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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3761 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 19, 2010 1:58 pm

High Surf Advisory in effect until 6 PM AST Monday

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST FRI FEB 19 2010

...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 6 PM AST MONDAY...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-013-VIZ001-200300-
/O.CON.TJSJ.SU.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-100222T2200Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
251 PM AST FRI FEB 19 2010

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AST MONDAY...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AST MONDAY.

LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS WILL
PRODUCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 12 TO 15 FEET
AND LOCALLY HIGHER ALONG THE LOCAL REEFS...BEACHES AND SHOALS OF
THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...CREATING
VERY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND FREQUENT...POTENTIALLY DEADLY
RIP CURRENTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE STRONG AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS
WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS. THESE NARROW OUTWARD
FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS AWAY FROM THE COAST
LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT
PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR BEARINGS RELATIVE TO THE
BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH. YOU WILL EVENTUALLY LEAVE
THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE ABLE TO SAFELY SWIM TO
SHORE.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS ARE URGED
TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE BREAKING
WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF ALL SIZES
INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND STAY
OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

THESE SURGING WAVES WILL ALSO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR BEACH EROSION
DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

THE TIMES OF THE HIGH TIDE FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 1:16 AM AST SATURDAY MORNING AT 1.3 FEET.

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 2:11 AM AST SATURDAY MORNING AT 0.6 FEET.

STAY TUNED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN
JUAN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.
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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica=High Surf Advisory until monday

#3762 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 19, 2010 3:06 pm

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST FRI FEB 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC SOUTH INTO
THE GREATER ANTILLES INTO NEXT WEEK. FRONT ALONG 20N WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATING BY TUE. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY`S THINKING.
FRONT HAS COME TO A HALT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. STRONG JET TO THE NORTH OF
THIS BDRY WILL SUSTAIN FRONT`S BAROCLINICITY WITH FRONT LIKELY TO
REMAIN INTACT AND STICK AROUND FOR SVRL DAYS. MODELS ALSO SHOW
DEEP MOISTURE POOLING ALG SFC BDRY WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO NEAR
1.75 INCHES AND K INDICES UP TO 32. WITH UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES
FCST TO ROTATE AROUND MEAN UPPER TROF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
ANTICIPATE LOTS OF CLOUDS WITH FREQ SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALG THE
NORTH COAST. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SVRL PERIODS OF
ORGANIZED RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF FROM
THIS. EVEN IF NO ORGANIZED RAINFALL DEVELOPS...OVERCAST SKIES
WITH FREQUENT SHOWERS LOOK A SAFE BET THIS WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW FRONT FINALLY DISSIPATING AROUND TUE OF NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A DRIER TREND FOR THE AREA MID WEEK BUT ANOTHER POSSIBLY
STRONGER FRONT IS FCST TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. GFES
ENSEMBLE MEAN DOES NOT SHOW THIS FRONT GETTING INTO OUR LOCAL
WATERS UNTIL NEXT FRI NIGHT OR SAT AND THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS A SIMILAR
TIMING TO THE GFES.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS WITH SHRA AT TJBQ...TJSJ...TIST AND TISX
POSSIBLE NEXT 24 HRS IN ENE FLOW OF AROUND 10 KT. VA FROM MONTSERRAT
APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF TISX...AND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT ANY LOCAL SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE NNW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLC WATERS TONIGHT WITH 8-10 FT SEAS OFFSHORE AND BREAKING
WAVES OF 10 TO 15 FT ALG THE COASTLINE. SCA AND HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.

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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica=High Surf Advisory until monday

#3763 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 19, 2010 5:24 pm

Spring Rainfall Outlook for Puerto Rico

Is the first time that I see this product being made by the San Juan NWS office.It looks like a good tool of information about what to expect during the next 4 months.

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... %20outlook

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
212 PM AST FRI FEB 19 2010

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...

FOR THE SPRING OF 2010...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL
FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX WHERE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NORMAL.

MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE YEAR TO DATE HAVE VARIED ACROSS THE
REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL REPORTS FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO
EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN COAST WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE RUNNING JUST
BELOW NORMAL...BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE HIGHEST
VALUES WERE ALONG THE EXTREME NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO, WHERE
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE QUITE HIGH...AT 219 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS WAS
MOSTLY DUE TO THE ABNORMALLY WET JANUARY EXPERIENCED IN THIS REGION.
NEW RECORDS WERE SET ON BOTH JANUARY 13TH AND 14TH AT THE INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN WHEN 2.56 INCHES AND 3.51 INCHES OF RAIN FELL
RESPECTIVELY (WHICH TOGETHER COMBINED TO MAKE THE WETTEST TWO DAY
PERIOD EVER RECORDED FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY). IN PARALLEL...
FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE ISLANDS TO THE NORTH INCLUDING
SAINT THOMAS HAVE SEEN ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE YEAR TO DATE
WHILE SAINT CROIX TO THE SOUTH...HAS HAD LESS RAINFALL THAN
NORMAL.

