Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

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gofrogs2
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#7441 Postby gofrogs2 » Wed Feb 17, 2010 9:12 pm

Yes what r u talking aobut i swear it showed tons of rains but mid fortys.
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#7442 Postby gofrogs2 » Wed Feb 17, 2010 9:13 pm

Why what is it shwoing to you guys.
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Re:

#7443 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 17, 2010 9:15 pm

gofrogs2 wrote:Why what is it shwoing to you guys.


Image

If that were true, easily 3-5 inches of snow\sleet in DFW at 5:1 ratio (typical lowest snow ratio) BTW we are referring to next Weds-Thurs time frame, not this week. Multiple Models have hinted at a potential storm\cold threat for that time frame.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7444 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 17, 2010 9:17 pm

srainhoutx wrote::uarrow: Looks very similar to a 'Pattern Changer' ( a bit different track ) in December to me... :cheesy:


Don't mess with our heads Srainhoutx! You're feeding the ever growing frenzy that's barely been fed! That's a blockbuster you're comparing to :wink:
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#7445 Postby gofrogs2 » Wed Feb 17, 2010 9:18 pm

How arent temps in the fortys.
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Re:

#7446 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 17, 2010 9:20 pm

gofrogs2 wrote:How arent temps in the fortys.

850mb 0c (freezing) line (blue line) is well south of the metroplex heading into the northern sections of central and S\E Texas. That's the interpretation of this run.
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Re:

#7447 Postby DFW Stormwatcher » Wed Feb 17, 2010 9:21 pm

gofrogs2 wrote:Why taken varbatim it shows a rain with temps 10 - 12 degrees above freezing he doesnt know what hes talking about.


eeek, I know it's a joke but he's always been pretty accurate, not to mention he's a professional. I'm sure I just took that the wrong way, I know you've been on the board for awhile. Always in for a good snowstorm:) This is already a legendary winter, another snow dump would be more than any of us could've hoped for :lol:
Last edited by DFW Stormwatcher on Wed Feb 17, 2010 9:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7448 Postby Nederlander » Wed Feb 17, 2010 9:22 pm

Look at the '0' line dude.. That's the mark for freezing weather
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7449 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Feb 17, 2010 9:22 pm

If that verifies, DFW will seriously break the seasonal snowfall record.

If not shatter it... :froze:
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7450 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Feb 17, 2010 9:23 pm

Ntxw wrote:
srainhoutx wrote::uarrow: Looks very similar to a 'Pattern Changer' ( a bit different track ) in December to me... :cheesy:


Don't mess with our heads Srainhoutx! You're feeding the ever growing frenzy that's barely been fed! That's a blockbuster you're comparing to :wink:


Let's see what the RECON data shows tonight. Got to use all the 'tools in the toolbox'... :wink:


http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... UMBLOOP=10
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#7451 Postby gofrogs2 » Wed Feb 17, 2010 9:24 pm

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#7452 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 17, 2010 9:24 pm

We should take it as a grain of salt this far out. Key to getting a correct forecast this far out is to look at the trends and patterns and the way it sets up. For days, the major global models and ensembles have all pointed a finger in a colder\snowier direction. Run to run details aren't to be taken heavily.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KFTW

tell me iam not crazy.


You shouldn't pay attention to that too much. It shifts run per run. There's a lot more to making snow/sleet than is it cold enough at the surface. The model has a climatology input to it and will get into more details as we shift closer, usually within 3-4 days out.
Last edited by Ntxw on Wed Feb 17, 2010 9:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#7453 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Feb 17, 2010 9:27 pm

Ntxw wrote:We should take it as a grain of salt this far out. Key to getting a correct forecast this far out is to look at the trends and patterns and the way it sets up. For days, the major global models and ensembles have all pointed a finger in a colder\snowier direction. Run to run details aren't to be taken heavily.


True, but we did see model support for "Snowmageddon" several days out.

And wasn't the Christmas Eve blizzard forecast by models several days in advance. I remember OUN NWS being particularly bullish on that event...Fort Worth, not so much. :D
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7454 Postby Nederlander » Wed Feb 17, 2010 9:27 pm

I'm happy for dallas and all.. But it really sucks when its 33 degrees and pouring rain here in s/e tx.. Its very depressing watching everyone else get snow and us not.. We've had three hurricanes and a tropical storm in 5 years and we deserve some snow.. But mother nature doesn't work that way I guess.. Lights out for wintry precip in s/e TX..
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Re:

#7455 Postby iorange55 » Wed Feb 17, 2010 9:28 pm

Ntxw wrote:We should take it as a grain of salt this far out. Key to getting a correct forecast this far out is to look at the trends and patterns and the way it sets up. For days, the major global models and ensembles have all pointed a finger in a colder\snowier direction. Run to run details aren't to be taken heavily.



Nice icon
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Re:

#7456 Postby Nederlander » Wed Feb 17, 2010 9:30 pm

gofrogs2 wrote:http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KFTW

tell me iam not crazy.

Check out the 25th-26th time frame
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7457 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Feb 17, 2010 9:33 pm

00Z NAM @ 54 hours...

Image
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#7458 Postby txagwxman » Wed Feb 17, 2010 9:35 pm

Nederlander wrote:I'm happy for dallas and all.. But it really sucks when its 33 degrees and pouring rain here in s/e tx.. Its very depressing watching everyone else get snow and us not.. We've had three hurricanes and a tropical storm in 5 years and we deserve some snow.. But mother nature doesn't work that way I guess.. Lights out for wintry precip in s/e TX..

At least you have gotten snow...NW side of Houston all we had is 1/2" in the last 6 years. Victoria got 14" in 2004, Downtown Houston got 2" last December. Pearland got 3-4" in 2004 and Dec 2009.

As for DFW next week it is still 7+ days away, so don't hang ur hat on that forecast yet. All I know is I like the pattern. If the trough in the Great Lakes can dig a little deeper, and the trough dig deeper across the SW next week, then the game is on.
Last edited by txagwxman on Wed Feb 17, 2010 9:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#7459 Postby wxman22 » Wed Feb 17, 2010 9:36 pm

gofrogs2 wrote:http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KFTW

tell me iam not crazy.

Not that it really maters being this far out...but if you look at the minimum temps at hour 192 you can see there in the upper 20's which means the temperature rapidly drops as cold air rushes in so what may be rain at first changes over to snow as the temperature falls...FWIW
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#7460 Postby setxweatherfreak » Wed Feb 17, 2010 9:41 pm

I have a question for anyone that can answer this..my parents live near Lawton, Ok - the last few days they have heard some rumors that they are expecting another MAJOR Ice Storm before the end of Feb. - actually predicting to be worse than they had a couple weeks ago - and my parents were without electricity for 8 days - luckly they have a propane fireplace! They are very concerned and they knew I listened to you guys...any insight?? Thanks in advance!
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