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Macrocane
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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3741 Postby Macrocane » Mon Feb 15, 2010 12:28 pm

As I told you yesterday San Salvador experienced its lowest temperature since January 15 (17 °C or 62.6 °F), the lowest temperature of the country was 9.0 °C (48 °F) in Las Pilas (in the northern mountains of El Salvador). Here you can see the observations for Guatemala city and Tegucigalpa as well: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=1966441#p1966441
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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3742 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 15, 2010 2:28 pm

Aternoon discussion by NWS San Juan


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST MON FEB 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...ALTHOUGH MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY EAST...IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
LOCALLY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAINTAINING A GENERALLY
FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD MAINTAIN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY THURSDAY TOO. STILL EXPECT A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TOMORROW (TUESDAY)...BUT IT SHOULD NOT
RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS OR SHOWERS.
ALSO...ALTHOUGH STILL DO NOT EXPECT ANY REAL PROBLEMS FROM
THEM...WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES OR SHEAR LINES PASSING BY MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK...WITH AN APPROACHING
BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF
MOVING CLOSE TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

ALSO...PULSES OF LONG PERIOD...NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONALLY MAKING FOR
LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AND A HIGHER THAN NORMAL
LIKELIHOOD OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...ONLY OPERATIONAL CONCERN NEXT 24 HOURS IS AREA OF
WEAK REMNANT VOLCANIC ASH CLOUD NOTABLE ON SAT IMAGERY ORIENTED
N/S IN A LINE CURRENTLY DIRECTLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO
RICO AS OF 18Z. VAAC PRODUCTS PLACE A LINE OF VA FROM MONTSERRAT
TOWARDS TISX...BUT WITH WESTERN MOST EXTENT MORE THAN 50 NM FROM
THAT SITE. BOTTOM LINE IS VERY DIFFUSE ASH TODAY MAINLAND PR
LIKELY NEAR TJSJ FROM 18-24Z...MAKING ITS WAY TO TJBQ BY 06Z...
BUT NOT SUFFICIENT CONCENTRATION FOR MENTION IN TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. PULSES OF LONG PERIOD...NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS...WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR LOCALLY ROUGH
MARINE CONDITIONS. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS TONIGHT.
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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3743 Postby Macrocane » Mon Feb 15, 2010 8:19 pm

Good evening. The SNET has has issued the first special report about the incidence of a cold front in El Salvador, according to the forecast this could be the strongest cold front since the second week of January, here is the link (in Spanish): http://www.snet.gob.sv/ver/meteorologia/informes+especiales/

Translation:

Description of the event: A cold front will move into the Caribbean in association with a 1026 high pressure that will extend a ridge over Central America and will produce moderate to strong northerly winds in the country.

Forecast

The rest of Monday February 15: the easterly flow from the Caribbean sea will produce cloudiness and light rains in the north of the country.

Tuesday February 16 2010: weak to moderate northerly winds in the 15-30 km/h (9-19 mph) range are expected with gusts up to 40 km/h (25 mph).

Wednesday February 17 2010: Moderate to strong northerly winds will persist in the 20-35 km/h (13-22 mph) range and gusts up to 60 km/h (38 mph), stronger gusts cannot be ruled out especially in high areas. Lowered temperatures are expected.
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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3744 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 16, 2010 6:32 am

Good morning to all.

Dry weather,warmer than usual temperatures and the faint ash continues.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
431 AM AST TUE FEB 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION AND WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NOTED
IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...WHERE MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT FOR A FEW PASSING CLOUD FRAGMENTS
AND MOSTLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
A BAND OF TRADE WIND MOSTLY MID LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...ALONG
OLD CONVERGENT ZONE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS ANTILLES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL TRANSPORT THIN PATCHES OF
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WHILE THE
PREVAILING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST TRADES WILL BRING FRAGMENTS OF
SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT MOST OF THE ACCOMPANYING
LIGHT SHOWERS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO...AND PARTS OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS WOULD BE AFFECTED BY MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THIS MORNING.

