Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Nederlander]

At least the NWS is discussing its potential. I guess they dont want another episode which ends with egg on the face.

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

18z gfs is starting to come out. i hope its another great run!

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Special Weather Statement Ft Worth:

THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ON TUESDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. PRECIPITATION
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS THE REGION...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND WITH THE COLD
AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...WINTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCE...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS FUTURE DATA AND UPDATE THE FORECAST AS
MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

NORTH TEXAS RESIDENTS AND MOTORISTS TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION
ON TUESDAY SHOULD STAY INFORMED OF THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
AND FORECASTS BY VISITING OUR WEBSITE AT http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FORTWORT

They never would've put this out this soon if it wasn't for that last storm. I don't think I've ever seen them put out a special statement on a winter storm that is still 4 days off. We could always use another round of snow up here. Still got my fingers crossed for the Porta and the guys in southeast texas....it is indeed ya'lls turn. I grew up in se texas, can count the times I saw snow down there on one hand, so I feel for you. We had more than our fair share last time up here. Can't imagine we may see snow again on the hills of two rounds of snow and of course snowmageddon.

Kinda with wxman 57, never thought I would say this, but I'm ready for some warmer weather. Time to start talking about hail and tornadoes, spend my evening on the couch watching pete delkus on channel 8 follow the severe line of storms from mineral wells to rockwall and listen to my wife cursing his constant interruptions:) It's a spring ritual in this household. Only this year I'll be on this forum able to discuss it.

[Portastorm]

Conservative approach ... but no qualms from me as we still have four days to go:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
334 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2010

.DISCUSSION...
GULF MOISTURE IS BACK WITH OBSERVED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
PRIOR TO A PACIFIC (DRY) FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. UNTIL
THEN...AREAS OF NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING FOG/DRIZZLE ARE
FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY. CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH OF THE
AUSTIN METRO AREA. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINATE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED-OUT.
MOST OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BE NORTH OF OUR AREA. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES DIP TO BETWEEN 20-25 PERCENT AND 20FT WINDS INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 MPH. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW DOWN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY COLDER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. OF THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE GFS WAS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW EARLY TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. OUR FORECAST TO WILL BE CLOSE TO
THE GFS...BUT WILL ADVERTISE RAIN AND/OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO LACK OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THAT
PROJECTION. SNOW IS ALMOST CERTAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA BETWEEN
LUBBOCK...JUNCTION AND EAST TOWARD THE DFW METROPLEX. LITTLE-TO-NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AFTER
THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

[txwxwatcher]

I would just be careful about making too much out of the projections at this point. As others have alluded to, the timing, location, precip-type, and amounts will be greatly influenced by where along the west coast the low makes landfall. Yesterday it was projected to make landfall as far north as the California/Oregon border, but today it is projected to move onshore closer to the San Diego area. That is quite a divergent forecast in a 24-hour time span.

As Wxman said, nothing is certain, but you can certainly make a forecast 3-4 days out especially when the models have begun to diverge/agree on a solution as they did today. That's a big hint that things are getting clearer.

Completely agree with you there, Ntxw. A fair amount of Texas definitely looks to be in store for some accumulating snow. It was the projected snowfall amounts/graphs and the precise rain/snow line that I was mainly thinking about.

[wxman57]

Say for instance that someone in Waco wants a mega blizzard, where do I want which of those Lows ^^^to go compared to their current placement on that graphic?

Moisture isn't the problem, whether the low is in Salado or DFW waco gets a lot of precip. It's the position of the cold air. Generally the north and western flanks of lows are the coldest parts to the storms.

Well ... also keep in mind that the map only shows surface lows. What would probably give Waco and Austin sleet or snow will be the upper level trough which swings through the state per the models.

Also keep in mind that the map posted above only shows THIS WEEKEND's LOW track across Texas, not next week's snowstorm low. That one is off the west U.S. Coast.

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

good for my home town of san antonio! i hope they end up getting some snow; i know my little sisters would love to play with our dog in the snow!

[wxman57]

From the D-FW NWS office's AFD:

THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE NOW BOTH
SHOWING ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES FROM BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL AS SNOW. OF COURSE...THIS SYSTEM IS
SEVERAL DAYS OUT SO MANY THINGS COULD CHANGE...BUT THERE WILL BE
A POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IF THE PROGS ARE CORRECT. AS
CURRENTLY DEPICTED...THIS SYSTEM WOULD HAVE LESS MOISTURE THAN THE
LAST SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO NORTH TEXAS AND WOULD BE FASTER
MOVING. HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
COLDER WHICH COULD RESULT IN FASTER ACCUMULATION ON ROADS. WE
WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OUTLINING THIS POSSIBLE
SNOW EVENT.

A significant change in their afternoon zone forecast:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...DALLAS
312 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2010

MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 30.

Their forecast this morning:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
406 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2010

TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. COLDER. HIGHS AROUND 40.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. LOWS AROUND 30.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

Dallas please share some of your snow this winter with us in central and southern texas who have not seem much, if any!

