SPO : EX TROPICAL CYCLONE SARAH

[JonathanBelles]

Did this actually cross the equator and build up, or was it an entirely different entity that built up?

[Sheronz]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 21/2002 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F CENTRE [998HPA] LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 158.2W AT
211800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST 14 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS BETWEEN 60 AND 150 NAUTICAL
MILES AWAY FROM CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST.

DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT CENTRE PERSISTS THOUGH EVIDENCE OF WESTERLY
SHEAR BEGINNING TO SHOW. BAND TO NORTH STRUGGLING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC
AGAINST SHEAR. CONVECTION ALONG THIS BAND WARMING AND LOSING
CURVATURE. OUTFLOW TO SOUTH ENHANCED BY TUTT TO SOUTH BUT
INCREASINGLY CONSTRAINED. OUTFLOW FAIR TO EAST AND NORTH BUT
RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. 11F LIES UNDER DIFFLUENT REGION AT AND ABOVE
250HPA. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR OVER SYSTEM AROUND 15KT. STRONGER SHEAR
JUST SOUTH ALONG TRACK. SST AROUND 30C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.4
WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=2.5. PT=2.5 MET=2.5. FT BASED ON DT
THUS, T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. SYSTEM EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHWEST UNDER EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO NORTHEAST AND SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
TO SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST BEFORE SOUTH AND
THEN SOUTHWEST TRACK. MOST MODELS AGREE ON LITTLE OR NO
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR 11F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS IS MODERATE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 11F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 220230 UTC OR EARLIER.

[Sheronz]

WTPS32 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210921Z FEB 10//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 9.6S 157.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S 157.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 11.5S 157.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 13.5S 158.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 15.0S 159.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.9S 161.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 19.2S 164.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.7S 166.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.5S 170.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 10.1S 157.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. AS OF 1800Z THREE OUT OF THE FOUR FIXING
AGENCIES IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC HAVE ASSESSED THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AT 35 KNOTS, JUSTIFYING THE ISSUANCE OF
THIS WARNING. A 210829Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS RANGING FROM 30 TO 35
KNOTS AROUND A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE LLCC HAS
CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND CONSOLIDATE BETWEEN THE TIME OF THAT
PASS AND NOW GIVEN THE CONTINUED BUILD UP OF DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE LARGELY DIFFLUENT OVER THE
REGION WITH NO ONE WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW CHANNEL. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) IS LOW TO MODERATE, AND IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS AND PUSHES DOWNSTREAM. VWS IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SHORT TERM INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE WILL TURN
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST AND
BECOMES THE PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
TRANSIT ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS MID TO DEEP LAYER
RIDGING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AND QUICKLY
INTENSIFY IN AN IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). HOWEVER, AFTER
TAU 72 INTENSIFICATION SHOULD HALT WITH AN INCREASE IN VWS. OHC WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO TAPER AROUND THIS TIME. AS IS TYPICAL OF A FIRST
FORECAST THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT
THE FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LARGER
DEVIATIONS OCCURRING IN THE LATER TAUS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND
222100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
210921Z FEB 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW
210930). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 12 FEET.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Exposed

[HURAKAN]

21/2022 UTC 9.4S 158.0W T2.0/2.0 17P -- Southeast Pacific

30 knots

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 22/0226 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F CENTRE [997HPA] RE-LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 159.0W
AT 220000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES LATEST AMSUB PASS AND
VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST 07 KNOTS
AND EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS BETWEEN 60 AND
150 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

LLCC FULLY EXPOSED ABOUT 30NM WEST OF DEEP CONVECTION. CONVECTION
ALONG BAND TO NORTH STRUGGLING TO WRAP WHILST ALSO LOSING CURVATURE.
OUTFLOW FAIR TO EAST AND INHIBITED ELSEWHERE. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
OVER SYSTEM AROUND 30KT. SST 30C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.4 WRAP
ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=2.5. PT=2.0 MET=2.5. FT BASED ON DT
THUS, T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS. SYSTEM EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWEST UNDER
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO NORTHEAST AND SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO SOUTHEAST.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHWEST TRACK. MOST MODELS AGREE ON LITTLE
OR NO INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR 11F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 11F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 220830 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

22/0222 UTC 9.4S 159.2W T2.5/2.5 17P -- Southeast Pacific

35 knots

[HURAKAN]

Westerly shear

[cycloneye]

