Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[gboudx]

Portastorm - can you post a link to Jeff's site? Thanks.

jeff doesn't have a site. He sends this via email.

[Snowman67]

Portastorm - can you post a link to Jeff's site? Thanks.

jeff doesn't have a site. He sends this via email.

Thanks. How do you sign up to receive his email updates?

[double D]

Geez ... EWX is all over the map. I should have figured. First they issue a WSW for the Austin metro area and include a graphic for 2-4 inches of snow over all of Travis County. Now, they just issued an SPS at 10 am and say 1/2 to 1 inch accumulation. Clearly, they've trended for lighter amounts. My question ... based on what? The 12z NAM?

Totally agree with you. The WSW still says 2-4 inches, while the new graphic says .25-.50

[srainhoutx]

HGX Update...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1016 AM CST MON FEB 22 2010

.DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECTING THIS TO HOLD
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE ERODING FROM THE COAST
NORTH AND FROM THE WEST. HAVE PARED BACK THE AFTERNOON HIGHS AFTER
A COOL START IN THE 44-48 DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS SHOULD BE 53-55
NORTH AND 56-62 SOUTH AND THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUDS
ENDING 21Z AND LATER OVER THE AREAS SOUTH OF I-10.

AS FOR THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT TUESDAY HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES
TO THAT PORTION OF THE PACKAGE. THE NAM 06Z AND 12Z RUNS HAVE
TRENDED 10-40 MILES FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIP/SNOW.
WILL BE WAITING FOR THE GFS BEFORE ANY CHANGES WILL BE MADE.

[Portastorm]

Geez ... EWX is all over the map. I should have figured. First they issue a WSW for the Austin metro area and include a graphic for 2-4 inches of snow over all of Travis County. Now, they just issued an SPS at 10 am and say 1/2 to 1 inch accumulation. Clearly, they've trended for lighter amounts. My question ... based on what? The 12z NAM?

Totally agree with you. The WSW still says 2-4 inches, while the new graphic says .25-.50

The 12z NAM suggests 2-3 inches across much of Travis County and the Austin metro. The only thing I can figure is they looked at the 6z GFS and somehow got their "new" numbers. Regardless, I believe they're clueless right now.

And no ... I'm not -removed-! I haven't seen any model guidance that shows only 1/2 to 1 inch of snow for Austin.

[Nederlander]

here are the soundings for the Woodville, TX area... (this is about 60 miles north of Beaumont).. this looks to me like its good for snow! correct me if im wrong.. the only above freezing area is right at the surface..

[wxman57]

That's definitely a snow profile, Nederlander.

I actually like the 12Z GFS prediction (below) better than the 06Z. I think the 06Z run had too much accumulation too far south:

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Well here we are again... Ive been keeping up with the storm despite not posting. Been very busy lately. Right now im in Nacogdoches, just North of Lufkin and it looks like we will challenge the last snow storm we had. Again, it looks to be trending a bit further south which is good for Houston, but remember, the models do not do well with these Tx snowstorms. I expect more precip than they are predicting.

[Nederlander]

Well here we are again... Ive been keeping up with the storm despite not posting. Been very busy lately. Right now im in Nacogdoches, just North of Lufkin and it looks like we will challenge the last snow storm we had. Again, it looks to be trending a bit further south which is good for Houston, but remember, the models do not do well with these Tx snowstorms. I expect more precip than they are predicting.

Nacogdoches is looking great for some accumulations.. maybe 2-3 inches.. im heading up that way tomorrow evening for a little road trip.. probably wont go that far north, but somewhere between lufkin and woodville..

[Portastorm]

Well, here's my answer. They're going with the NAM. Oh geez.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1036 AM CST MON FEB 22 2010

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED AFTERNOON TEMPS AND SKY COVER. HAVE ALSO LOWERED THE TOTAL
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR WINTER WEATHER EVENT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATE THIS MORNING THE STRATUS DECK WAS ERODING TO THE EAST. THE
WEST TO EAST EROSION OF THE CLOUD DECK WILL OFFSET SOME OF THE CAA
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER LOOKING AT THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS...PREFER
THE COOLER GFS MOS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWFA FOR HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON.

WE ARE SCALING BACK ON THE TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS FORECASTED ON TUESDAY
WITH THE NAM SNOW ACCUMULATION OUTPUT BEING PREFERRED OVER THE GFS
AND ECMWF. LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY ALSO SUGGESTS THE LOWER SNOW TOTALS
FCST BY THE NAM TO BE A BETTER FIT GIVEN THE SFC TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE RAIN/SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER WE WILL KEEP THE
CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH CONFIGURATION ATTM. LLANO...BURNET AND
WILLIAMSON COUNTIES WILL LIKELY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SHOW AND THESE
COUNTIES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING.

