 17, 2010 1:46 am

144-168 EC tonight looks very good if you want a Texas winter weather event.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7374 Postby iorange55 » Wed Feb 17, 2010 1:55 am

Wow it does! What an amazing winter this is. If this comes to verify.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7375 Postby somethingfunny » Wed Feb 17, 2010 2:19 am

zaqxsw75050 wrote::eek: I hope the Japanese model doesn't verify... I don't want to lose power.... not fun.


Oh, how quickly times change....

I might start a poll thread asking Texans and Oklahomans (those of us from Hillsboro northward) if we would like to see more snow again this winter. I want lots more. :D

I don't mean to belittle your experience with being out of power on a freezing cold night of course, that had to have been horrible. But I have to say I really enjoyed building a snowman with friends and family in the dark as the green flashes of transformers blowing lit up the sky and snow continued to fall Thursday night. Truly, something I may never see again, so I cherish the memory.

Maybe we could just get 3-5 inches next time. That would be better.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7376 Postby wxman57 » Wed Feb 17, 2010 6:35 am

Actually, the 00Z GFS doesn't show too much of interest for SE TX. Just a trace of precip with temps in the upper 30s at the surface. 156-hr forecast sounding indicates that the trace of precip could fall as sleet, though. But then, every single run is different, so the chances of GFS being right on THIS run are slim.

Image
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7377 Postby Portastorm » Wed Feb 17, 2010 6:51 am

Oh baby ... look at that 0z Euro run!! :P

If that verifies next week, Portastorm FINALLY gets his winter. (Portastorm with fingers crossed).

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/ecmwfloop.html
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7378 Postby Portastorm » Wed Feb 17, 2010 7:13 am

Lots of discussion from the morning AFDs out of Texas NWSFOs regarding next week. Here’s a sampling:

Corpus Christi
MODELS SEEM TO BE SETTLING ON SUN NIGHT FOR THE NEXT FROPA. THE GFS
SCOURS MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT DUE TO
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE
BACKED AND THEREFORE SHOWS PRECIP W/ FROPA. FOR NOW KEPT A SLT CHC
OF SHRA W/ THE FROPA. MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER W/ THIS FROPA
AND EVEN SHOW POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER TEXAS SNOW EVENT. GIVEN
THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND STRONG LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY
DURING THIS PERIOD...HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM THE GFS MOS TEMPS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH SHOULD NOTE THAT THESE NUMBERS ARE
MUCH TOO WARM IF CURRENT DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS PAN OUT.

Midland/Odessa
IN ADDITION...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA MONDAY. WE HAVE DECREASED MAX TEMPS FOR
MONDAY...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED SLIGHTLY DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. MENTIONABLE POPS HAVE ALSO BEEN INCLUDED
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A YET ANOTHER MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NEARS WEST TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST IT WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Amarillo
KEPT THE EXTENDED PERIOD
DRY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE ECMWF BRINGS A SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY. THE GEM KEEP THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN BAJA CA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND IS SLOWER WITH
THE TIMING AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
DOES NOT REFLECT THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ON THE 00Z RUN. BOTH THE
GFS AND GEM KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF THE OUTLIER MODEL. FEEL THAT A
SLOWER...DEEPER AND FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION THE BEST FORECAST FOR NOW.

Fort Worth
BEYOND MONDAY...GLOBAL GUIDANCE DIVERGES MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE
FAVORED ECMWF PINCHES OFF A PIECE OF EASTERN PACIFIC
ENERGY...MERGES IT WITH THE TROF OVER THE WESTERN US AND CLOSES OFF
AN UPPER LOW. THIS IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE THERE IS SOME FAIRLY
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH SOME AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. THE EC MAY BE A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE BUT
THE GENERAL IDEA IS SHARED BY SEVERAL OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS HANDLES THE EAST PACIFIC ENERGY DIFFERENTLY AND
THEREFORE IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WESTERN US TROF LEAVING N
TX DRY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SOME COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE BUT WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL WE CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
UPPER PATTERN.

