Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[gboudx]

Anything less that a vid of you kicking a FG will be a ginormous disappointment.

[Portastorm]

Anything less that a vid of you kicking a FG will be a ginormous disappointment.

Dude ... I already have the kids educated on how to shoot the video. I promise it to all should the snow miracle occur!

[Texas2Florida]

Wow seems like the GFS has trended a little bit back towards the North, a few runs ago it looked like nothing but a dusting for DFW, including points far south.

[gboudx]

I meant to have a vid taken of me kicking a FG for DFW Snowmargaddeon, but we didn't make it to the middle school with the football field. Next time, next time. They have some good 30' hills out at that school that would make sledding a blast.

[Ntxw]

I meant to have a vid taken of me kicking a FG for DFW Snowmargaddeon, but we didn't make it to the middle school with the football field. Next time, next time. They have some good 30' hills out at that school that would make sledding a blast.

Lucy hasn't made much of an appearance up here this year, she's not dressed properly for the winter we've been having . She's favoring Portastorm for now, not much longer.

[Portastorm]

I'm thinking tonight's model guidance has my local NWSFO flustered. Still no new zone forecasts or forecast discussion. They're probably leafing through their manuals trying to find what to do when the NAM and GFS are showing 2-3 inches of snow within 48 hours of the actual event!

[gofrogs2]

Maybe but i think that it asso trended wetter.

[gboudx]

I meant to have a vid taken of me kicking a FG for DFW Snowmargaddeon, but we didn't make it to the middle school with the football field. Next time, next time. They have some good 30' hills out at that school that would make sledding a blast.

Lucy hasn't made much of an appearance up here this year, she's not dressed properly for the winter we've been having . She's favoring Portastorm for now, not much longer.

Well, that's partly true. Us Eastplexers got shafted for the Christmas Eve storm. We had a dusting to maybe 0.5".

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

the weatherman in college station just said he expects us to get a dusting to an inch. why is the media being so conservative here?

[Ntxw]

the weatherman in college station just said he expects us to get a dusting to an inch. why is the media being so conservative here?

That's how it is in most of Texas. It's tough predicting snow and you can get burned easily. They get criticized for being wrong unlike us weather enthusiasts so being conservative is how it probably will be the further south you are. They likely don't change forecasts run by run, perhaps tomorrow you'll hear better from them as the event gets closer.

[wxman22]

The GFS is much more suppressed and weaker with next weeks system but at the same time the weaker system allows colder air too filter in further south into the state (instead of Warm air advection taking over from the gulf) which could imply for another wintry precip chance in central/southeast Texas FWIW.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_168m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_174m.gif

[serenata09]

Looks like the 00z GFS total snow accum. has pushed some heftier amounts further north in the metroplex.


00z...
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overla ... TIONID=FWS

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

are the new 00z models still trending south?

[Nederlander]

Looks about the same, other then it seems like its extending the preciptation which looks better for southeast Texas IMHO.. The 0 line hugs the coast with precipitation still happening.. I guess its trying to develop that coastal low that's been talked about.. If that verifies them it should allow a better chance for frozen precip from Houston to Beaumont north of i-10.. But it also depends on the temperatures aloft.. not sure what those are looking like for southeast Texas.. Of there is warm air aloft (above freezing) then surface temps are pretty irrelevant.. Maybe a pro met or more experienced model reader can elaborate on the conditions aloft

[Ntxw]

Looks about the same, other then it seems like its extending the preciptation which looks better for southeast Texas IMHO.. The 0 line hugs the coast with precipitation still happening.. I guess its trying to develop that coastal low that's been talked about.. If that verifies them it should allow a better chance for frozen precip from Houston to Beaumont north of i-10.. But it also depends on the temperatures aloft.. not sure what those are looking like for southeast Texas.. Of there is warm air aloft (above freezing) then surface temps are pretty irrelevant.. Maybe a pro met or more experienced model reader can elaborate on the conditions aloft

To a degree, if you want good accumulations you'll need temps as close to freezing as possible. Many people refer to the Dallas snowstorm a few weeks ago with temps above freezing. We hovered around 33 in the metro to 34 south (where mixing happened) all day with constant heavy snow falling causing it to stick and not the 35+ that people have talked about (this was because the GFS and NAM were a bit off on temps). But that doesn't mean it can't with temps higher than that, just not as likely.

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

is the snowfall accumulation maps that yall show how much will stick?

[Nederlander]

is the snowfall accumulation maps that yall show how much will stick?

The ones from twister data show actual snow on the ground for that timeframe I believe..

[Ntxw]

is the snowfall accumulation maps that yall show how much will stick?

Yeah, it shows how much snowfall is predicted to be on the ground.

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

oh alright thanks. so were looking at a nice swath of 1-3 inches from austin to college station?

[Ntxw]

Here is the temperature profile via 0z GFS for Houston for the important time frames.