[iorange55]

Lol they're going with the NAM? What in the heck? Have they see the way it has done in past winter events this year? My god.

[Nederlander]

Well, here's my answer. They're going with the NAM. Oh geez.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1036 AM CST MON FEB 22 2010

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED AFTERNOON TEMPS AND SKY COVER. HAVE ALSO LOWERED THE TOTAL
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR WINTER WEATHER EVENT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATE THIS MORNING THE STRATUS DECK WAS ERODING TO THE EAST. THE
WEST TO EAST EROSION OF THE CLOUD DECK WILL OFFSET SOME OF THE CAA
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER LOOKING AT THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS...PREFER
THE COOLER GFS MOS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWFA FOR HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON.

WE ARE SCALING BACK ON THE TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS FORECASTED ON TUESDAY
WITH THE NAM SNOW ACCUMULATION OUTPUT BEING PREFERRED OVER THE GFS
AND ECMWF. LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY ALSO SUGGESTS THE LOWER SNOW TOTALS
FCST BY THE NAM TO BE A BETTER FIT GIVEN THE SFC TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE RAIN/SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER WE WILL KEEP THE
CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH CONFIGURATION ATTM. LLANO...BURNET AND
WILLIAMSON COUNTIES WILL LIKELY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SHOW AND THESE
COUNTIES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING.

Hang in there Porta! Remember what happened to Dallas not too long ago...

[Tireman4]

I thought the NWS usually went with the GFS, or am I wrong? Or is that with each individual office?

[Portastorm]

Lol they're going with the NAM? What in the heck? Have they see the way it has done in past winter events this year? My god.

I know ... and here's the deal, I looked at the 12z NAM graphic and it shows 2-3 inches for Austin. So I really have no idea what they're doing in New Braunfels. Quite honestly, I'm hoping they're pulling a "Fort Worth" with their "accumulations on grassy surfaces only."

[gboudx]

Weather rock Porta.

[southerngale]

LCH NWS has shown rain/snow for me off and on the past few days. Now that my area actually looks a lot better on the snow maps (not sure what Euro and GGEM show), and the trend has been south, my forecast is all rain.
When you compare cities near the Liberty/Hardin county line and the Liberty/Jefferson county line, NWS HOU is definitely more on board than NWS LCH. (including cities right next to each other)

Of course, they may be right.

I tried to do a sounding for my location because the one for Beaumont doesn't specifically apply to where I am, but I don't know how to read the dern thing.


Edit: ooh, 12z GFS looks even better for here. Snow might even be over you, Nederlander!

[Tireman4]

Lol they're going with the NAM? What in the heck? Have they see the way it has done in past winter events this year? My god.

I know ... and here's the deal, I looked at the 12z NAM graphic and it shows 2-3 inches for Austin. So I really have no idea what they're doing in New Braunfels. Quite honestly, I'm hoping they're pulling a "Fort Worth" with their "accumulations on grassy surfaces only."

Maybe they are ready to go cold water tubing down the Guadalupe!!!

[Nederlander]

SG,

you want all the lines to be close together, to the left of the 0 degree diagonal line..

Here is the sounding for Beaumont.. If you look at the 0 degree mark, it has a line that slants upward to the right... follow that line,.. your other lines need to stay to the left of that diagonal line, otherwise your snow melts before it hits the ground... which seems to be what its doing here.. 800mb all the way to the surface looks to be above the mark.. i think that indicates melting snow... but you may see a few flakes without accumulation...

p.s. on the map, i pinpointed this on HWY 105 between BMT and Sour Lake

EDIT: The sounding is actually for Hwy 90 due south of Sour Lake.. Still pretty close

[wxman57]

It's a difficult situation. How does one define accumulation? A burst of snow lasting an hour or less could drop 3-4 inches of snow, and much of it may accumulate on elevated surfaces (cars) where it could be measured. But with air temps rising after the snow ends, the snow would melt within an hour or two.

Those maps that have been posted show accumulations at various intervals. They don't necessarily show the max accumulation at any one time.

I think 2-4" for Austin is reasonable.

[wxman57]

p.s. on the map, i pinpointed this on HWY 105 between BMT and Sour Lake

Note that on that twister site, the grid points for making sounds are rather far apart. Even though you may pinpoint a location, the actual plot could be for 40-50 miles north or south of that point. After plotting the sounding, go back to the map and zoom in to see the actual point that was plotted.