EXPECT LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY...AS HOT AND
FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. IN THE LONG TERM...LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THE GRADUAL SINKING OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS A FAIRLY STRONG AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF NORTH OF AREA AND
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS WEST ATLANTIC. THIS HOWEVER IS STILL SOME
WAYS OUT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE HOW THE WEATHER
PATTERN UNFOLDS WITH TIME BEFORE MAKING ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO
THE PRESENT "DRY" WEATHER FORECAST WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
EMISSIONS OF ASH AND STEAM FROM MONTSERRAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY
STEER SOME OF THIS ASH CLOSER TO THE LOCAL TAF SITES...BUT THESE
EMISSIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND PLUME SHOULD BE DIFFUSE. SOME
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR IN PUERTO RICO AFTER 16/16Z WITH
MVFR POSSIBLE IN TJMZ UNTIL 16/22Z DUE TO CEILINGS.


&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. PULSES OF LONG PERIOD...NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS...WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT...MAKING FOR LOCALLY ROUGH
MARINE CONDITIONS. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD THEREFORE EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AS
WELL AS LOCAL PASSAGES TODAY.

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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3745 Postby Macrocane » Tue Feb 16, 2010 8:28 am

Good morning. The northerly winds have not arrived yet to El Salvador but it's just a question of time. Here is what the TWD says about the cold front:

GAP WINDS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT HAS MOVED RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
STRONG HIGH PRES HAS BUILT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND STRONG NLY
FLOW IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE ON THU.

ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST...ELY WINDS OF 20 KT
CONTINUES OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL BE
REINFORCED BY THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AS IT CONTINUES TO SHIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
IN THE GULF OF FONSECA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 20 KT AS
THE FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS...INCREASING THE
WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF FONSECA.
MEANWHILE...FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL
INTO TO THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3746 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 16, 2010 3:08 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
129 PM AST TUE FEB 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WILL
HOLD STRONG ACROSS THE REGION OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS WHILE BROAD
TROUGH DOMINATES ERN NOAM AND THE WRN ATLC. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LOCAL WATERS FRIDAY AND
LINGER TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY PERSISTENT PATTERN TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEK AS SUBTROP RIDGE REMAINS JUST EAST OF AREA AND ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM SWINGS OUT INTO THE SW ATLC. VERY LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS RIDGE DOMINATES PATTERN WITH VERY
MINIMAL CHANCES OF PRECIP IF ANY EACH DAY. BY FRIDAY EURO MODEL
MODEL SHOWS FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGRESSING INTO CENTRAL ATLC WITH TAIL
END STALLING NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. INDUCED PRE FRONTAL
TROUGHING WILL WEAKEN WINDS AND ALLOW FOR SOME CONVERGENCE AND
DESTABILIZATION AT THE LOWER LEVELS FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO BE OVER ATLC COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF PR...WITH MOST LAND AREAS LOOKING TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY AT THIS POINT.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS AT ALL TAF SITES. HI RES
MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS THIN ASH MOVING NW FROM THE VOLCANO BUT STAYING
SOUTH OF TKPK. WILL NOT FCST ANY ASH FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...STILL EXPERIENCING SOME REMNANT NORTHERLY 6 FOOT SWELL AT
ABOUT 11 SEC FROM THE WEEKENDS EVENT. THESE SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO
VERY SLOWLY DECREASE IN HEIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN
A BATCH OF EXTREMELY LONG PERIOD SWELL AT 16 SECONDS ARRIVES FROM
THE ENE. THOSE SWELLS WILL BE VERY INSIGNIFICANT IN THE OPEN
WATERS DUE TO SWELL HEIGHT OF ONLY ABOUT 4 FEET...BUT DUE TO THE
VERY LONG PERIOD NATURE WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE BREAKERS OF
AROUND 8 FEET FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
ALONG THE NORTHERN REEFS. AFTERWARD...A NEW BATCH OF LONG PERIOD
NWLY SWELL COMES IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT AROUND 11 SEC BUT STILL
ONLY UP TO 5 FOOT OF SWELL WITH THAT BATCH. FOR THE WEEKEND A MORE
ORGANIZED SWELL OF 6 TO 10 FOOT ARRIVES FROM THE NW.
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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3747 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 17, 2010 6:34 am

