Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

I thank you too for the contributions especially to cycloneye and gustywind, it's nice to learn about the weather and climate in other regions and I hope that you enjoy learning about centralamerican weather too. I have just posted the observations of this week's cold front for Guatemala, Tegucigalpa and San Salvador here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=1967927#p1967927

I also uploaded some pictures that I took during this events.

Again, thanks for all the updates and remember that in just one week the 1010 Hurricane Season prediction poll starts

Thanks for those words my friend.That is the purpose of having this thread.About the storm2k hurricane poll,its time for us to start paying attention to what is going on in the Atlantic and Pacific as various factors are looking to favor more cyclone activity than last year.One of those things that the members can start to think about what to expect this 2010 season is the Storm2k hurricane poll and what set of numbers the 2010 season will have.

[Gustywind]

I thank you too for the contributions especially to cycloneye and gustywind, it's nice to learn about the weather and climate in other regions and I hope that you enjoy learning about centralamerican weather too. I have just posted the observations of this week's cold front for Guatemala, Tegucigalpa and San Salvador here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=1967927#p1967927

I also uploaded some pictures that I took during this events.

Again, thanks for all the updates and remember that in just one week the 1010 Hurricane Season prediction poll starts

Thanks for those words my friend.That is the purpose of having this thread.About the storm2k hurricane poll,its time for us to start paying attention to what is going on in the Atlantic and Pacific as various factors are looking to favor more cyclone activity than last year.One of those things that the members can start to think about what to expect this 2010 season is the Storm2k hurricane poll and what set of numbers the 2010 season will have.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Another wet day in Puerto Rico is instored.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST SUN FEB 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS PUERTO RICO
THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...YESTERDAY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A LINE OF
SHOWERS PERSISTED ALONG THE NORTHERN MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO
RICO...EXTENDING FROM DORADO...WEST TO ISABELA. TODAY...THE SAME
WEATHER PATTERN HAS PREVAIL...BUT THIS TIME...THE LINE OF SHOWERS
HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...EAST...AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE TODAY...WITH
INTERMITTENT PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA...MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH LAST 24 HOURS. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAIN DRAPED
ACROSS PUERTO RICO...AND WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR AT LEAST 24
MORE HOURS...UNTIL IT WILL DISSIPATE. COMPUTER MODELS STILL
SUGGESTS CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BY TUESDAY...WHEN A DRIER AIR
MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH A DRIER AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY...PROG SOUNDINGS FROM
GFS INDICATED PW VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES FOR THE WHOLE
WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHEAST AND EVEN SOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY...AS COMPUTER MODEL FORECAST ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...IS
TOO EARLY TO KNOW IF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
OUR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL UNDULATE ACROSS THE AREA HOLDING
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST 21/22Z. SHOWERS WILL FAVOR EASTERN PUERTO RICO. TAF SITES
HAVING PERIODS OF MVFR WILL INCLUDE TJMZ AND TJBQ. TAF SITES WITH
OCNL MVFR INCLUDE TIST...TJPS AND TJSJ. VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL AT
TISX...TNCM AND TKPK. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST 22/02Z. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY NEAR SHOWERS BUT
GENERALLY EAST NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN UNPROTECTED AREAS. CLOUD
TOPS WILL BE GENERALLY BELOW 15 KFT IN THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.MARINE....SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES STILL IN EFFECT AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. AFTER MONDAY MORNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STILL EXERCISE
CAUTION UNTIL SWELL HAVE COMPLETELY LEFT THE AREA LATER MONDAY.

[msbee]

it's cloudy and rainy here this morning too, Luis.
and no wind.
still as can be

[cycloneye]

it's cloudy and rainy here this morning too, Luis.
and no wind.
still as can be

Cam from ST Maarten.At least in San Juan,there is a moderate breeze.



By the way,the members can go to the first post of the thread and make a tour thru the islands and Centralamerica as there are many cams posted,including cams from the Panama Canal

