Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

winter storm warning for us here in college station!!!

from hgx nws

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM
TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS
ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER TO
THE REGION. RAIN WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY CHANGE
TO A RAIN SNOW MIX NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO HUNTSVILLE TO GROVETON
LINE BY LATE MORNING. THEN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON THE RAIN
SNOW MIX WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD REACHING A COLUMBUS TO CONROE TO
NEAR LIVINGSTON BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SNOW MIX SHOULD CHANGE
OVER TO JUST SNOW NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO TRINITY LINE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE WARM GROUND NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT DURING THE EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL TO NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO PILE UP. GRASSY AREA WILL HAVE THE
GREATER ACCUMULATIONS WITH MOST ROADS BEING A SLUSHY MIX. ELEVATED
ROADWAYS MAY EXPERIENCE ICY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN THE WARNED
AREA. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CALDWELL TO HUNTSVILLE
TO LIVINGSTON MAY RECEIVE AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. THE GREATER
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE 3 TO 4 INCHES IN MADISON...HOUSTON...AND
TRINITY COUNTIES. NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO TOMBALL TO SEGNO LINE
SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 3 AM WEDNESDAY.

THE ICY ROADS MAY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL AFTER 9 AM WEDNESDAY.

THIS IS A DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER SITUATION AND IF TEMPERATURES
ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FORECAST COULD HAVE
TREMENDOUS IMPLICATIONS ON WHERE SNOW FALLS AND HOW MUCH WILL
ACCUMULATE.

[txagwxman]

Wxman57 or txagwxman ... when you see a particular progged surface temperature per a given computer model, does the model figure evaporative cooling into its equation?

In other words, if the 12z GFS says it will be 35 degrees at 12 noon tomorrow in Austin while snowing, has the model evaluated the potential evaporative cooling effect into its guess at what the temperature will be at that time?

GFS/NAM computer code accounts for evaporative cooling in all precipitation processes and takes into account the latent heat from melting of snow.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

46 here in Nacogdoches. Feels cold as you know what out there. This is shaping up just like the last storm. Im expecting more precip than they are forecasting.

Question, was a gulf low expected to pop up during this event? Im not suprised but last night when i did some analysis of the storm, i didnt see a gulf low....

[Ntxw]

NAM and GFS aren't in line with where the heaviest precip falls, one of these two is going to be in trouble and we are closely approaching the 24 hour point.

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

ntxw you thinking 2-4 inches here in cs?
and how much you think in san antonio?

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
259 PM CST MON FEB 22 2010

...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS
ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER TO
THE REGION. RAIN WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND END
BETWEEN 11 PM TUESDAY EVENING AND 3 AM WEDNESDAY.

TXZ200-210>213-226-227-230500-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WW.Y.0002.100223T2000Z-100224T1200Z/
AUSTIN-COLORADO-FORT BEND-HARRIS-LIBERTY-WALLER-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLVILLE...BROOKSHIRE...CLEVELAND...
COLUMBUS...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EL CAMPO...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...KATY...LIBERTY...MISSOURI CITY...PASADENA...PIERCE...
PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SEALY...SUGAR LAND...
TOMBALL...WEIMAR...WHARTON
259 PM CST MON FEB 22 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS
ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER TO
THE REGION. RAIN WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING THEN QUICKLY CHANGE
OVER DURING THE AFTERNOON TO A RAIN SNOW MIX. THIS RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
MOST AREAS IN THE ADVISORY EXPERIENCING RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE 6 PM.
WITH THE WARM GROUND NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT DURING THE EVENING SNOW MAY BEGIN TO
STICK ON GRASSY AREAS AND CAR ROOFS. THE RAIN AND SNOW MIX MAY
CHANGE OVER TO JUST SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS DURING
THE LATE EVENING THROUGH 3 AM TIME FRAME SHOULD RANGE FROM ONE
QUARTER TO ONE AND HALF INCHES AND BE FROM I-10 NORTHWARD. SOME
ELEVATED ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES MAY GET ICY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF AUSTIN...WALLER...HARRIS...AND LIBERTY COUNTIES.

THIS IS A DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER SITUATION AND IF TEMPERATURES
ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FORECAST COULD HAVE
TREMENDOUS IMPLICATIONS ON WHERE SNOW FALLS AND HOW MUCH WILL
ACCUMULATE.

[WacoWx]

43 right now and doubtful that we make it to our proj'd high of 48.

[Tejas89]

So it begins. Radar is starting to light up in West/SW Texas.

[Weatherdude20]

UPDATE: Still 37 here, forecast high of 43. snow developing in panhandle.

And just for the record I think College Station will get 2-4"+

[Nederlander]

NAM and GFS aren't in line with where the heaviest precip falls, one of these two is going to be in trouble and we are closely approaching the 24 hour point.

new NAM went south...

[txagwxman]

This is from HOU NWS.




By comparison, yesterday I was in the mainly cold rain area (well between the two areas to be exact, in the black. lol) Now I'm in the rain/snow (under an inch of snow possible) area, not TOO terribly far from the next area. Keep shifting south!

Yesterday, College Station, Huntsville, Lufkin, etc. were in the 1-2 inch area. Now they're in the 2-4 inch area.

The trend looks good for SE TX.

Yesterday:

Actually the latest computer models have trended the other way (18z NAM, 12Z ECMWF).

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

really?! 2-4 inches +? wow i hope so!

[gofrogs2]

GFS says 5 inches for fort worth on the 12 gfs and i also think that the models are downplaying the amount of moisutre.

[Weatherdude20]

Even NWS says 2-4 for CS.

Update: Houston also under Winter Weather Advisory.

[Weatherdude20]

GFS says 5 inches for fort worth on the 12 gfs and i also think that the models are downplaying the amount of moisutre.

Yeah, I saw that, starting to look better. I warned that 24 hours or under we would be back in the game...

EDIT: Amarillo reporting 24, Light Snow/Fog.

[Nederlander]

Im not liking the new NAM.. I know its the 18z NAM, but it looks drier and warmer to me.. everything south and east of the Navasota area is above freezing...

edit: I am also not seeing much, if any, precipitation for DFW

[Weatherdude20]

We shall see

EDIT:Radar indicates nice snow band heading East towards Amarillo.

[Texas2Florida]

GFS says 5 inches for fort worth on the 12 gfs and i also think that the models are downplaying the amount of moisutre.

Yeah, I saw that, starting to look better. I warned that 24 hours or under we would be back in the game...

EDIT: Amarillo reporting 24, Light Snow/Fog.

I too was wondering how precip would develop in the Panhandle, and skip us almost completely. I warned them at work when we started getting the "less than an inch" forecast.

[Nederlander]

GFS says 5 inches for fort worth on the 12 gfs and i also think that the models are downplaying the amount of moisutre.

Yeah, I saw that, starting to look better. I warned that 24 hours or under we would be back in the game...

EDIT: Amarillo reporting 24, Light Snow/Fog.

I too was wondering how precip would develop in the Panhandle, and skip us almost completely. I warned them at work when we started getting the "less than an inch" forecast.

well it looks like the models are diving the system southeast instead of it moving straight west-east..

[txagwxman]

Well, 18z is colder than the 12z, so I guess game is back on for Tomball....keep fingers crossed...tomorrow late 6PM.