AND FINALLY...THERE IS SOME VERY COLD AIR ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
CANADA THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL CANADA BY THE
WEEKEND. DESPITE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES...THERE IS A
GENERAL CONSENSUS TO DAMPEN THE WESTERN CANADA RIDGING BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THEREBY MAKING IT LESS LIKELY THAT A CHUNK OF
THIS VERY COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TO HEAD SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

San Angelo
FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
BY MONDAY. SOME CONFIDENCE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME DECENTLY COLD
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERALL PATTERN...EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...HAS BEEN A CLASSIC SIGNAL
FOR ARCTIC INTRUSION INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Houston/Galveston
MON THROUGH WED...AT THIS POINT MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WHERE THE ECMWF HOLDS BACK A TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SW WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. A LOT OF THIS DEPENDS ON
HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE OMEGA BLOCK/SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AND HOW
ANY SHORTWAVES PASS UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. THIS MAKES
THE EXTENDED FORECAST RATHER TRICKY SO FOR NOW WILL COVER TUE/WED
WITH 20 POPS. THE REAL FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL ALSO BE PRECIP
TYPE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS KEEP A FAIRLY COLD AIRMASS OVER TX
DURING THIS TIME. THE GFS BRINGS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
SE TX AROUND 12Z TUE WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING A TRANSITION
OF RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN...FORECAST WILL KEEP WITH RAIN BUT SHOULD THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO
BE UPDATED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A 6-12 HR PERIOD OF FROZEN
PRECIP DURING TUE MORNING. WITH THAT SAID...PRECIP STILL COULD BE
SHIFTED TO WED IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. STILL AGAIN WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE COLD AIRMASS...COULD SEE
FROZEN PRECIP BEING A POSSIBILITY STILL. THE MAIN POINT OF ALL OF
THIS IS THAT THE MODELS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WINTER PRECIP EVENT FOR SE TX NEXT TUE/WED.
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#7379 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 17, 2010 7:26 am

:uarrow: At least FW mentions it. But again, look at how they are so dependent on the GFS lol. Compared to everyone else.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7380 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Feb 17, 2010 8:17 am

The day crew at HPC will update shortly, but worth posting the HPC night shift thoughts...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
400 AM EST WED FEB 17 2010

VALID 12Z SUN FEB 21 2010 - 12Z WED FEB 24 2010


USED THE 00Z/17 ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR
DAYS 3-5...WITH AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 ECMWF AND 12Z/16 ECENS
MEAN DAYS 6 AND 7. THE 00Z/17 ECMWF...GEFS MEAN...AND 12Z/16
ECENS MEAN CLUSTER WELL WITH MOST OF THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD...FAR AND AWAY BETTER THAN THE
DISPARATE SOLUTIONS OF THE 00Z/17 DETERMINISTIC GFS...GEM
GLOBAL...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE UKMET. THE UKMET SUPPORTS THE
ECMWF WITH BOTH THE CHUNK OF POLAR AIR PULLED INTO THE SOUTHWEST
DAY 5...AS WELL AS THE MORE SUPPRESSED TRACK OF THE MAJOR WAVE
CROSSING THE EAST LATE DAY 5 INTO DAY 6. BLENDED THE ECMWF WITH
ITS MOST RECENT MEAN THE LAST TWO DAYS TO MITIGATE THE LATITUDE AT
WHICH THE CYCLONE PASSES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST DAY 6...AS WELL AS
EVEN OUT THE LATITUDE OF THE NEXT WAVE OF PACIFIC ENERGY
APPROACHING NORTH AMERICA DAY 7. THE GFS AND GEM GLOBAL LOOK
SUSPECT WITH THE RUSH OF LOW PRESSURE UP THE OHIO VALLEY MID
PERIOD...CONSIDERING THE BLOCKY FLOW REGIME WHICH HAS HELD MOST OF
THE WINTER. THE SYSTEM CROSSING THE EAST LATE DAY 5 INTO DAY 6
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO HIGHLY IMPACT SOME OF THE AREAS ALREADY HIT
BY MAJOR SNOWSTORMS THIS SEASON.


CISCO
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