Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

does that signal snow?

[Ntxw]

does that signal snow?

First chart is hour 48 when the precip and freezing line is approaching the area, temps aloft aren't cold enough yet (the lines are tightly together meaning the atmosphere is saturated but has warm temps to the right of 0c). Then at hour 54 the lines are moving apart signaling the atmosphere is no longer saturated (precip) as the temps are below freezing aloft (to the left 0c line) for snow. Could be a period in there for some snow, doesn't look like much right now via 0z GFS.

[Nederlander]

Not sure if I'm reading that right but it looks like there's a warm pocket between the 700-850 levels.. That's no good for snow right?

[Ntxw]

That's correct all the way down to the surface it's above freezing. There is a period between 48hr and 54hr where it's cold enough, just can't get that info with 6hr gaps in the GFS.

[southerngale]

Great discussion from Houston NWS. Wow.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
355 AM CST MON FEB 22 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
DID YOU ENJOY THE 70S TODAY? ENJOY THE CALM BEFORE STORM. A COLD
FRONT HAS CROSSED THE COAST AND HAS CLEARED OUT THE STUBBORN SEA
FOG PLAGUING THE COAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND MID DAY LEAVING SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A POTENT
SHORT WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE S/WV APPROACHES...IT WILL
TAP INTO THE MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE REGION. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS FRONT. AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO FALL...EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF THE COLUMN
WILL ENSUE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF DRY AIR AROUND 900 MB
SO ONCE PRECIP BEGINS TO FALL...SO WILL THE TEMPERATURES. ALL MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW 0 C NORTH OF A
CALDWELL TO TRINITY LINE BY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL START IN THE
MORNING BUT QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON LINE FOR TUESDAY.
HAVE BUMPED POPS UPWARD AREA WIDE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL
POLICIES DICTATE THAT A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN 2 OR
MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT 2 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON LINE.
THERE ARE MANY UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM. AM RATHER CONCERNED
THAT CONVECTIVE BANDING COULD SET UP FROM BRYAN TO CROCKETT...
SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED IN DFW A FEW WEEKS AGO. THIS WOULD BUMP
SNOW TOTALS UP SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. WHERE DOES
THE RAIN SNOW LINE SET UP? AM CONCERNED THAT MONTGOMERY AND
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTIES MAY GET ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS SOONER THAN MODELS SUGGEST. MODELS
INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN HOUSTON AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. COULD EVEN GET A RAIN SNOW MIX ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST. UPPER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES CONFLUENT BY 09Z WEDNESDAY AND
THE PRECIP SHOULD SHUT DOWN RATHER QUICKLY.

[funster]

Looks like the "oh so very reliable" up to an inch on grassy surfaces forecast is back for the Dallas area. Tho, it could be correct this go around.

[srainhoutx]

Good Morning. I see there was a little excitement overnight. I would not surprised if Advisories/Watches are hoisted into at least Harris County later today. Maybe txagwxman, Portastorm and I may see some snow after all.

Edit to add Tireman4 also as well as everyone in the Houston Metro Area. Further 'refinement' will probably come after the new 12Z data comes out.

[Tireman4]

Thank you Srainhoutx....we may get some accumulating snow after all.

[Portastorm]

NWSFO Austin/San Antonio has hoisted a Winter Storm Watch for our area for possible 2-4 inches accumulation of snow!!

I guess they're officially "on board" now with the event.

There will be a press conference today at the Portastorm Weather Center following today's 12z model runs.

[Tireman4]

NWSFO Austin/San Antonio has hoisted a Winter Storm Watch for our area for possible 2-4 inches accumulation of snow!!

I guess they're officially "on board" now with the event.

There will be a press conference today at the Portastorm Weather Center following today's 12z model runs.

Cool Porta...will this be broadcast on CNN, Fox, CNBC and others?

[CypressMike]

I hope we finally get some real snow here in NW Harris County. When I moved to Cypress, I thought I'd have a better chance of getting snow that those in the city and southern suburbs. Since I moved here in 2004, exactly the opposite is true. It just isn't fair!!!!!!!!!!

[Snowman67]

This mornings NWS HGX discussion is somewhat encouraging for those of us in far NW Harris County:

AM CONCERNED THAT MONTGOMERY AND
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTIES MAY GET ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS SOONER THAN MODELS SUGGEST.

[srainhoutx]

Here is what HGX was thinking this morning...

[txagwxman]

I plotted the hires WRF 4KM...it is colder than the NAM/WRF (00z). It takes College Station to 32F by tomorrow evening.
Maybe we will squeeze 1/4" out of this for Tomball/Spring tomorrow evening (maybe more).

[rkbjunior]

So you're telling me there's a chance!!!

Last night the Austin area was at the .5 inch mark. This morning we have a winter weather watch and now we're at 2-4 inches. The morning met on KVUE said the northern counties may get upgraded to a warning tomorrow.

[txagwxman]

NWSFO Austin/San Antonio has hoisted a Winter Storm Watch for our area for possible 2-4 inches accumulation of snow!!

I guess they're officially "on board" now with the event.

There will be a press conference today at the Portastorm Weather Center following today's 12z model runs.

Where is the party?

[Texas Snowman]

Glad things are trending your way Portastorm and all of the others down south and southeast. Enjoy your snowstorm!

[jg5894]

I hope we finally get some real snow here in NW Harris County. When I moved to Cypress, I thought I'd have a better chance of getting snow that those in the city and southern suburbs. Since I moved here in 2004, exactly the opposite is true. It just isn't fair!!!!!!!!!!

Hello everyone. I have been a member for awhile but this is my first post. Cypressmike i live South of Houston in the Clear Lake area and when i moved here back in 93 i never thought i would have seen as much snow as i have. I always thought that living north and west of town would be where the better chances for snow would be. The great thing about it is that my kids have enjoyed it. The 2004 event was my first real taste of snow and i was like a kid in a candy store!

[txagwxman]

I hope we finally get some real snow here in NW Harris County. When I moved to Cypress, I thought I'd have a better chance of getting snow that those in the city and southern suburbs. Since I moved here in 2004, exactly the opposite is true. It just isn't fair!!!!!!!!!!

Hello everyone. I have been a member for awhile but this is my first post. Cypressmike i live South of Houston in the Clear Lake area and when i moved here back in 93 i never thought i would have seen as much snow as i have. I always thought that living north and west of town would be where the better chances for snow would be. The great thing about it is that my kids have enjoyed it. The 2004 event was my first real taste of snow and i was like a kid in a candy store!

In 1973, it snowed 3x times in Houston...similar El Nino weather pattern (-NAO). We had 1-4" on each snow storm.

[vbhoutex]

I hope we finally get some real snow here in NW Harris County. When I moved to Cypress, I thought I'd have a better chance of getting snow that those in the city and southern suburbs. Since I moved here in 2004, exactly the opposite is true. It just isn't fair!!!!!!!!!!

Hello everyone. I have been a member for awhile but this is my first post. Cypressmike i live South of Houston in the Clear Lake area and when i moved here back in 93 i never thought i would have seen as much snow as i have. I always thought that living north and west of town would be where the better chances for snow would be. The great thing about it is that my kids have enjoyed it. The 2004 event was my first real taste of snow and i was like a kid in a candy store!

Now you get an "official" welcome from me! And DON'T STEAL MY SNOW!!!