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
134 PM AST SUN FEB 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH LINE SWEPT ACROSS THE ENTIRE TROPICAL ATLC. LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM TO LINGER ACROSS LOCAL AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. HELPS
PATTERN PROGRESS AND CLEAR OUT THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BY THE END OF THE CYCLE ANOTHER DEEP LAYERED TROUGH PROGGED TO
AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPLOSIVE SETUP TODAY WITH STALLED LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW ACCOMPANIED BY DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND 100 KT U/L
JET TO PROVIDE A FULL DYNAMIC SETUP. ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWED TEMP
AND SHEAR PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION WHILE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...PW NEAR 2 INCHES...HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS FOR FEBRUARY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTING BEST DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH U/L JET TO THE NE OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT TAIL
END OF JET STREAK SHOULD BE OVER ISLAND NEAR 00Z AND ALLOW
SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY
NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED SUNLIGHT THIS
MORNING HAS KEPT SURFACE RELATIVELY COOL...WHICH MAY NOT PROVIDE
THE HEATING NECESSARY TO OVERCOME SOME WEAK MID LEVEL CAPPING IN
PLACE. AS UPPER SYSTEM PROGRESSES NEXT 24 HOURS...THREAT OF DEEP
CONVECTION WILL GO WITH IT...BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL LINGER NEAR
THE SURFACE TO KEEP SKIES CLOUDY AND SHOWERS SCATTERED UNTIL
TUESDAY. BY THAT TIME YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP THE THE
NORTHEASTERN US. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCAL WIND FLOW TO TURN TOWARDS
THE SOUTH...AND FINALLY DISSIPATE THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY APPEAR TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
EARLY LAST WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW. BY FRIDAY...EURO MODEL HAS THE SURFACE LOW POUNDING THE
NORTHEAST US AND SENDING ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM...LIKELY MUCH
STRONGER THAN THE CURRENT ONE...DOWN TOWARDS THE NE CARIBBEAN.
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WET ONE NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS MOVING INTO EASTERN PUERTO RICO...EXPECT OCNL
MVFR AT TIST...TJPS AND TJSJ THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH SHORTER PERIODS
OF MVFR AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY NEAR SHOWERS BUT
GENERALLY EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN UNPROTECTED AREAS.


&&

.MARINE...DECIDED TO DROP ALL SCA AS BUOY 41403 ONLY SHOWED ABOUT
5 FOOT WAVE HEIGHTS THIS MORNING. NOT MUCH CHANGE ON THE MARINE
SIDE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IN FACT SEAS WILL BECOME MORE
CALM AND WINDS WILL DECREASE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER LONG PERIOD BATCH OF NELY SWELLS ARRIVE. THESE SWELLS ARE
PROGGED AT 10 TO 15 SECONDS...BUT WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
BREAKING WAVE MAKER AT JUST 1 TO 1.5 METERS IN HEIGHT. BY NEXT
WEEKEND MORE SIGNIFICANT BATCH OF NWLY SWELLS FROM THE DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE OVER THE NW ATLC WILL HIT THE
LOCAL AREA.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST MON FEB 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS
THE WEST ATLANTIC TODAY...WHILE A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED BAND OF MOISTURE NOW SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC LATER
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
WEST ATLANTIC WHILE DISSIPATING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THEN GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA BY FRIDAY AS TRAILING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. A WEAK MID TO UPPER
TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...AND THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL MAINTAIN HIGH ZONAL WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BEING
FLATTENED BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT A SLOW BUT GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF FRONTAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND MORE
SUNSHINE FOR SOME OF THE ISLANDS TODAY. HOWEVER...LATEST GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PWAT VALUES TO REMAIN AROUND 1.70 INCHES
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH AGAIN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THEREFORE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL HELP TRIGGER AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS...NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY.
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AND
PULL NORTHWARD...LEADING TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERALL. EXPECT
PREVAILING VFR CONDS THROUGH 22/16Z FOLLOWED BY MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
AND MVFR CONDS OVER INTERIOR PUERTO RICO AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ AND
POSSIBLY TJBQ. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH 22/06Z BUT
TURN SOUTHEAST AFTERWARD.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon Discussion by NWS San Juan


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
226 PM AST MON FEB 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF
MOISTURE SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY FOLLOW ON FRIDAY LEADING TO YET ANOTHER STALLED FRONT AND
HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
LOCAL AREA INDUCING WEAK EASTERLY TROUGHINESS OVER THE LEEWARD AND
VIRGIN ISLANDS. CONVERGENCE AXIS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
SPARKING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN A LINE FROM ST THOMAS TOWARDS MAYAGUEZ.
MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN US WILL PROGRESS AND
ALLOW REMNANT MOISTURE OVER LOCAL AREA TO PUSH EAST THIS
EVENING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW. EARLY
WEDNESDAY FRONT FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM SWEEPS THROUGH SW
ATLC AND QUICKLY PUSHES OVER LOCAL AREA LIKELY RESULTING IN
ANOTHER CLOUDY AND SHOWERY DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD
QUICKLY PROGRESS THROUGH AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND RIDES UP INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WHERE IT
CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT IT WILL SPIN AND WOBBLE FOR A FEW DAYS.
THIS WILL PUSH A SECOND AND STRONGER FRONT THROUGH THE SW ATLC
ARRIVING TO PUERTO RICO BY FRIDAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ANOTHER STALLING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATION VERY SIMILAR
TO THE CURRENT ONE...WITH A WEEKEND VERY SIMILAR TO THIS PAST
WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES ALL WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL
TAF SITES THROUGH 23/14Z...WITH A SCT-BKN CLD DECK AROUND 5KFT AND ESE
WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJSJ THROUGH 23/01Z...ALONG WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO. VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES AFT 23/01Z.