Good morning to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST WED FEB 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA AS MODERATE MID LATITUDE TROUGHS AND RIDGES MOVE EASTWARD
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE
BRUSHES THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MID
LEVELS REMAIN OTHERWISE DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONT OVER
EASTERN CUBA WILL SAG TOWARD THE AREA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER THE WEEKEND. FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
IS 20 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS AND WILL HAVE A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE FORECASTING A DROP IN THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER TODAY TO BELOW ONE INCH. SOUNDER INDICATES THAT THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS FALLEN FROM ABOUT 1.45 INCHES AT 16/20Z TO
1.10 INCHES AT 17/09Z AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER
TO THE AREA FROM YESTERDAY...DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WITH FRAGMENTS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT
WILL SAG TOWARD THE AREA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY...BUT NEITHER WIDESPREAD
NOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. AFTER STALLING OVER THE
WEEKEND NEAR THE ISLANDS THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AND TAKE WITH
IT EVEN THE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WERE POSSIBLE WHILE IT WAS
NEAR. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER...AT LEAST UP TO THE
LAST WEEKEND OF THE MONTH.

TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY REACH 90 DEGREES IN THE METRO AREA OF SAN
JUAN OR ITS ENVIRONS...THIS WOULD TIE THE RECORD FOR THE DATE SET
IN 1991.


&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR IN PUERTO RICO AFTER 17/16Z
WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN TJBQ AND TJMZ UNTIL 17/22Z DUE TO CEILINGS.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE TO THE PASSAGE OF ASH FROM
MONTSERRAT THROUGH SAINT KITTS AND POSSIBLY SAINT MARTIN UNTIL
FRIDAY MORNING. ASH CONCENTRATIONS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
EMISSIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SWELL EXCEEDING 16 SECONDS SHOULD BEGIN SHORTLY
ACCORDING TO WAVE WATCH III...BUT HAVE NOT YET APPEARED AT BUOY
41043. SHORTER PERIOD SWELL OF 10 SECONDS AND ALMOST 5 FEET HAVE
ARRIVED. SEAS WILL INCREASE SLOWLY IN THE ATLANTIC AND CONNECTING
PASSAGE`S TO 7 TO 8 FEET BY SATURDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS IN
THE CARIBBEAN.

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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3748 Postby Macrocane » Wed Feb 17, 2010 8:21 am

Good morning. Northerly winds continue in El Salvador and lowered temperatures have been present overnight and this morning. Later today I will post some observations. Here is what the East Pacific TWD says about these winds:

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT HAS
GENERATED THE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS
SHIFTED E AND IS NOW ALONG E HONDURAS. WINDS HAVE FUNNELED INTO
THE GULF OF FONSECA AND 20 KT WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE
AREA. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WED INTO THU...AND WILL PEAK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH DRAINAGE FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO THE WINDS. WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF FONSECA WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT ON THU.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDEP+shtml/170952.shtml?
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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3749 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 17, 2010 3:16 pm

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
221 PM AST WED FEB 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS REGION BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD POLAR TROUGH
ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. A FRONT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT AND MEANDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. LOCAL OBS SHOW A SHARP DROP OFF OF PW VALUES WITH SOUNDING
COMING IN AT 1.13 INCHES AND TPW IMAGERY WELL BELOW THAT. VERY HOT
AND DRY FOR FEBRUARY WITH SAN JUAN REACHING 91 DEGREES
TODAY...JUST A DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD...AS DEW POINTS DIPPED DOWN
TO AROUND 60.

SUBTROP RIDGE REMAINS JUST EAST OF AREA AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO ELONGATE AND STALL TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA. OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS INDUCED WEAK TROUGHING AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP WINDS VERY LIGHT AS PIECES OF MOISTURE
FROM THE FRONT WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN PORTION OF CWA. STILL NOT
EXPECTING A LARGE INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE...BUT LOWER LEVELS
WILL DESTABILIZE ALLOWING FOR SOME CONVECTION IN AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. BEST CHANCE FOR MOISTURE/DYNAMICS TO MAKE IT
THIS FAR SOUTH WILL BE ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS SATURDAY...BUT STILL
TALKING ABOUT ONLY SCT COVERAGE. LATER INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL LINGER NORTH OF AREA AND WILL BE VERY
HARD TO PREDICT EXACTLY WHERE AT THIS POINT...BUT CHANCES ARE
DECENT FOR CLOUDIER CONDITIONS WITH ISO TO SCT COVERAGE ALONG THE
NORTH COAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS AT ALL TAF SITES. LATEST VIS
IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN ASH PLUME EXTENDING NW FROM SUMMIT AND
AFFECTING TKPK SO HAVE INCLUDED VA FOR THEM.