WTPS32 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 9.6S 159.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S 159.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 10.5S 159.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 12.1S 160.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 13.8S 161.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.5S 163.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.6S 166.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.6S 167.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 22.0S 168.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 9.8S 159.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 220600Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT A WEAKENING SYSTEM UNDER STRONG
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS). RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC LACKS CONVECTIVE BANDING AND IS DISPLACED
SOUTHWEST OF A LINEAR, ISOLATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
30 TO 45 KNOTS; 211932Z ASCAT DATA SHOWING 35-40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE; AND THE OVERALL WEAK CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE AND
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE MODEL
TRACKERS (ECMWF, UKMET, GFS, NOGAPS, GFDN, AND WBAR) ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT THIS TRACK. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAKER STEERING INFLUENCE. THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, PERSISTENT THROUGH TAU 120, CHARACTERIZED BY WESTERLY
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD TROUGHING AND MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). BASED ON THIS MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, TC 17P IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AND PEAK AT 50 KNOTS BY TAU 72
(SLIGHTLY BELOW PEAK OF 56 KNOTS IN STIPS GUIDANCE) THEN WEAKEN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS REPRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE FROM THE 21/18Z WARNING, WHICH INDICATED A PEAK INTENSITY OF
70 KNOTS. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY WEAKEN
BELOW 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG VWS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15 FEET.

[HURAKAN]

Not looking good

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 22/0826 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F CENTRE [997HPA] LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 159.7W AT
220600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES IR/EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTWEST 07 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS BETWEEN 60 AND 150 NAUTICAL
MILES AWAY FROM CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST.

LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED FROM DEEP CONVECTION. CONVECTION ALONG BAND TO
NORTH AND EAST STRUGGLING TO WRAP INTO LLCC. ORGANISATION POOR IN
THE LAST 3 HOURS. OUTFLOW FAIR TO EAST AND INHIBITED ELSEWHERE.
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR OVER SYSTEM AROUND 30KT. SST 30C. SYSTEM LIES TO
NORTH OF TUTT. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN YIELDING DT2.5.
PT=2.0 MET=2.5. FT BASED ON DT THUS, T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS. 11F MOVING
SOUTHWEST UNDER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE
ON A SOUTHWEST TRACK. MOST MODELS AGREE ON LITTLE OR NO
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR 11F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 11F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 221430 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

Continues badly shared

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 FEB 2010 Time : 145200 UTC
Lat : 10:13:04 S Lon : 159:28:21 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 992.2mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.3 3.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -43.8C Cloud Region Temp : -47.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.67 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 22/1429 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F CENTRE [1000HPA] LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 160.1W AT
221200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES IR/EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTWEST 07 KNOTS.

LLCC LIES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CONVECTION. CONVECTION ALONG BAND TO
NORTH AND EAST STRUGGLING TO WRAP INTO LLCC. ORGANISATION POOR IN
THE LAST 3 HOURS. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR OVER SYSTEM
AROUND 30KT. SST 30C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN YIELDING
DT1.5. PT=2.0 MET=1.5. FT BASED ON DT THUS, T1.5/1.5/W1.0/24HRS. 11F
MOVING SOUTHWEST UNDER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO SOUTHEAST INTO AREA OF
INCREASING SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHWEST TRACK. MOST
MODELS AGREE ON LITTLE OR NO INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR 11F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS IS LOW.

THIS IS THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 11F.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[DazzaMc]

Is anyone else a bit confused about 11F?

The media in NZ is reporting it as a Cyclone - all I can see is a TD...

[HURAKAN]

WTPS32 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 11.7S 160.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 160.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 13.7S 161.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.6S 163.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 160.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 615 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN DECOUPLED
FROM A MAJORITY OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
HOWEVER, IN THE PAST 3 HOURS, THE LLCC HAS MOVED UNDER AN AREA OF
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC
17P IS IN A REGION OF MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS
FROM PHFO AND PGTW. TC 17P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
INCREASING VWS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THE FORECASTED TRACK, BUT INDICATES INTENSITY VARIATIONS RANGING FROM
29 TO 49 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST FAVORS A
WEAKER SYSTEM AS TC 17P TRACKS INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). TC 17P IS CURRENTLY BELOW WARNING CRITERIA
AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A WEAK LLCC FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
BASED ON UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE, THERE IS THE POSSI-
BILITY THAT TC 17P COULD RE-INTENSIFY BEYOND TAU 24. FOR THIS REASON
TC 17P WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 15 FEET.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Is anyone else a bit confused about 11F?

The media in NZ is reporting it as a Cyclone - all I can see is a TD...

Welcome to S2k.

Only the JTWC has called this system a tropical cyclone, Fiji, which is the official agency in this part of the world, was calling it a tropical depression before canceling warnings. Now the JTWC has also canceled warnings and this system is dead. Shear was too much. It will be closely watched in case shear decreases.

[Sheronz]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 22/2331 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE [TD11F] [1002HPA] ANALYSEDY NEAR 12.3S 160.9W AT
222100UTC AND MOVING SOUTHERLY AT 05 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON
VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENCE FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS. ORGANISATION
HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. OUTFLOW TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM LIES ALONG AND SURFACE
TROUGH AND TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGH
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS PICKED UP THE SYSTEM WITH A SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.