&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41403 SHOWING VERY PERSISTENT 5 FOOT 11 SECOND
SWELL...WHICH IS STILL RESULTING IN SOME MODERATELY CHOPPY
CONDITIONS IN THE SURF ZONE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE WED NIGHT WHEN 5 FOOT LONGER PERIOD NELY SWELL AT AROUND 13
SECONDS ARRIVES AND MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE PASSAGES. CONDITIONS
WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM THAT POINT UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN A MUCH
LARGER BATCH OF NWLY SWELLS FROM A DEEP AND PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NW ATLC HIT THE LOCAL WATERS. WNA
CURRENTLY HAS 8 TO 10 FOOT SWELL AT 12 SECONDS FOR THE NORTH COAST
ON SATURDAY...BUT FEEL THAT IS UNDERDONE THE WAY EURO AND GFS
HANDLE THE LOW OFF THE NORTHEASTERN US AT THAT TIME.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
441 AM AST TUE FEB 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE WEST ATLANTIC...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM THE EAST ATLANTIC...
WILL CREATE AND MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY. IN THE MEANTIME...AN INDUCED LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTAL
TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...AND BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
FOLLOW AND APPROACH THE ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL FRONTAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS IT SINKS
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND
LOCAL WATERS TODAY...AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH AFFECTED THE AREA IN RECENT DAYS...CONTINUED TO
DISSIPATE AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN WITH THE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW. STILL HOWEVER EXPECT DIURNAL AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO
INDUCE SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WITH
THE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. MOST FAIR WEATHER SKIES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE INDUCED LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THUS INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR MOSTLY EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER...
ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...NO
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST AN
ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY. IF THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS... EXPECT WETTER
CONDITIONS AT LEAST ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND ALL LOCAL TERMINALS AS WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT FOR THE NEXT 18 HRS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER TJBQ. VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN FOR ALL TAF SITES AFT 23/22Z.

[abajan]

It’s now very dry in Barbados and according to a local climatologist, the island is experiencing possibly its worst ever recorded drought!
I knew things were bad but I hadn’t realized they were that bad. Other countries in the South Eastern Caribbean aren’t doing well either. Even Guyana, a country that’s practically synonymous with water is in the throws of drought conditions. Much of this is being blamed on El Nino and a persistent High pressure system.

[Macrocane]

Hopefully El Niño will be gone by the start of the hurricane season and the tropical waves will be more active and there will be less subsidence than last year.

A cold front will reach Central America on wednesday, it seems that it will be a moderate to strong event although short lived, here is what the 12 UTC East Pacific TWD says about it:

GAP WINDS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WED WHICH WILL FUNNEL NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE CHIVELAS PASS AND ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT IN 24
HOURS THEN WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE WITHIN 30 HOURS.
GFS 925 MB WINDS REACH STORM FORCE ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME
DOUBT AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN/
REACH THE SURFACE SO WILL REFRAIN FROM UPGRADING TO A STORM
WARNING AT THIS TIME. IN ANY EVENT GALE FORCE WINDS LOOK TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS ONCE THEY BEGIN AROUND 18 UTC
WED.

THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PUSH SE THROUGH THE NW
CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT AND N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL BEGIN
IN 48 HOURS IN THE GULF OF FONSECA AS THEY GET CHANNELED
THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

JUST BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE AND
INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH NE TO E WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BEHIND THE FRONT.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDEP+shtml/231540.shtml?