&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41403 SHOWING VERY LONG PERIOD...BUT ONLY 1.5
METER SWELL IS LIKELY JUST ABOUT TO HIT THAT SITE...AND SHOULD
REACH NORTHERN COASTLINES TONIGHT. SWELLS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
BREAKING WAVES OF 5 TO 8 FEET ALONG NORTHERN REEFS AND SHOALS. BY
TOMORROW THOSE SWELLS WILL BE GONE...AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY CALM UNTIL NEXT SET OF NWLY SWELLS ARRIVE MID DAY
FRIDAY. THAT WILL BE A MORE AVERAGE WINTER SWELL OF ABOUT 2.5
METERS AT 10 TO 12 SECONDS. LIKELY TO RESULT IN HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY AND LAST FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS.
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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3750 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 18, 2010 6:41 am

Good morning to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST THU FEB 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES ALMOST UNCHANGED THROUGH THE
NEXT 10 DAYS BY THE PASSAGE OF MID-LATITUDE LONG-WAVE TROUGHS AND
RIDGES TO THE NORTH.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS
EASTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH THE
NEXT 10 DAYS. GRADIENTS TIGHTEN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA DUE TO LOWER
PRESSURE AND TRANSIENT LOW CENTERS IN THE WEST ATLANTIC. MOISTURE
LEVELS IN THE LOCAL AREA ARE VERY LOW EXCEPT ON SUNDAY AND THE
FOLLOWING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN THE MODEST MOISTURE FROM NEARBY
FRONTS IS ENCOUNTERED.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH AS IT
ROTATES TO A MORE EAST-WEST POSITION. IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
THEN LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND STALL FOR THE NEXT
5 DAYS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA IS MOVING OUT
OF EASTERN CUBA AND INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. BOTH THE GFS AND
THE NAM FORECAST THIS FRONT TO STALL OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS FRIDAY
AND SLOWLY WEAKEN IN PLACE OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL COME INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND MAY HOLD MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND SOME MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAN THE PREVIOUS FRONT. CURRENTLY IT IS UNCLEAR THAT THE
FRONT NOW OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO
PUERTO RICO`S ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT MORE
PROGRESS MAY BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MODELS KEEP THE
FRONT NORTH OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT PRECIPITABLE
WATER HAS BEEN INCREASING THE LAST 14 HOURS...SINCE 17/18Z...AND
THIS MATCHES THE INFLUX SHOWN BY THE NAM WHICH BRINGS IN A AND
EXTENDED LONG PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS SAINT
CROIX. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS IN THIS AREA
AT THE PRESENT MOMENT BUT NOT IN THE QUANTITY THAT THE MODEL IS
DEPICTING. THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED THE POPS SOMEWHAT OVER THE
MAINLAND TODAY AND TOMORROW...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND FRIDAY AS MID AND LOWER CLOUDS EXTEND EASTWARD TOWARD
THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RAIN DECREASES CONSIDERABLY UNTIL MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND THE
NEXT FRONT.


&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR IN PUERTO RICO AFTER 18/16Z
WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN TJMZ...AND TJBQ BETWEEN 18/17-22Z DUE TO CEILINGS. VA
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS TKPK TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...NEXST SWELL EVENT WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE...BUT EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE ATLANTIC AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. MODELS DO NOT BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BACK
BY THE FOLLOWING THURSDAY.

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#3751 Postby Gustywind » Thu Feb 18, 2010 7:54 am

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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3752 Postby Macrocane » Thu Feb 18, 2010 8:09 am

Good morning! The cold front has moved into the Caribbean sea but the high pressure system is still bringing cool air and winds to Central America. This morning San Salvador registered 17 °C (62 °F) and with the wind I can tell it feels rather chilly. Here is what the East Pacific TWD says today:

A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA IS CONTINUING
TO FUNNEL NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT IN THE E PACIFIC ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE PASSES OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA
RICA. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLS OUT AND LINGERS IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN SEA AS A SHEAR LINE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AIDE OF ENHANCED
DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE ADJACENT LANDMASS. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT
ARE ALSO AFFECTING THE GULF OF FONSECA...THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDEP+shtml/180931.shtml?

