Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#8321 Postby Portastorm » Mon Feb 22, 2010 2:36 pm

srainhoutx wrote:Just an FYI. All the grids are being updated for Houston/Galveston. All are going higher with precip chances for tomorrow and tomorrow night and even areas near Hobby now say 1/2 accumulation possible. The further N and W you go on the point and click grids, the higher the snow totals FWIW.


How is it that Hobby gets a 1/2 inch and me here in Austin gets a half inch? Y'all will be warmer than me. Oh ... I'm going nuts trying to wrap my head around this "event!" :double:
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#8322 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Feb 22, 2010 2:37 pm

Oh goodness. Now I wonder what Houston Community College will do tomorrow, even HISD? They could be caught here right in the middle.
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#8323 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 22, 2010 2:40 pm

Looks like yet again temperatures are going to give all of us headaches :cry:
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#8324 Postby Nederlander » Mon Feb 22, 2010 2:40 pm

Tireman4 wrote:Oh goodness. Now I wonder what Houston Community College will do tomorrow, even HISD? They could be caught here right in the middle.

If houston does get snow, it wont be enough to cause any trouble with schools, etc.. thats unless of course we have some major model shifts in the next 24-36 hours... I just dont think its likely that houston will see much if any accumulation.. same for the golden triangle.. NW houston has a decent shot, but like i said, no major accumulations expected for H-Town
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#8325 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Feb 22, 2010 2:41 pm

Well I live in Humble, almost Kingwood...which is north of Houston...so I am not sure what I am expecting.
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#8326 Postby JenBayles » Mon Feb 22, 2010 2:42 pm

I haven't heard any news on accumulations in NW Harris county, but the new forecast has rain changing to snow tomorrow afternoon and snow all night tomorrow night. Montgomery county has a winter storm watch hoisted, so what gives for Harris county with the increasing snow forecast?
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Re:

#8327 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Feb 22, 2010 2:43 pm

JenBayles wrote:I haven't heard any news on accumulations in NW Harris county, but the new forecast has rain changing to snow tomorrow afternoon and snow all night tomorrow night. Montgomery county has a winter storm watch hoisted, so what gives for Harris county with the increasing snow forecast?



I think, Steve mentioned that the NWS is updating items right now ( grids and such). I bet you they will update packages this afternoon.
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Re:

#8328 Postby Nederlander » Mon Feb 22, 2010 2:44 pm

Tireman4 wrote:Well I live in Humble, almost Kingwood...which is north of Houston...so I am not sure what I am expecting.

I would say less than an inch..

Disclaimer: Not a pro met, just gathering data from models, etc.
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#8329 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 22, 2010 2:44 pm

Fyi, FW has winter storm warnings from Waco to Palestine and WWA for the rest of north Texas except the counties along the red river.
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Re: Re:

#8330 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Feb 22, 2010 2:47 pm

Nederlander wrote:
Tireman4 wrote:Well I live in Humble, almost Kingwood...which is north of Houston...so I am not sure what I am expecting.

I would say less than an inch..

Disclaimer: Not a pro met, just gathering data from models, etc.


Understood...I was thinking an inch...but we are not talking accumlating...but from start to finish....but who knows....

I am not a pro met either...just a weather weenie!!!!
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#8331 Postby WacoWx » Mon Feb 22, 2010 2:50 pm

can anyone do a temperature profile for the Waco area for me? After hearing things go back and forth, I'm starting to doubt my temps being cold enough.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#8332 Postby Nederlander » Mon Feb 22, 2010 2:55 pm

WacoWx wrote:can anyone do a temperature profile for the Waco area for me? After hearing things go back and forth, I'm starting to doubt my temps being cold enough.


Image
Here is the sounding (not sure how to do the temp profile..) but according to this, you look solid..
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#8333 Postby WacoWx » Mon Feb 22, 2010 2:59 pm

Nederlander, if I'm reading this correct, the temp at the surface is going to be a hair above 32? and what time is that sounding for? Is that taken before potential evap. cooling? the rest of the column looks tasty though!
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Re: Re:

#8334 Postby shibumi » Mon Feb 22, 2010 3:02 pm

Tireman4 wrote:
Nederlander wrote:
Tireman4 wrote:Well I live in Humble, almost Kingwood...which is north of Houston...so I am not sure what I am expecting.

I would say less than an inch..

Disclaimer: Not a pro met, just gathering data from models, etc.


Understood...I was thinking an inch...but we are not talking accumlating...but from start to finish....but who knows....

I am not a pro met either...just a weather weenie!!!!


That doesn't sound right to me...I saw an earlier post on the snow maps...those maps should be "Accumulating" snow maps...meaning measured snow on the ground...not how much has fallen and melted...snow fallen but not sticking as a measurement in snow inches is not a statistic that the NWS collects

It has to be accumulated as there is no way to measure what melts directly....you would have to take the liquid equivalent and use some assumed ratio to estimate it....

Thus you can have snow in your forecast...have it fall for some time, and have no accumulations....which means you can be outside of those snow maps and still see snow...
Last edited by shibumi on Mon Feb 22, 2010 3:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#8335 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Feb 22, 2010 3:03 pm

Image
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#8336 Postby wxman57 » Mon Feb 22, 2010 3:07 pm

WacoWx wrote:can anyone do a temperature profile for the Waco area for me? After hearing things go back and forth, I'm starting to doubt my temps being cold enough.


12Z GFS shows temps right at freezing with dew points slightly below during the precipitation.

Image

The sounding for 9am showing an all-snow event starting around 6am.
Image
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#8337 Postby txagwxman » Mon Feb 22, 2010 3:09 pm

If it happens, it won't happen until after 7PM tomorrow in Houston...boundary layer temps are still too warm until then.

Latest NAM 540 thickness line still north of IAH/DWH at 0z.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#8338 Postby Nederlander » Mon Feb 22, 2010 3:09 pm

WacoWx wrote:Nederlander, if I'm reading this correct, the temp at the surface is going to be a hair above 32? and what time is that sounding for? Is that taken before potential evap. cooling? the rest of the column looks tasty though!


the sounding i posted is for 36 hours out from the 12z.. so midnight tomorrow night..
Last edited by Nederlander on Mon Feb 22, 2010 3:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#8339 Postby msstateguy83 » Mon Feb 22, 2010 3:10 pm

come on now lets get this thing over with :lol: iam all excited now about this coming wkend it LOOKS BIG IMO... I MEAN BIG the biggest might be saved for last.... looks like one heck of a snow storm for my area up into oklahoma....
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Re: Re:

#8340 Postby wxman57 » Mon Feb 22, 2010 3:11 pm

shibumi wrote:
That doesn't sound right to me...I saw an earlier post on the snow maps...those maps should be "Accumulating" snow maps...meaning measured snow on the ground...not how much has fallen and melted...snow fallen but not sticking as a measurement in snow inches is not a statistic that the NWS collects

It has to be accumulated as there is no way to measure what melts directly....you would have to take the liquid equivalent and use some assumed ratio to estimate it....

Thus you can have snow in your forecast...have it fall for some time, and have no accumulations....which means you can be outside of those snow maps and still see snow...


They are snow accumulation maps, but they may not represent snow in the ground at any one time. Consider if you get an inch of snow in a burst. You can measure it - an inch. The snow melts over the next hour then you get another inch. That's 2" accumulated snow, but you don't have 2" on the ground at any one time. It's more complex when snow is falling then melting not long after then it snows again. At least, that's the way I understand it.
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