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
201 PM AST TUE FEB 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY OVER NORTHERN PORTION OF
FA OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID DAY TOMORROW WITH A MARGINAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NE PR AND USVI. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS DRY BEFORE A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASES CLOUDINESS AND THE
CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATTERN PROGRESSING A BIT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...BUT
GOING FORECAST LARGELY ON TRACK. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY KEEPING THINGS HOT AND DRY
TODAY WITH SOUTH FLOW OF AROUND 15 KT LOCALLY. BY TONIGHT MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF EASTERN PR/USVI AND THE ATLC WATERS. THIS WILL
SPARK A VERY BRIEF INCREASE IN SHRA ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...STRONG
RIDGE IN PLACE AND FRONT LOOKING WEAK THIS FAR SOUTH OVER SIMILAR
LATITUDES TO OUR WEST...NOT LOOKING AT A HEAVY RAIN EVENT BY ANY
MEANS. FAVORED AREAS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE ATLC
WATERS...PERHAPS CLIPPING ERN PR AND THE USVI. BY MID DAY
WEDNESDAY FRONT WILL HAVE QUICKLY PROGRESSED AS TEMPORARILY LOW
MID RIDGE BUILDS IN AGAIN AND WINDS TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER HOT ONE
WITH WEAK SOUTH FLOW AND VERY MINIMAL CLOUD COVER.

BY FRIDAY...NEXT FRONT FROM STRONG SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
SPINNING UP OFF THE VA/NC COAST SWEEPS THROUGH SW ATLC AND CUTS
OFF THE QUICKLY PROGRESSING U/L FLOW...WHERE IT WILL LINGER EITHER
DIRECTLY OVER OR JUST NORTH OF LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EURO MODEL HAS RETROGRADED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH SINCE
24 HRS PREVIOUS...AND GFS SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. CURRENTLY FAVORING
THE EURO SOLUTION...WHICH WOULD MAKE THE WEEKEND A BIT NICER...BUT
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST THE WAY IT IS FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 12 HOURS
UNTIL MODELS EITHER ALIGN OR RETROGRADING SOLUTION BECOMES MORE
BELIEVABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES FOR
NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OF 10-20 KT WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY 24/14Z AS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS BY TO THE NORTH. IN ADDITION SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE AFTER 24/14Z... RESULTING IN TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ...TJMZ AND TIST AFT 24/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MARINE GRIDS TO ADJUST TO
WEEKEND SWELL...BRING IT IN A BIT LATER. LOOKS LIKE LONG PERIOD 3
METER SWELL FROM THE NW SHOULD HIT NWRN WATERS NO LATER THAN 12Z
SATURDAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN HIGH SURF CONDITIONS IN THE SURF
ZONE AND SCA NEARLY EVERYWHERE. UNTIL THEN...SOUTHERLY WINDS NOW
MAKING CONDITIONS MUCH SMOOTHER OVER THE ATLC WATERS AND
PASSAGES. NO REAL CHANGE FROM NOW TIL FRIDAY NIGHT.

[cycloneye]

Good to see you back here abajan.I have mentioned the high pressure parked just east of the Antilles causing the drought conditions.As Macrocane said,hopefully the pattern changes soon as El Nino continues to weaken.

In another topic,I had to post Joe Bastardi's video about a nasty 2010 hurricane season in this thread because he talks a lot about the hurricane alley belt between Africa and Lesser Antilles.We have to be prepared this season because as I am seeing the factors evolve,it will be active in the hurricane alley corridor.

Joe Bastardi nasty 2010 hurricane season video below

Joe Bastardi Video

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Some rain for today but the weekend looks much wetter.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 AM AST WED FEB 24 2010

SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC...NOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE
WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
AND WILL PRODUCE UNUSUAL WESTERLIES WINDS. AN EVEN STRONGER COLD
FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO SINK FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. THE FIRST FEW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TO THIS WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BE AFFECTING THE
PUNTA BORINQUEN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO
THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND GENERATE
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL CONCENTRATE ALONG THE INTERIOR
AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUETO RICO DUE TO UNUSUAL WESTERLIES AND
NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EASTERLY BETWEEN
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...ON
FRIDAY NIGHT A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WEATHER FEATURE PROMISE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE ON CLOUD
AND SHOWER COVERAGE FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY AS MOISTURE WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES AT LEAST UNTIL 24/12Z.
FM SFC-050K FT A S-SW WIND FLOW OF 10-15 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...BCMG MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AFT 24/14Z AS A SFC
TROUGH TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. BTWN 24/16Z-22Z...
EXPECT SHRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PR...
TO STEER TOWARDS NORTHEAST AND EAST SECTION OF THE ISLAND. THIS WILL
LEAD TO TEMPO MVFR CONDS MAINLY IN VICINITY OF OR ACROSS TJMZ...
TJSJ...TJPS. INCRG CLDS WITH SOME VCSH AT TIST AND TISX AFT 24/18Z
BUT VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL.

MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.
A NORTHEAST SWELL IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR ATLANTIC LOCAL WATERS BETWEEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL PEAK ON SATURDAY AT 1.5 METERS (5FEET)
AT A PERIOD OF BETWEEN 12 TO 13 SECONDS. ANOTHER SWELL WILL INVADE
OUR ATLANTIC LOCAL WATERS BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS SWELL WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL PEAK ON
SATURDAY AT AROUND NOON WITH SWELL HEIGHTS OF 2.4 METERS (8FEET)
AT A PERIOD OF 11 SECONDS. THEREFORE BOTH SWELL WILL BE AFFECTING
THE LOCAL WATERS ON SATURDAY GENERATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL ATLANTIC WATERS
AND ALL LOCAL PASSAGES.

[Macrocane]

Good morning. A lot of moisture is moving from the Pacific into Central America, also a cold front is going to be pushed south into the region, and some showers are possible in the countries.

Here is what the TWD says about the cold front:

GAP WINDS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SE AND FUNNEL NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 KT BY LATE WED MORNING...THEN QUICKLY INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOK TO PERSIST
THROUGH LATE THU BEFORE DISSIPATING BELOW GALE FORCE BY FRI
MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PUSH SE THROUGH THE NW
CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL BRIEFLY
AFFECT THE GULF OF FONSECA THU MORNING AS WINDS CHANNELING
THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA ARE ENHANCED BY NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS WILL THEN DROP BELOW 20 KT THU AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE AND INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN
WITH NE TO E WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO EARLY FRI.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDEP+shtml/240944.shtml?

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A lot of moisture is moving from the Pacific into Central America, also a cold front is going to be pushed south into the region, and some showers are possible in the countries.

Here is what the TWD says about the cold front:

GAP WINDS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SE AND FUNNEL NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 KT BY LATE WED MORNING...THEN QUICKLY INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOK TO PERSIST
THROUGH LATE THU BEFORE DISSIPATING BELOW GALE FORCE BY FRI
MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PUSH SE THROUGH THE NW
CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL BRIEFLY
AFFECT THE GULF OF FONSECA THU MORNING AS WINDS CHANNELING
THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA ARE ENHANCED BY NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS WILL THEN DROP BELOW 20 KT THU AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE AND INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN
WITH NE TO E WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO EARLY FRI.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDEP+shtml/240944.shtml?

Surely,there is ample moisture down there.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

Rainy weather for Friday and Saturday as a strong front arrives close to Puerto Rico.High swell event for Saturday.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST WED FEB 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATER THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK FRONT DISSIPATES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A
SECOND...STRONGER AND MORE MOIST FRONT...WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET
...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND NEAR THE ISLAND OF SAINT
CROIX. A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER DAY IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL
ISLANDS ON FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT COULD DROP NEAR ENOUGH TO
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TO BRING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HOWEVER COPIOUS
RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.

ONCE THIS SECOND FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATER IN THE WEEKEND...A
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A WEAK EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AND MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY IS CAUSING WINDS TO
SHIFT...BUT THEY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. EXPECT NORTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME NORTHEASTERLY FROM TJBQ
FIRST 18Z...THEN TJSJ 00Z...VI AND NORTHERN LEEWARD SITES 00-04Z.
VCSH EXPECTED 18-00Z OVER TJPS AND SLIGHTLY LESS LIKELY TIST AND
TISX...BUT NO SUB VFR CONDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS WILL INVADE THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TOMORROW NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY LARGER...MORE NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS...EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

[Macrocane]

Thanks for the pic cycloneye. The latest from the cold front:

GAP WINDS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SE AND FUNNEL NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE JUST STARTING THIS MORNING AT 15Z. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOK TO
PERSIST THROUGH LATE THU BEFORE DISSIPATING BELOW GALE FORCE BY
FRI MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PUSH SE THROUGH THE NW
CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL BRIEFLY
AFFECT THE GULF OF FONSECA THU MORNING AT 12Z...AND THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO SIX HOURS LATER AT 18Z. WINDS WILL THEN DROP BELOW 20
KT FRI MORNING.

As you can see the cold front is very well defined and has already decreased the temperatures in Southeast US and Mexico:

[cycloneye]

That is the same strong front that will get very close or over Puerto Rico on Friday.It will weaken as it moves closer to the NE Caribbean but it will bring at least two wet days,Friday and Saturday.

[Gustywind]

Here in Guadeloupe, we're close to break another records in terms of high tempertatures. 34°C have been reported today at Sainte-Rose, 33°C at Petit-Canal it's very unusual of this part of the year (February). Meteo-France think that another records could be on tape if this nasty situation continues and amplifies. It's really worrying as the drought too, sometimes no water and poweroutages
Let's hope that things will improve quickly, we need desesperately some water in our island...