And this are some photos that I took this morning, the cool air and the winds can produce beautiful skies:

Image

Image

I took more pictures but I will post them on the "Central american cold surges" thread in the weekend.
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#3753 Postby Gustywind » Thu Feb 18, 2010 10:01 am

The severe drought is continuing in Guadeloupe. I have no water in my locality since yesterday 10AM (so 1 day without water :eek:). Numerous wateroutages are pretty frequent, not an easy situation but let's keep our fingers crossed islanders... :roll:
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Re:

#3754 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 18, 2010 10:27 am

Gustywind wrote:The severe drought is continuing in Guadeloupe. I have no water in my locality since yesterday 10AM (so 1 day without water :eek:). Numerous wateroutages are pretty frequent, not an easy situation but let's keep our fingers crossed islanders... :roll:


Here in Puerto Rico is the same dry situation in this month after a record rainfall January.Hopefully our rainy season that starts on full swing in May brings relieve to the islands.

http://www.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=sju

Code: Select all

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
..................................................................

PRECIPITATION (IN)
  YESTERDAY        0.02          2.13 1989   0.08  -0.06     0.00
  MONTH TO DATE    0.10                      1.47  -1.37     3.10
  SINCE DEC 1     13.00                      9.06   3.94    10.17
  SINCE JAN 1     11.17                      4.49   6.68     5.59
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Re: Re:

#3755 Postby Gustywind » Thu Feb 18, 2010 1:22 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Gustywind wrote:The severe drought is continuing in Guadeloupe. I have no water in my locality since yesterday 10AM (so 1 day without water :eek:). Numerous wateroutages are pretty frequent, not an easy situation but let's keep our fingers crossed islanders... :roll:


Here in Puerto Rico is the same dry situation in this month after a record rainfall January.Hopefully our rainy season that starts on full swing in May brings relieve to the islands.

http://www.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=sju

Code: Select all

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
..................................................................

PRECIPITATION (IN)
  YESTERDAY        0.02          2.13 1989   0.08  -0.06     0.00
  MONTH TO DATE    0.10                      1.47  -1.37     3.10
  SINCE DEC 1     13.00                      9.06   3.94    10.17
  SINCE JAN 1     11.17                      4.49   6.68     5.59

Absolutely Luis, you're definitely right, let's hope that... :)
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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3756 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 18, 2010 3:59 pm

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

Good news about ending the current dry spell as it looks like the front will stall just north or over PR.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
347 PM AST THU FEB 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC SOUTH INTO
THE GREATER ANTILLES INTO NEXT WEEK. A CDFNT EXTENDING FROM THE
CNTRL ATLC SW INTO HISPANIOLA WILL STALL N OF PR OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS SEEN ON
LATEST TPW IMAGERY WITH PWAT VALUES UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES OR ABOUT
HALF INCH HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO. CONVERGENCE LINE/SHEAR LINE SEEN
ON VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM NW OF AGUADILLA TO THE EAST OF PUNTA CANA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO OUR ATLC COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE CAP THAT WAS IN PLACE YESTERDAY IS NOW GONE AS SEEN ON
LATEST AMDAR DATA. ALTHOUGH NO CONVECTION TO SPEAK OF YET MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT ALG
THE NORTH COAST AS SHEARLINE ENTERS THE AREA AND MID LEVELS
DESTABILIZE.