FOCUSING ON PUERTO RICO...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO HAS ONCE
AGAIN RECORDED BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE YEAR TO DATE...
THERE HAVE NOT BEEN MANY REPORTS OF WILDFIRES OR CROP DAMAGE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN WITH THE LOWER THAN NORMAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS SOME OF OUR HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...NONE OF OUR
REGIONS CURRENTLY HAVE ANY DROUGHT DESIGNATIONS IN THE U.S.
DROUGHT MONITOR.

BASED ON USGS NETWORK GAGES AT THE LOCAL RESERVOIRS AND LAKES...
A SAMPLE OF A FEW OF THE MAJOR RESERVOIRS ACROSS PUERTO RICO SHOW
THAT GENERALLY...LEVELS ARE WITHIN 2 TO 15 FEET OF NORMAL
OPERATIONAL LEVELS. LAGO PATILLAS IS CURRENTLY AT 220.50 FEET...
NORMAL OPERATIONAL LEVEL IS 222 FEET. LAGO LOIZA IS CURRENTLY
133.85 FEET...NORMAL OPERATIONAL LEVEL IS 132.00 FEET AND LAGO LA
PLATA IS CURRENTLY 165.17 FEET...NORMAL OPERATIONAL LEVEL IS 155
FEET. OVERALL...A GOOD PERCENTAGE OF THE LAKES ARE ABOVE THEIR
OPERATIONAL LEVELS, WHICH IS NOT GENERALLY THE CASE AT THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR...SINCE THIS IS THE DRY SEASON.

BEING THAT THIS IS THE DRY SEASON FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...DRY SOILS IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH ARE TO BE EXPECTED, AND
GIVEN A NORMAL SPRING TRANSITIONAL PERIOD, THE SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS USUALLY REBOUND QUICKLY WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN
RAINFALL. CURRENTLY,THE SOILS ARE NOT OVERLY DRY THROUGHOUT MOST
OF THE AREA WHICH IS BENEFICIAL IN THE CASE OF FIRE WEATHER,
AGRICULTURE AND GROUND WATER SUPPLIES.

STREAMFLOW MEASURED BY THE USGS GAGING NETWORK SHOWS MOST LOCATIONS
RUNNING AT FLOWS IN 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE. THIS CATEGORIZATION MAY
BE MISLEADING SINCE THE BASINS ARE RELATIVELY SMALL AND TROPICAL
RAINS ARE SO LADEN...THAT ANY CREDIBLE "RAIN MAKER" CAN HAVE AN
IMMEDIATE IMPACT TO THESE VALUES.

CLIMATOLOGICALLY, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL. WHILE THE EXTENT AND INTENSITY
OF THIS RAINFALL WILL BEST DETERMINE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
ISLANDS...THE CURRENT ANTECEDENT FACTORS POINT TO AN ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

AS A RESULT OF THESE FACTORS...THE CURRENT FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX WHERE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
NORMAL.

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU

THIS HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3764 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 19, 2010 9:56 pm

Updated High Surf Advisory until noon AST Sunday

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1037 PM AST FRI FEB 19 2010

...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NOON AST SUNDAY...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-013-VIZ001-201045-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.SU.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-100221T1600Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
1037 PM AST FRI FEB 19 2010

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AST SUNDAY...

THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AST SUNDAY.

LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKING WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 12 TO 15 FEET AND LOCALLY HIGHER ALONG THE LOCAL
REEFS...BEACHES AND SHOALS OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST
COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...CREATING VERY DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS AND FREQUENT...POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE STRONG AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS
WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS. THESE NARROW OUTWARD
FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS AWAY FROM THE COAST
LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT
PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR BEARINGS RELATIVE TO THE
BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH. YOU WILL EVENTUALLY LEAVE
THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE ABLE TO SAFELY SWIM TO
SHORE.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS ARE URGED
TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE BREAKING
WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF ALL SIZES
INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND STAY
OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

THESE SURGING WAVES WILL ALSO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR BEACH EROSION
DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

THE TIMES OF THE HIGH TIDE FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 1:16 AM AST SATURDAY MORNING AT 1.3 FEET.

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 2:11 AM AST SATURDAY MORNING AT 0.6 FEET.

