Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[jasons2k]

iam sticking to my guns the graphic tells the story i dont buy the far southern track of this system
we will see who is right in the end

Looking less likely by the hour...and a careful analysis of the 500mb charts even last night when this was posted would have given some clues that this scenario isn't very likely.

[Portastorm]

Below is the latest from Jeff Lindner.

(Edit: Portastorm beat me to it)

Anyway, given his thoughts and the good discussion out of DFW, it does appear the models may be getting a better handle on this and are converging towards the more southern solution.

As I've been saying all along -- patience -- it will probably be tomorrow before there is any real confidence in this. But it is looking like those in Central Texas and areas south of the Metroplex may finally get their chance.

Unfortunately for Houston, it looks like a small chance of some snow at the tail end, but that's it.

I'm still not confident about our snow chances here in South Central Texas and I won't be until tomorrow if the models continue to show consistency. Seriously, I've been burned enough times in enough winters to know how these storm systems can move further north or south or even shear out. I am confident enough to say that someone south of the Red River will see accumulating snow this week!

And ... if it does appear like Austin will finally get its chance at snow ... I may become insufferable to you all!

[iorange55]

12z nam is coming in a little colder, and further south.


72hrs 12z nam




colder, and a tad further south compared to the 0z nam run.

[msstateguy83]

[msstateguy83]

iam half awake but that heavy band showing up on the run looks closer to dfw metro then austin or central
tx

[msstateguy83]

anyone who saw my graphic also can see that i put 1-3" for south of the metroplex THEY might get a dusting to 2 MAYBE 3" but not more then that iam sure of that... the heavy swath of precip will in, near or nw of the metroplex peroid......

[southerngale]

iam half awake but that heavy band showing up on the run looks closer to dfw metro then austin or central
tx

It's at 72 hours, Tuesday morning. Anything frozen isn't supposed to reach the Austin area until Tuesday night.

[Ntxw]

For one thing, the models don't have as strong a system as they did a couple of days ago. But I expected this to be so, as did the last system lol.

[Portastorm]

(WARNING: NON-METEOROLOGICAL VERNACULAR USED BELOW)

Check out this really cool water vapor satellite loop below ... see the big swirly thing heading towards California? That's our storm!

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/wcwv.html

[msstateguy83]

i was fixing to add that to ntxw looks much weaker to me on this run but we shall see what the gfs, euro say later...

[iorange55]

For one thing, the models don't have as strong a system as they did a couple of days ago. But I expected this to be so, as did the last system lol.

The NAM doesn't that's for sure. GFS still seems to show a fair amount of precip.

[southerngale]

anyone who saw my graphic also can see that i put 1-3" for south of the metroplex THEY might get a dusting to 2 MAYBE 3" but not more then that iam sure of that... the heavy swath of precip will in, near or nw of the metroplex peroid......

Well, Nostradamus, you really can't be sure of anything. Exact locations and any possible accumulations are definitely subject to change. I haven't seen anyone else claim they know exactly how it's going to pan out. You could be right, though.

[Ntxw]

Well, if the NAM is correct (I hope not, for Portastorm's sake) Austin won't get much of anything, not even rain . The system looks sheered out crossing Texas.

Hm I wonder if the dry northerly winds has anything to do with it vs the south\southeasterly component.

[txwxwatcher]

Looks like the trends may be starting to move in the direction of my previous posts regarding the potential for accumulating snow in College Station as well as snow in Houston. For the eastern part of the state, they may not be there quite yet, but with the more southern solution taking shape, I would not be surprised to see the heaviest snow taking shape about midway between Dallas and College Station (maybe even further south depending on how future model runs go). Will feel much more confident about this if/when the 12z and 0z runs continue the trend. Also, for what it's worth, it is my understanding that the NAM is most useful/accurate when 24-48 hours out from the event.

[msstateguy83]

SIM COMP RADAR FROM THE 12Z NAM......

[Ntxw]

Looks like the trends may be starting to move in the direction of my previous posts regarding the potential for accumulating snow in College Station as well as snow in Houston. For the eastern part of the state, they may not be there quite yet, but with the more southern solution taking shape, I would not be surprised to see the heaviest snow taking shape about midway between Dallas and College Station (maybe even further south depending on how future model runs go). Will feel much more confident about this if/when the 12z and 0z runs continue the trend. Also, for what it's worth, it is my understanding that the NAM is most useful/accurate when 24-48 hours out from the event.

The problem with that is, NAM never really moves the freezing line beyond Waco in any run. As I've stated before, moving the system south doesn't necessarily mean snow for everyone north of it, you need the cold air too. We should keep an eye on the upper level low, if the column is going to cool, that would do it. But even that doesn't guarantee it (I believe the last system had the low tracking over Austin) and it wasn't nearly as sheered as this one.

[txwxwatcher]

Looks like the trends may be starting to move in the direction of my previous posts regarding the potential for accumulating snow in College Station as well as snow in Houston. For the eastern part of the state, they may not be there quite yet, but with the more southern solution taking shape, I would not be surprised to see the heaviest snow taking shape about midway between Dallas and College Station (maybe even further south depending on how future model runs go). Will feel much more confident about this if/when the 12z and 0z runs continue the trend. Also, for what it's worth, it is my understanding that the NAM is most useful/accurate when 24-48 hours out from the event.

The problem with that is, NAM never really moves the freezing line beyond Waco in any run. As I've stated before, moving the system south doesn't necessarily mean snow for everyone north of it, you need the cold air too. We should keep an eye on the upper level low, if the column is going to cool, that would do it. But even that doesn't guarantee it (I believe the last system had the low tracking over Austin) and it wasn't nearly as sheered as this one.

Granted, with regard to the NAM line. However, do you really trust that the freezing line doesn't make it past Waco? I just don't have much faith in the NAM this far out. Sticking with the GFS trends for now, and to me at least, it is noteworthy that the Euro has started to latch on to it as well (with a colder/wetter solution).

[Ntxw]

The Euro as far as I can see, too never moved the 540 line much past Waco, you need that to be nearby along with the 850mb 0c for snow, or you'll just get a mixed bag most likely with sleet. The NAM is biased to warm but given it's track record lately, I wouldn't jump into any bandwagons that far south just yet. I'm not trying to be negative, but wxman has stated he doesn't think it will do much south and he's basically right on everytime.

[srainhoutx]

Keep in mind that the NAM has a bit of a warm bias to it. Also IMHO, the NAM is useful for trends/tracks beyond 24-36 hours for what my opinion is worth. The H5 charts will be a bit more useful right now. On Sunday night into Monday and even Tuesday, the 'finer details' will be worked out.

[txagwxman]

Lots of model disagreements through 84 hours with the 2 short-waves (one offshore CA, the other in the Pacific NW)...even UKMET more like the ECMWF now with less precip. I like the 6z GFS solution though, although the NAM has gone more Euroish ...see what the 12z GFS does here shortly.