OVER THE WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST FRONT STALLING JUST
NORTH OF PR. STRONG JET TO THE NORTH OF THIS BDRY WILL SUSTAIN
FRONT`S BAROCLINICITY WITH FRONT LIKELY TO REMAIN INTACT AND STICK
AROUND FOR SVRL DAYS. MODELS ALSO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE POOLING ALG
SFC BDRY WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES AND K INDICES UP
TO 32. WITH UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES FCST TO ROTATE AROUND MEAN
UPPER TROF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ANTICIPATE LOTS OF CLOUDS WITH
FREQ SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALG THE NORTH COAST. LOOKS LIKE WE COULD
SEE SVRL PERIODS OF ORGANIZED RAINFALL BUT TRYING TO TIME THESE
AND INDIVIDUAL UPPER AIR PERTUBATIONS/SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE A
BIG CHALLENGE IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE TRENDED FCST MUCH
CLOUDIER AND WETTER FROM PREVIOUS FCSTS.

MODELS SHOW FRONT FINALLY DISSIPATING AROUND TUE OF NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A DRIER TREND FOR THE AREA MID WEEK BUT ANOTHER POSSIBLY
STRONGER FRONT IS FCST TO APPROACH THE AREA NEXT THU. HOWEVER THIS
DOES NOT HAVE MUCH SUPPORT FROM GFES ENSEMBLES ATTM SO WOULDN`T
PUT TOO MUCH WEIGHT ON OP MODELS THIS FAR OUT YET.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA AND ALL
LOCAL TAFS. NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXCEPT FOR LOCAL SEA BREEZE...A LIGHT S-SW
WIND FLOW OF 5-20KTS WILL PREVAIL BLO 15K FT... THEN BCMG WESTERLY
AND INCR WITH HEIGHT BTW 15-35K FT. LATEST MODEL FCST WINDS...SUGGEST
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT DIFFUSE AMOUNTS OF VA MAY LINGER CLOSE TO
TKPK DURG THE NEXT 24 HRS...BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW
BASED ON PRESENT VISIBLE IMAGERY. REFER TO LATEST VA ADVISORIES OR
SIGMETS FOR UPDATES.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEXT 24 HRS AS A BATCH OF
NNW SWELLS ARRIVES LATER TOMORROW.

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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3757 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 19, 2010 6:54 am

Good morning to all.Finnally the rains are here but also the swells are high.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST FRI FEB 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA BUT ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS
A WEAK BRANCH OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND STRONGER WINDS PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY APPEAR AFTER MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS
INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE CARIBBEAN MONDAY AND
REMAINS THERE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVELS
ARE MOSTLY DRY...SOME MOISTURE IS PRESENT SUNDAY...MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA...SPREADING CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND SAINT CROIX. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT OUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL UNTIL
NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTH FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND A PRE-FRONTAL
BAND OVER PUERTO RICO BROUGHT CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE AREA...WITH
ALL BUT SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO SEEING SOME
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS CLOUDY AND RAINY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE NAM CLEARS THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA EARLIER
THAN THE GFS. THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE GRIDS THIS MORNING HAS BEEN
TO CHANGE THE CHARACTER OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM SHOWERS TO RAIN
AS THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM CONSISTS OF MAINLY LOW AND MID LEVEL
STABLE TYPE CLOUDS THAT WILL SEE LITTLE CONVECTIVE FLAVOR. THIS
WILL ALSO ALLOW THE USE OF THE PHRASE `RAIN LIKELY` IN PLACE OF
`NUMEROUS SHOWERS` FOR NORTHERN ZONES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WINDS INCREASING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND DO NOT BRING THE
FRONT ACROSS LAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PASSING RAIN PATCHES DURING
THE DAY ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ...TJMZ...AND TIST.

&&

.MARINE...SWELL AT BUOY 41047 REACHED 9 FEET AT 15 SECONDS AND ARE
POINTED IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION. THIS WOULD BRING 6 FOOT SWELL
AT 18 SECOND INTERVALS INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE WAVE WATCH DOES NOT SEE THIS AND MOST SWELL ARE
FORECAST BY THE MODEL TO BE AROUND 8 FEET EVERY 11 SECONDS. EITHER
WAY THIS BRINGS IN 12 FOOT SURF WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF 18 FOOT
BREAKING WAVES IN AREAS OF STEEP BATHYMETRY. THEREFORE HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY BEGINNING AT NOON AND
LASTING AT LEAST THROUGH 6 PM ON SATURDAY. MANY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IN THE NORTHERN WATERS AND PASSAGES WILL BEGIN AT THE
SAME TIME OR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD COME DOWN ON
SATURDAY...BUT A FEW PULSES NEAR 7 FEET COME IN ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3758 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 19, 2010 6:57 am