STAY TUNED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN
JUAN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.
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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3765 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 20, 2010 6:45 am

Good morning to all.A cloudy with scattered showers day here as the front is stationary just north.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
529 AM AST SAT FEB 20 2010

.SYNOPSIS... FRONT ALONG 20N WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATING BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS PERSISTED ALONG THE NORTHERN
MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO...EXTENDING FROM DORADO...WEST TO
ISABELA. THE REST OF PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN MAINLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. TODAY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT CLOUDY ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...AS A COLD FRONT ALONG 20N MOVES LITTLE OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATED THAT NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL HAS OCCUR OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...AS WELL AS BUOY DATA TO OUR NORTH...INDICATED THAT
WE DIDN`T HAD A FRONT PASSAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BUOY
41043...WHICH IS LOCATED NEAR 200 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN...
INDICATED DEW POINT TEMPERATURES HAS FLUCTUATED BETWEEN 62F AND
64F...WITH NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS ALSO REPORTED AT THE BUOY.
MEANWHILE...AT SAN JUAN...THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES HAS FLUCTUATED
BETWEEN 70F AND 72F THE LAST 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO. A DRIER TREND IS THEN EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN
THE LONG TERM...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY COMPUTER MODELS
TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW IF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HOLD NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 21/08Z...CLOUDS...SCT SHWRS...AND SOME MVFR
CIGS WILL BE SEEN OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS
THROUGH OUT THE DAY WITH SHOWERS INCRG AFT 20/22Z OVER TIST AND AFT
21/00Z OVER TJSJ AND TJBQ. AFT 21/06Z EXPECT SFC WINDS TO SHIFT MORE
TOWARD EAST SOUTHEAST. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH AT
LEAST 21/06Z. MVFR CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TNCM DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
FRONTAL BAND.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE NNW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLC
WATERS TODAY WITH 8-10 FT SEAS OFFSHORE AND BREAKING WAVES OF 10 TO 15
FT ALG THE COASTLINE. SCA AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.
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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3766 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 20, 2010 7:38 am

High Surf Advisory remains in effect until noon AST Sunday

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
536 AM AST SAT FEB 20 2010

...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NOON AST SUNDAY...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-013-VIZ001-202015-
/O.CON.TJSJ.SU.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-100221T1600Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
536 AM AST SAT FEB 20 2010

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AST SUNDAY...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AST SUNDAY.

LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PEAKING THIS SATURDAY MORNING. THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 11 TO 14 FEET AND
LOCALLY HIGHER ALONG THE LOCAL REEFS...BEACHES AND SHOALS OF THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...CREATING
VERY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND FREQUENT...POTENTIALLY DEADLY
RIP CURRENTS. THESE WAVES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH NOW THROUGH
SUNDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE STRONG AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS
WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS. THESE NARROW OUTWARD
FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS AWAY FROM THE COAST
LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT
PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR BEARINGS RELATIVE TO THE
BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH. YOU WILL EVENTUALLY LEAVE
THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE ABLE TO SAFELY SWIM TO
SHORE.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS ARE URGED
TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE BREAKING
WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF ALL SIZES
INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND STAY
OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

THESE SURGING WAVES WILL ALSO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR BEACH EROSION
DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

THE TIMES OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 12:24 PM AST SATURDAY AT 0.8 FEET.

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 3:36 AM AST SUNDAY AT 0.6 FEET.

STAY TUNED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN
JUAN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.
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#3767 Postby Gustywind » Sat Feb 20, 2010 7:42 am

Thanks for these infos Cycloneye :).
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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3768 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 20, 2010 8:40 am

Flood Advisory

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
839 AM AST SAT FEB 20 2010

PRC143-201430-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0021.100220T1239Z-100220T1430Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VEGA ALTA PR-
839 AM AST SAT FEB 20 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY...

IN PUERTO RICO
VEGA ALTA

* UNTIL 1030 AM AST

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTS FLOODING ALONG HIGHWAY 2 IN
VEGA ALTA FROM THE QUEBRADA HONDA OVERFLOWING INTO THE ROADWAY.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE.
FLOODING IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR AND VERY LOCALIZED.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
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Re:

#3769 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 20, 2010 8:44 am

Gustywind wrote:Thanks for these infos Cycloneye :).


Thank you my friend for all your colaborations that you bring to this thread.To keep our tent thread for our area active,the information has to continue to flow into here. :) Also,thanks to the rest of our Caribbean members and our friend in Centralamerica Macrocane,this thread will continue to be the source of information about what is going on weatherwise in this area.

