Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[srainhoutx]

GFS looks a bit colder and what is that I see in the Gulf? A coastal...hmmm...

[Portastorm]

Not if the 12z GFS verifies ... doesn't it look to y'all like it hammers the San Angelo to Waco to Longview corridor and we'd be on the southern fringe and maybe pick up an inch or two??

I'm sorry but I'm not ready to issue my Kicking Field Goals with Lucy Party Watch just yet. Just too nervous and too many could-be's, almost were's, and never was. I want to see the 12z Euro, Ukie, and JMA.

However, let's keep the following in mind for all of us:

[Ntxw]

Brownwood to Waco is where the 6+ bullseye is on the GFS. Austin-College Station a good 1-2 inches. Also notice how close it creeps into the Houston area.

[wxman22]

12z GFS looks nice for even us folks on the north side of the Houston area

[msstateguy83]

12z is running, is not done yet but from what i could see of the overnight runs towards
next wkend looks like another poss MAJOR WINTER STORM for folks across portions of ok into northern
tx... needs to be watched closely

[Ntxw]

12z is running, is not done yet but from what i could see of the overnight runs towards
next wkend looks like another poss MAJOR WINTER STORM for folks across portions of ok into northern
tx... needs to be watched closely

GFS has a disturbance coming through before that storm. There looks to be two potential threats, a smaller storm that sets up the cold air as the big one is crashing into California.

[srainhoutx]

Just a word of caution concerning what we have seen ALL winter season. The closer to the event the more it does seem that everything shifts a bit further S than progged at 48 hours. I'm pulling for you Portastorm.

[msstateguy83]

very good point i can remember even back to the christmas eve blizzard models were putting it up into central,northern ok
and the last min did a further southward jog and setup from the okc metro southward, has happened several times this yr... so
even though it is showing waco, brownwood areas into east tx at the moment we are still 24 + hrs out and with the models record so far
this yr shifting them southward at the last min austin still has plenty of hope for a big one

[southerngale]

12z GFS looks a little better for us in SE TX. Here's hoping the snow keeps creeping southward and Portastorm kicks it outta the park and we get a little something down here too.

It looks like my family in Brownwood is gonna get dumped on again as well. They've gotten quite a bit of snow this winter.

[msstateguy83]

ntxw i see what your sayin now might have a weaker one earlyer in the wkend then the much stronger one likely by sunday and wow does it look quite impressive

[srainhoutx]

GGEM @ hour 54...

[wxman57]

Well, I'd certainly rather see a blanket of snow across Houston vs. cold, icy rain all day Tuesday. But I'm not optimistic.

12Z GFS is certainly farther south with the snow line, but it's not really colder. First, take a look at the latest GFS meteogram for IAH (northern Houston). Note that all the precip falls while the surface temperature is between 35-39 degrees at the surface. That relatively warm air and high dew point at the start of the precip here really bothers me if I'm looking for snow. I'd like to see that green dew point line down at least below 25F at the start of the precip, and preferably closer to 18-20F.



Now look at a projected sounding from the same GFS, but for a bit to the northwest of Houston in northwest Harris County. It's still borderline for snow to reach the ground, and the surface temperature is well up into the 30s.


So I think we'll be borderline for snow across most of the city. Mostly cold rain, occasionally mixed with sleet from mid to late afternoon. Maybe a few snowflakes as the precip ends, but they'd melt upon hitting the above-freezing ground. There's just nothing to indicate that the airmass will be cold enough here for accumulating snow. Just not quite cold enough at the ground and aloft.

Now, it's possible that the "aloft" air will be a little cooler than forecast, but that would still leave the surface air too warm. I think it's less likely that the models are off by 5-7 degrees on the surface temps, though. That relatively warm air and high dew point at the start of the precip here really bothers me if I'm looking for snow.

[Portastorm]

It's hard to believe that in 48 hours Austin might be facing a winter storm. Just got back from taking the dog for our 1.5-mile walk and we have partly cloudy skies, a light breeze, and temps around 70. Just a beee-yoot-a-full day here in the capital of Texas!

Wxman57, you better get out there and enjoy the day and your bike ride before the cold rain returns!

[wxman57]

Portastorm, I have a special treat for you. Everything (currently) indicates you'll be getting a few inches of snow out of this storm. I made a special sounding for you. The sounding is valid for NOON Tuesday! The accumulation map is valid for midnight Tuesday night. It looks like an extended period of snow in Austin.

[Texas2Florida]

Hey gimme my snow back!!!!!

[Portastorm]

Wxman57, that makes my day. Heck, it makes my week!

My confidence level is growing but I'll feel a lot better if you can come up with another one of these tomorrow afternoon showing the same thing!

[gboudx]

:uarrow:

Wxman57, that makes my day. Heck, it makes my week!

My confidence level is growing but I'll feel a lot better if you can come up with another one of these tomorrow afternoon showing the same thing!

Admit it, you won't feel confident until the weather rock show's snow. I didn't.

[Yankeegirl]

Maybe I should make a roadtrip to Austin?! I am still keeping my fingers crossed for some snow here on the northwest side of town....Maybe I should just do a SnowDance?!

[Portastorm]

It seemed to work pretty good for you, gboudx, during DFW Snowmageddon ... didn't it?!

I'll put mine outside this afternoon. The weather rock knows all.

[WacoWx]

When I start hearing things like central Texas and record, I get REAL excited! Bring it mother nature!