[Ntxw]

Would winds play any role in this? I don't see a strong gradient between high and low pressure, but then again, im sure there's more to it than just that.

[natlib]

San Angelo discussion is interesting.....Considering the trend this season for our area......I'll believe the snow when I see it. Looks good along I-20 though.


A strong cold front is still expected to push across west central
Texas on late Sunday into Monday. The 12z run of the GFS and European model (ecmwf)
have come into better agreement on the upper level pattern with
both models showing an upper level trough approaching west central
Texas on Tuesday. This combined with cold air in place creates the
possibility of wintry precipitation. There is a good chance for
precipitation but temperatures still remain uncertain. The GFS
850mb temperatures remain colder than the European model (ecmwf). The 12z GFS
soundings for the most part have surface temperatures and
dewpoints hovering around the freezing mark...except across the
Big Country. Once again this is a case where a few degrees
difference in temperatures can mean the difference between rain or
snow for west central Texas...so will keep the mention of rain or
snow in the weather grids. The models are showing quite a bit of quantitative precipitation forecast of
Tuesday into Tuesday night...this could become a concern if the
precipitation falls as snow. At this time due to the uncertainty on how
cold temperatures will be...will hold off on putting in snowfall
amounts.

[WacoWx]

Just about to post the same.^^^. In Waco the high has dropped to 36 with a 40%chance of ALL SNOW! took the rain out completely.

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

wxman57, how do you feel about the houston area's snow chances?

[southerngale]

It's looking like last week all over again, where I got nothing but another cold rain. I hope it trends colder and wetter for this area, but I'm going to try not to get my hopes up.

NWS LCH's thoughts on frozen precip in bold...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
340 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2010


.DISCUSSION...

DAMPENING PACIFIC SHORTWAVES WILL EXIT EASTWARD THROUGH LOUISIANA
THIS EVENING...PACIFIC CIRRUS WILL FOLLOW. ADVECTING GULF STRATUS
WILL RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...SIGNALING THE APPROACH OF THE GULF FRONT.
THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE RUNNING FROM 5 TO
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD COVER.
(OR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT SEASONAL).

FOR SATURDAY...BOTH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING ABOUT SEASONAL...UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WARM-UP AND MOISTENING-UP CONTINUES AS THE
GULF FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BY SUNDAY...THE WARM SECTOR WEDGE (SEE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT)
WILL BEGIN TO DE-STABILIZE AS THE GULF FRONT EXITS NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE CAPES (AROUND 1000 J KG) AND THE
SHOWALTER INDICES (AROUND -2 C DEG) WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SURFACE-
BASED CONVECTION.

MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDGE AS WELL.

THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PHASING-
IN OF LIFTS. THE GFS DEPICTS A DIFLUENT SHORT-WAVE ADVANCING EAST
THROUGH TEXAS. ITS ASSOCIATED JET STREAK (THE SOUTHWESTERLY ENTRANCE
REGION) WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
EXITING THE COASTAL MARSHES OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AROUND
MIDNIGHT MONDAY.

IF THE GFS SOLUTION HOLDS TRUE...THE PHASING-IN OF THE FRONTAL LIFT
WILL THE MESO- SYNOPTIC LIFT ATTENDING THE JET STREAK SEEMS LIKELY.
IN ADDITION...THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SHEAR (AROUND 35 KT) WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO FURTHER ORGANIZE CONVECTION.

WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.OUTLOOK...

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SLOW TO A HALT ACROSS THE
MIDSECTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A FRONTAL WAVE CYCLONE
FORMING NEAR GULF POINT 27N 94W. A TROWAL AIRSTREAM SETS-UP ACROSS
THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES...AS CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR
ASCENDS CYCLONICALLY UPON REACHING WAVE CYCLONE.

PASSING PACIFIC SHORTWAVES WILL FURTHER ADD TO THE LIFT SETTING THE
STAGE FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN. A WINTER MIX (LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW)
IS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE PINEY HILLS AND LAKES
REGION. LITTLE ACCUMULATION OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME...BASED ON THE GFS POSITION OF THE WAVE CYCLONE.

[Nederlander]

Is it just me, or is it looking a bit slower this run out to 72 hrs?

[txagwxman]

18z is a little warmer---maybe it will be an all rain event...since I won't get any down here.

[southerngale]

Oh, hmmm. Just saw this in my forecast. Yeah, riiiight.


Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Tuesday Night: Rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. North wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.


But the AFD mentions the mix is possible in the piney woods and lakes region. I don't live up there. Oh well, we'll see. Here goes the yo-yo again.



Edit: I live just a few miles outside of Beaumont, off Hwy. 105. This is Beaumont's forecast for that timeframe:

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 54. Northeast wind around 5 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 39.



What the heck? The forecasts are sometimes different, but not that much. 50% rain & 60% rain/snow vs sunny & partly cloudy with just a few miles difference. That ain't right!

[Ntxw]

Last week Deja Vu all over again. Given it is only the 18z. Hang in there Portastorm!

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

ahhhh 18z is not looking good for us here in college station....

[iorange55]

It's just one run people. It is interesting how similar it looks, weird.