Guess what my friends,hurricane season is not far away as only 100 days are left so its a good time to check your preparations for the season.
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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3770 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 20, 2010 10:40 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1027 AM AST SAT FEB 20 2010

.UPDATE...GOING FORECAST MOSTLY ON TRACK...JUST SOME MINOR UPDATES
TO TWEAK POPS TO ONGOING WEATHER. WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
PERSISTENT WARM TOPPED SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HALF OF PR
TODAY AS NORTHEAST FLOW DAMS UP AGAINST THE CORDILLERA UNDER A
STRONG 800 HPA CAP. EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS NEARLY
ANYWHERE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN SO FAR
NOTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO.

BUOY 40403 HOLDING STEADY WITH 7 FT SWELLS AT 11 SECONDS. PEAK
ENERGY WAS LAST NIGHT...BUT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT NORTHERLY SWELL
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY MVFR WITH SOME POCKETS OF IFR IN HEAVIER SHRA
OVER TJBQ AND TJSJ. WINDS AT THOSE SITES A LITTLE CALMER LAST FEW
HOURS AND SHOULD PERSIST AT 10 TO 15 KT FROM THE NE. THE VI SITES
TIST AND TISX BEING SPARED THE PERSISTENT MVFR...BUT MAY SEE A
SHRA OR TWO IN THAT CATEGORY AROUND 18Z. WIND STRONGER AT THOSE TWO
SITES...WITH FLOW IN THE 20 KT RANGE...POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25KT
OUT OF THE EAST.
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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3771 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 20, 2010 11:43 am

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1235 PM AST SAT FEB 20 2010

PRC029-119-201930-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0023.100220T1635Z-100220T1930Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CANOVANAS PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
1235 PM AST SAT FEB 20 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CANOVANAS AND RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 330 PM AST

* AT 1233 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING
OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF RIO GRANDE AND PORTIONS OF CANOVANAS. UP
TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY BY 3 PM OVER THESE LOCATIONS.
MINOR FLOODING OF ANY POOR DRAINING AREAS AS WELL AS FLOODING OF
STREAMS AND RIVERS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 330 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
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Re: Re:

#3772 Postby Gustywind » Sat Feb 20, 2010 12:37 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Thanks for these infos Cycloneye :).


Thank you my friend for all your colaborations that you bring to this thread.To keep our tent thread for our area active,the information has to continue to flow into here. :) Also,thanks to the rest of our Caribbean members and our friend in Centralamerica Macrocane,this thread will continue to be the source of information about what is going on weatherwise in this area.

Guess what my friends,hurricane season is not far away as only 100 days are left so its a good time to check your preparations for the season.


Absolutely Luis, thanks a lot my friend! Consequently we should not forget this family spirit and that's a very very good think on this thread! :wink: As usual i will keep you informed, i appreciate sincerely your personnal contribution here: UNSELFISH :) :) is an euphemisma! Hey don't forget that you're our :lol: :oops: :
Image

Macrocane is making a good job, i appreciate too, thanks to all the carib members for theirs contributions, Msbee, HUC, Abajan, Expat2carib and the others. Hey let's cook our meal in family with smiles, joy, happiness and friendship!
Image
Image

[size=150]Y que viva la familia![/size]
Image
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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3773 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 20, 2010 1:19 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
147 PM AST SAT FEB 20 2010

PRC075-111-113-133-202045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0024.100220T1747Z-100220T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JUANA DIAZ PR-PONCE PR-SANTA ISABEL PR-PENUELAS PR-
147 PM AST SAT FEB 20 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
JUANA DIAZ...PONCE...SANTA ISABEL AND PENUELAS

* UNTIL 445 PM AST

* AT 146 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND ARE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
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#3774 Postby Gustywind » Sat Feb 20, 2010 1:27 pm

Image
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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3775 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 20, 2010 1:51 pm

Here is the radar for all to see how bad the weather is in Puerto Rico today as the front continues stationary.

Image
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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica Tropical Weather Thread

#3776 Postby Macrocane » Sat Feb 20, 2010 1:54 pm

I thank you too for the contributions especially to cycloneye and gustywind, it's nice to learn about the weather and climate in other regions and I hope that you enjoy learning about centralamerican weather too. I have just posted the observations of this week's cold front for Guatemala, Tegucigalpa and San Salvador here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=1967927#p1967927

I also uploaded some pictures that I took during this events.