High Surf Advisory in effect

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST FRI FEB 19 2010

...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH
6PM AST MONDAY...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-013-VIZ001-191745-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.SU.Y.0006.100219T1600Z-100222T2200Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
539 AM AST FRI FEB 19 2010

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM AST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM AST MONDAY
FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND FOR THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS...ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 12 TO 15 FEET AND LOCALLY
HIGHER...ALONG THE LOCAL REEFS...BEACHES AND SHOALS OF THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...CREATING
VERY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND FREQUENT...POTENTIALLY DEADLY
RIP CURRENTS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE STRONG AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS
WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS. THESE NARROW OUTWARD
FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS AWAY FROM THE COAST
LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO
NOT PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR BEARINGS RELATIVE
TO THE BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH. YOU WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAVE THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE ABLE
TO SAFELY SWIM TO SHORE.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS ARE
URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE
BREAKING WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF
ALL SIZES INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE
LINE AND STAY OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

THESE SURGING WAVES WILL ALSO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR BEACH
EROSION DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

THE TIMES OF THE HIGH TIDE FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR:11:51 AM AST FRIDAY MORNING AT 0.9 FEET AND 1:16
AM AST SATURDAY MORNING AT 1.3 FEET.

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS:10:25 AM AST FRIDAY MORNING AT 0.3 FEET AND
2:11 AM AST SATURDAY MORNING AT 0.6 FEET.

STAY TUNED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
SAN JUAN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.
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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3759 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 19, 2010 7:51 am

Before the front arrived here,we made it to 91F for the first time this year,unusual for Febuary.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=90degrees

At 12:31 PM AST February 17, 2010, the temperature soared to 91ºF at the Luis Muñoz Marin International Airport in San Juan. This marked the first reading of 90ºF or above in San Juan for the calendar year, and the warmest temperature recorded in San Juan since November 21st, 2009.

While this is by far not the earliest date that the temperature has reached 90ºF in San Juan during a new calendar year, it ranks as the 16th earliest date that the temperature has reached 90ºF or greater. The earliest date on record that the temperature ever reached 90ºF was January 6th, 1984 and the latest date that the temperature reached 90ºF in a given year was July 23rd, 1965.

Over the past 55 years, the average date of the first 90ºF temperature in San Juan is March 19th. While 91ºF is impressive for the middle of February, it is not unheard of. The record high temperature for February 17th is actually 92ºF. For additional statistics regarding 90ºF degree temperatures, see below.

Code: Select all

Average date of 1st 90ºF temperatue in San Juan, PR:                           March 19th

Average date of last 90ºF temperature in San Juan, PR:                         November 10th

Average number of days 90ºF or above each year in San Juan, PR:        78 days

Maximum number of days in a year 90ºF or above in San Juan, PR:       172 days (1983)

Minimum number of days in a year 90ºF or above in San Juan, PR:        14 days (1965)

Maximum consecutive days of 90ºF or above in San Juan, PR:               35 days (1981)

 

 

Top 5 Earliest and Latest dates of 1st 90ºF temperature recorded in a given year:

 

Earliest 90ºF dates Year Latest 90ºF dates Year
       
January 6th 1984 July 23rd 1965
January 9th 1958 June 7th 1967
January 11th 1982 June 3rd 1986
January 15th 1981 May 26th 2004
January 16th 1983 May 25th 1985


 

 

 
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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3760 Postby Macrocane » Fri Feb 19, 2010 9:13 am

Good morning. The northerly winds persist over Central America as well the cool air, but they are expected to end today. The strongest winds were registered yesterday and the lowest temperatures yesterday and the day before.

The strongest wind gust was registered in El Salvador International Airport it was 50 km/h (31 mph). The lowest temperature was 8.3 °C (46.9 °F) in Las Pilas (Northern El Salvador). The lowest value of temperature in San Salvador was 16.3 °C (61.3 °F). Some stations like San Salvador registered a decrease of 4°C (7.2 °F) when compared to the day before. Here is more data from the event: http://www.snet.gob.sv/ver/meteorologia/informes+especiales/verificacion/
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