Again, thanks for all the updates and remember that in just one week the 1010 Hurricane Season prediction poll starts :D
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Re: Caribbean - CA=Flood advisories for parts of Puerto Rico

#3777 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 20, 2010 2:04 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
225 PM AST SAT FEB 20 2010

PRC021-051-061-135-143-145-202045-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-100220T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TOA ALTA PR-VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-GUAYNABO PR-
VEGA BAJA PR-
225 PM AST SAT FEB 20 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TOA ALTA...VEGA ALTA...DORADO...GUAYNABO AND VEGA BAJA

* UNTIL 445 PM AST

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE
FLOODING IS OCCURRING ALONG HIGHWAY 2 IN VEGA ALTA AND VEGA BAJA. UP
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS LIKELY ALREADY FALLEN OVER THESE AREAS.
RIVER GAGES INDICATE THAT WATER LEVELS ARE RISING...AND FLOODING
THREATS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
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Re: Caribbean - CA=Flood advisories for parts of Puerto Rico

#3778 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 20, 2010 2:19 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST SAT FEB 20 2010

PRC029-119-202100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0025.100220T1911Z-100220T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CANOVANAS PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
311 PM AST SAT FEB 20 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CANOVANAS AND RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 500 PM AST

* AT 307 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED HEAVY RAIN IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF RAIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. FOR THAT REASON...THE URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED FOR CANOVANAS AND RIO
GRANDE UNTIL 5 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
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Re: Caribbean - CA=Flood advisories for parts of Puerto Rico

#3779 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 20, 2010 2:59 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
336 PM AST SAT FEB 20 2010

PRC001-055-059-079-081-093-097-121-125-153-202230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0026.100220T1936Z-100220T2230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ADJUNTAS PR-MARICAO PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-YAUCO PR-
LARES PR-GUAYANILLA PR-GUANICA PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-LAJAS PR-
336 PM AST SAT FEB 20 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ADJUNTAS...MARICAO...SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN...YAUCO...
LARES...GUAYANILLA...GUANICA...MAYAGUEZ AND LAJAS

* UNTIL 630 PM AST

* AT 330 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND ARE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
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Re: Caribbean - CA=Flood advisories for parts of Puerto Rico

#3780 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 20, 2010 3:15 pm

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

More rain is instored for Puerto Rico as the front continues stationary and combined with shortwave troughs swinging by,will cause bad weather until at least monday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
342 PM AST SAT FEB 20 2010

.SYNOPSIS...STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS PUERTO RICO
THROUGH MON AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AND MORE WET WEATHER IS IN STORE
NEXT 36 HRS AS FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST
AMDAR DATA INDICATES INVERSION HEIGHT HAS LIFTED COMPLETELY WITH
DEEP CONVECTION FORMING ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND SW PR WITH
LIGHTNING BEING DETECTED IN MARICAO AND YAUCO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A S/W TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ATTM AS IS
POISED TO MOVE ACROSS PR THIS EVENING TRIGGERING MORE RAIN.
LATEST GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND INDICATES A
VERY WET EVENING FOR THE NORTH CNTRL AND NORTHEAST PR. ACTIVITY
OVER THE SRN COAST HAS BEEN TIED MORE TO DIURNAL PROCESSES AND
THINK IT WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER STRONG S/W
TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE FL STRAITS WILL
MOVE QUICKLY EAST AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TOMORROW
TRIGGERING MORE RAIN SOME OF WHICH COULD BE VERY HEAVY. GLOBAL
MODELS ESPECIALLY THE 12Z ECMWF INDICATE MOISTURE INCREASING
RAPIDLY TOMORROW WITH K INDICES APPROACHING 40 AND PWATS JUST SHY
OF 2.0 INCHES. STRONGLY DEBATED ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH BUT MY
CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOT HIGH. GROUND SHOULD BE ABLE TO ABSORB A
LOT OF WATER DUE TO THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS. EVEN IF NO
FLOODING MATERIALIZES WET WEATHER IS A SURE BET NEXT 36 HRS.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY MVFR WITH SOME POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS/CIGS IN SHRA
OVER ALL PR SITES. WHILE NORTHERN HALF PR WILL SEE THESE CONDITIONS
RELATIVELY PERSISTENTLY...SOUTHERN PR EXPERIENCING A BURST OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS IN +SHRA TJPS
THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. WINDS ARE PROBLEMATIC...HIGHLY VARIABLE WINDS
DEPENDING ON NEARBY CONVECTION...BUT PREVAILING FLOW MOSTLY NELY AT
10 TO 15 KT. TISX MOSTLY VFR...BUT TIST TO EXPERIENCE MVFR TO IFR
18Z TO 00Z.


&&

.MARINE...HIGH SURF WAS CANCELLED BASED ON VISUAL OBS OF BREAKING
WAVES OF UP TO 8 FT OR LESS. SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
MODERATE CHOPS.
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